CFB Week 11 Betting Guide: Spartans Most Popular Underdog Ever
Last weekend, two big upsets in the Big Ten (Michigan St over Penn St, Iowa over Ohio St) shook up the playoff picture and opened the door for a number of teams like Notre Dame and Miami to play their way in. This weekend the Irish and Hurricanes meet in Miami in the most heavily bet game of the entire slate, and it will be a huge decision for sportsbooks as the public has loaded up on Notre Dame on the road.
There are a number of other key matchups like Georgia/Auburn which could really change the playoff landscape. BetOnline actually opened Auburn as 2-point favorites but that the spread is now Auburn +2 around the market. Only 30% of tickets are taking the Tigers to cover at home, and this could be a great contrarian spot for Auburn to ruin UGA’s playoff/title hopes.
In the Big-12, TCU travels to Oklahoma to take on the Sooners in what could be a make-or-break game for the conference as a whole. Oklahoma has been impressive but lost at home to Iowa State, so they absolutely cannot afford to slip up again. Spread bets have been fairly even but sharp money is taking TCU, moving the line from +8 to +6.5.
Most Lopsided Week 11 Public Wagers:
82% on Michigan St (+17) at Ohio St
81% on South Carolina (-5.5) vs. Florida
80% on Alabama (-13) at Mississippi St
If you’re surprised to see a big underdog as the trendiest pick of the day, you are not alone. Coming off a big home win against Penn State last week, more than 80% of bettors like the Spartans to cover again this weekend. How rare is this? Well, we’ve actually never tracked an underdog of 14+ points to get so much public action. The previous high for an underdog this big was Nebraska (+17) getting 72% of spread bets at Ohio State last season. The Cornhuskers lost that game 62-3. Fade. The. Trendy. Underdog.
Highest Ticket Counts:
Notre Dame at Miami
Georgia at Auburn
Michigan St at Ohio St
Biggest Line Moves Since Opening:
Central Florida -37 to -40 vs. UConn
Wake Forest +2 to -1 at Syracuse
Highest Total on the Board:
Arizona/Oregon State 71.5
Lowest Total on the Board:
Florida/South Carolina 43.5
Others News and Nuggets for Week 11:
FSU’s downfall has moved the Seminoles from +2 over the summer to +17.5 at Clemson. The Seminoles are the only team in the nation yet to cover a game this year (0-6-2 ATS). FSU as an underdog of 14+ pts: 1-3 SU and 1-3 ATS since 2005.
At the beginning of the week I highlighted how Army and Air Force may be good fade material this weekend since service academies struggle after playing one another. While it still may be a good spot to fade them, I’m laying off both since their opponents are VERY trendy wagers: Duke -3 (64% of bets) at Army, and Wyoming +3 (69% of bets) at Air Force.
Alabama opened -14 at Mississippi State and moved to -14.5 before coming down to the current number of -13. The Tide have been double-digit favorites in 75% of their games over the last ten seasons including 35 straight games as a closing favorite. We’ve seen 80% of bets take the Crimson Tide but reverse-line movement is on the Bulldogs as big home underdogs.
After getting blown out at Missouri last week, the Gators opened +7.5 at South Carolina. Florida will again play under interim HC Randy Shannon after firing Jim McElwain last week and public bettors have NO faith in the Gators, getting just 19% of spread bets. Despite such little support, Florida has actually come down to +5.5, signaling sharp money on the road underdogs.