CFB Week 11 Opening Line Report: Odds Flipped For Marquee Matchups
Week 10 brought us two big upsets in the Big Ten with Ohio State and Penn State both going down as road favorites. This was great news for the rest of the schools around the nation competing for a playoff spot, and this weekend we’ve got huge matchups including Notre Dame/Miami, TCU/Oklahoma and UGA/Auburn. Below we’ve compared the summer lookahead lines from Golden Nugget to opening and current odds from Bookmaker:
|G Nugget Lookahead
|Notre Dame at Miami||ND -3||ND -2.5||Miami -6|
|Georgia at Auburn||UGA -2.5||UGA -2||Auburn -10|
|Iowa at Wisconsin||Wisc -12||Wisc -13.5||Wisc -16.5|
|USC at Colorado||USC -13.5||USC -12.5||USC -13.5|
|Michigan St at Ohio St||Ohio St -16||Ohio St -17||Ohio St -24.5|
|Arkansas at LSU||LSU -17.5||LSU -17||LSU -16.5|
|Florida at South Carolina||SC -7.5||SC -7.5||Fla -4.5|
|FSU at Clemson||Clem -17.5||Clem -17.5||Clem -2|
|West Virginia at Kansas St||Off Board||Off Board||K State -9.5|
|TCU at Oklahoma||Okla -7||Okla -8||Okla -13|
Notre Dame at Miami (8pm ET Saturday): The Hurricanes are home underdogs once again. Miami opened +1.5 at BetOnline and quickly moved to +4, while Bookmaker and Pinnacle opened Miami +2.5 and moved to +3. Right now most of the market lists the Hurricanes as 3-point home underdogs, and the Irish are getting nearly all the tickets and money.
Georgia at Auburn (3:30 pm ET Saturday): BetOnline opened this line too short as well with the Tigers -2. That quickly moved to UGA -2, and the market is now at UGA -2.5. Just like the Irish, the Bulldogs are getting nearly 80% of early tickets and 90% of early money. Sharp money may come in if this line hits Auburn +3 or +3.5. The lookahead line over the summer was Auburn -10 and they’re an exceptionally strong team this year, showing just how good UGA has been to move the odds.
Others News and Nuggets:
FSU’s downfall has moved the Seminoles from +2 over the summer to +17.5 at Clemson. This game also got moved from 8 pm ET to 3:30 pm ET. FSU is the only team in the nation without covering a game (0-6-2 ATS). FSU as an underdog of 14+ pts: 1-3 SU and 1-3 ATS since 2005.
Army and Air Force may be good fade material this weekend, as service academies struggle the following week after matching up. Army hosts Duke this weekend while Air Force hosts Wyoming.
Alabama opened -14 at Mississippi State and moved to -14.5. The Tide have been double-digit favorites in 75% of their games over the last ten seasons including 35 straight games as a closing favorite.
After getting blown out at Missouri last week, the Gators opened +7.5 at South Carolina. Florida will again play under interim HC Randy Shannon after firing Jim McElwain last week.
The summer market seemed to get it right on the big favorites– Ohio State, USC, Wisconsin, and LSU are all still double-digit favorites this weekend.
Big underdogs keep crushing it this season– teams closing above 30+ points have gone 54-21 ATS this year. This weekend Kansas is +33 vs. Texas, and Rutgers is +30.5 at Penn State.
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