CFB Week 10 Betting Guide: Public Sides, Sneaky Totals and More
You know you’ve reached the sweet spot of the college football season when midweek MACtion starts, setting up the stage for a big Week 10 of action.
LSU at Alabama: The Crimson Tide are currently -21 vs. LSU in the most-bet game of the weekend. Both teams are coming off a Bye week and should be fresh, and we’ve seen spread bets fairly split so far on both sides. LSU has really struggled as an underdog in the past, especially 7+ points.
Virginia Tech at Miami FL: The Hurricanes actually opened -3.5 at BetOnline but sharp money was all over Va Tech early. The rest of the market opened VT as favorites and the Hokies have been -2/-2.5 all week. Miami has had a great season at 7-0 SU but they’re getting <40% of tickets.
Clemson at NC State: Clemson has steadily been receiving more than 75% of spread tickets but Pinnacle still hasn’t budged off -7. Most of the market lists the Tigers -7.5, so it’s interesting that Pinnacle refuses to move off the key number despite heavy public action on them. Could be a nice contrarian spot on NC State if you can get +7.5/+8, especially since bettors are scared off after their blowout loss at ND last week.
Major Early Line Moves at BetOnline:
Mizzou (+3 to -3.5) v FLA
Va Tech (+3.5 to -2.5) at MIAMI FL
Mich St (+13 to +7.5) v PSU
So Miss (+10 to +5.5) at TENN
Most Lopsided Tickets in Highly Bet Games:
Notre Dame 81%
Penn State 80%
Most bet games of the week so far are:
LSU at Alabama
Virginia Tech at Miami FL
Oklahoma at Oklahoma State
Most Extreme Totals
Highest: Oklahoma/Oklahoma St 76
Lowest: Michigan/Minnesota 41
Other News and Nuggets:
The Army/Air Force total was on the move quickly, which we predicted– Unders have gone 28-8 when service academies meet since 2005.
Total opened 66.5 at BetOnline and now down to 56.5 https://t.co/3Y7QPYylMz
— ArsenalDMC (@ArsenalDMC) November 1, 2017
ACC Unders are 28-8 this season, and historically they’ve hit at a 56.3% rate. This weekend we’ve seen big movement on the Under between Va Tech and Miami FL (50 to 46.5), while two of the best Under teams in the nation face off (Syracuse/FSU total of 50).
If you've been betting the Over when these teams play, they've killed your bankroll
Best UNDER teams in NCAAF 2017 pic.twitter.com/MknmZhmFCJ
— Bet Labs Sports (@Bet_Labs) November 1, 2017
Keeping with the trend of Unders, weather could play a big impact on a number of games this weekend including Hawaii at UNLV. Totals in games with high expected winds tend to get steamed toward the UNDER.
FSU is 0-5-2 ATS, only team left without a cover this season. Seminoles opened -4 and moved to -3.5 vs. Syracuse, but they’re now at -5. It’s still by far the lowest favorite they’ve been against the Orange lately:
2017 FSU -4
2016 FSU -23
2015 FSU -16
2014 FSU -23
2013 FSU -37.5
FSU was getting just 22% of spread bets early in the week and are now at 43%, still not a lot of support for a home favorite.
The Florida Gators will play their first game under interim HC Randy Shannon, and bettors seem to like the switch from Jim McElwain– they’re getting nearly 60% of spread bets at Missouri on Saturday. Public bettors have been all over the Under too, with 84% of tickets and 90% of the money. Right now Scott Frost is the -130 favorite to be new permanent head coach at Florida.
The worst game of the weekend may be Baylor (1-7 SU) at Kansas (0-8 SU). The Bears are -8 to cover on the road, and we’ve never tracked an 0-8 team to be this big of favorites.
BetDSI recently posted odds for potential NCAAF Playoff games– here’s a look:
Georgia vs. Alabama (-6)
Clemson (-7) vs. Miami FL
Clemson (-4.5) vs. Virginia Tech
Wisconsin vs. Ohio State (-9.5)
BetOnline recently posted odds to make the NCAAF Playoff. Alabama and Ohio State are the big favorites right now.
You can track all the latest Week 10 odds, betting percentages, weather, injuries and more here.