College Football Week 4 Marketwatch
I say it every week, but the season is already flying by. This weekend we’ve got two Top-25 matchups (TCU at Oklahoma State, Mississippi State at Georgia) which are both seeing lopsided action on one side. Below we’ve highlighted some of the major news for Week 4:
- Our historical data only goes back to 2005, but Florida has been favored against Kentucky every season. The Gators have gone 9-3 ATS in those games, but this weekend they’re only listed at -1.5. Despite getting nearly 70% of tickets, Florida has actually dropped from the opening line of -5.5 at BetOnline. It’s possible that the Gators could close as underdogs vs. Kentucky for the first time in 12+ years.
- We recently wrote about Baylor’s terrible 0-3 SU and ATS start, and the Bears are getting just 11% of spread bets at the time of publication. The lookahead line from the summer (+8 vs. Oklahoma) has moved nearly 20 points (now +28 vs. Oklahoma) in a matter of months, but they may be a nice contrarian play.
- There may also be value on another Big-12 squad this weekend: Kansas. If you follow college football at all, you know that the Jayhawks have really struggled and are nothing like their basketball counterpart. Similar to Baylor, they’re getting less than 15% of spread bets, and could be another decent contrarian play.
- Earlier in the week, Michigan was a nice contrarian play below -10. Now that bettors have caught on and moved the line, there may not be much value. Spread tickets have also evened up, with 48% on Michigan and 52% on Purdue.
- We’ve seen some great reverse-line movement on Stanford this week, opening -6.5 and moving up to -8 despite <40% of spread bets. The public continues to love Josh Rosen and UCLA, but another failed cover and we could see bettors jumping ship.
Oregon/Arizona State 75.5
SMU/Arkansas State 73.5
Kent +44 at Louisville
UNLV +40 at Ohio State
Most Lopsided Spread Bets:
Key Players Still Questionable This Week: