Alabama and Ohio State Big Favorites to Make NCAAF Playoff

Alabama and Ohio State Big Favorites to Make NCAAF Playoff

On Tuesday (10/31), the first NCAAF Playoff rankings came out and Georgia was the surprising #1. This is largely based on their performance and strength of schedule so far, but the market and bettors know they wouldn’t be favored on a neutral field against Alabama– 5Dimes currently lists Alabama -7 vs. Georgia for a potential SEC Title Game matchup in December.

On Thursday (11/2), BetOnline released updated odds to make the 4-team playoff and Alabama (-800) and Ohio State (-260) are the big favorites. Here’s a look at the odds changes since the preseason:

SchoolMake Playoff
(Nov 9)
Miss Playoff
(Nov 9)
Make Playoff
(Nov 2)
Miss Playoff
(Nov 2)
Make Playoff
(Oct 18)
Miss Playoff
(Oct 18)
Make Playoff
(Aug 19)
Miss Playoff
(Aug 19)
Make Playoff
(June 17)
Miss Playoff
(June 17)
Alabama-1000+600-800+500-800+500-195+155-195+155
Georgia-150+120+110-140-130+100+825-1725+825-1725
Clemson+110-140+200-260+300-400+700-1500+600-1200
Wisconsin+175-220+260-350+130-160+725-1545+700-1500
Notre Dame+175-220+300-400+600-1000+1300-3000+1300-3000
Oklahoma+200-260+400-600+450-700+250-350+250-350
Miami Florida+260-350+300-400+350-500+1200-2600+1100-2300
TCU+400-600+800-1500+260-350+1700-5100+1350-3250
Washington+500-800+1200-2500+800-1500+425-675+425-675
Oklahoma StateN/AN/A+500-800+600-1000+800-1700+700-1500
Penn StateN/AN/A+350-500+130-160+450-750+450-750
AuburnN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+500-900+600-1200
USCN/AN/A+2000-5000+400-600+145-185+140-180
MichiganN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+500-900+500-900
Florida StateN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+150-190+145-185
West VirginiaN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+7000-30000+2300-6900
LSUN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+450-750+450-750
TexasN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+850-1750+850-1750
FloridaN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+850-1750+825-1725
LouisvilleN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+1000-2000+1000-2000
Virginia TechN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+1400-3600+1500-4500
StanfordN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+1600-4800+1600-4800
Kansas StateN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+1600-4800+1200-2600
OregonN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+1700-5100+1700-5100
UCLAN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+1800-5400+1800-5400
Washington StateN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+1900-5700+1700-5100
South FloridaN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+3000-11000+4000-16000
NC StateN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+3700-14100+3000-11000
BYUN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+3700-14100+3000-11000
Texas A&MN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+3700-14100+3100-11300
NebraskaN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+3700-14100+3000-11000
UtahN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+5500-21500+3400-12800
ColoradoN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+6000-24000+3300-12100
TennesseeN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+1500-4500+1400-3600
NorthwesternN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+6000-24000+3500-13500
IowaN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+6000-24000+4300-16900
ArkansasN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+7000-30000+6000-24000
DukeN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+15000-75000+9500-45500
MinnesotaN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+8000-35000+4500-17500
Arizona StateN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+8000-35000+7000-30000
Mississippi StateN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+8000-35000+7000-30000
BaylorN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+8000-35000+3300-12100
Michigan StateN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+8000-35000N/AN/A
North CarolinaN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+8500-37500+6000-24000
PittsburghN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+8500-37500+4000-16000
Georgia TechN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+10000-50000+4000-16000
Boise StateN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+10000-50000+4500-17500
South CarolinaN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+13500-67500+9000-41000
IndianaN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+15000-75000+12500-62500
Ohio StateN/AN/A-260+200-160+130+140-180+160-210

If the playoffs started today based on best odds, it would be:
(1) Alabama vs. (4) Clemson
(2) Ohio St vs. (3) Georgia

Some fans may want to see another title rematch between Alabama and Clemson, but a matchup in the semifinals would be really interesting too. Clemson has a tough game at NC State this weekend followed by a home matchup against struggling FSU before finishing the year with Citadel and South Carolina.

Notre Dame and Miami-FL are both listed at +300, but they’ll face off against each other on Saturday (11/11) in Miami. The Hurricanes are underdogs this week vs. VT, would maybe be small underdogs vs. ND, and would definitely be underdogs in the ACC Title Game vs. Clemson. You may be better off just betting on the Miami moneylines in those games than taking +300 to make the playoff.

Oklahoma (+400) and Oklahoma State (+500) have similar odds to make the playoff, but they play one another this weekend and both have 1 loss. The Cowboys are listed -2.5 against the Sooners, and the public is hammering Oklahoma as short road underdogs. The loser of this game is likely eliminated from playoff contention.

Penn State’s loss to Ohio State last weekend only moved their odds to +350, so they’re still very much alive. Wisconsin is the other team in the Big Ten to keep an eye on, as they’re an undefeated 8-0 and great position to reach the Big Ten title game.

Alabama is -140 to win the National Championship with the field listed at +120. You can check out updated odds for all teams here.

Do you agree that Alabama and Ohio State are near locks at this point? Are there any darkhorses like Oklahoma State or Washington who could sneak in?

Dan McGuire

Dan McGuire is the Operations Manager and soccer specialist at Sports Insights. You can find him on Twitter (@ArsenalDMC) and he can be reached directly at dan.mcguire@actionnetwork.com.

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