College Football Week 4 Marketwatch

College Football Week 4 Marketwatch

I say it every week, but the season is already flying by. This weekend we’ve got two Top-25 matchups (TCU at Oklahoma State, Mississippi State at Georgia) which are both seeing lopsided action on one side. Below we’ve highlighted some of the major news for Week 4:

  • Our historical data only goes back to 2005, but Florida has been favored against Kentucky every season. The Gators have gone 9-3 ATS in those games, but this weekend they’re only listed at -1.5. Despite getting nearly 70% of tickets, Florida has actually dropped from the opening line of -5.5 at BetOnline. It’s possible that the Gators could close as underdogs vs. Kentucky for the first time in 12+ years.
  • We recently wrote about Baylor’s terrible 0-3 SU and ATS start, and the Bears are getting just 11% of spread bets at the time of publication. The lookahead line from the summer (+8 vs. Oklahoma) has moved nearly 20 points (now +28 vs. Oklahoma) in a matter of months, but they may be a nice contrarian play.
  • There may also be value on another Big-12 squad this weekend: Kansas. If you follow college football at all, you know that the Jayhawks have really struggled and are nothing like their basketball counterpart. Similar to Baylor, they’re getting less than 15% of spread bets, and could be another decent contrarian play.
  • Earlier in the week, Michigan was a nice contrarian play below -10. Now that bettors have caught on and moved the line, there may not be much value. Spread tickets have also evened up, with 48% on Michigan and 52% on Purdue.
  • We’ve seen some great reverse-line movement on Stanford this week, opening -6.5 and moving up to -8 despite <40% of spread bets. The public continues to love Josh Rosen and UCLA, but another failed cover and we could see bettors jumping ship.

Highest Totals:
Oregon/Arizona State 75.5
SMU/Arkansas State 73.5
WVU/Kansas 71.5

Lowest Totals:
Alabama/Vanderbilt 43
Florida/Kentucky 44
Tulane/Army 44.5

Biggest Underdogs:
Kent +44 at Louisville
UNLV +40 at Ohio State

Most Lopsided Spread Bets:
Oklahoma
West Virginia
Georgia Tech
Virginia Tech

Key Players Still Questionable This Week:

Track all the latest Odds, Betting Percentages, Line Moves and more

Baker Mayfield and Mason Rudolph lead the Heisman Trophy Odds

Alabama still alone at the top of the National Championship Odds

Dan McGuire

Dan McGuire is the Operations Manager and soccer specialist at Sports Insights. You can find him on Twitter (@ArsenalDMC) and he can be reached directly at dan.mcguire@actionnetwork.com.

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