Bettors Done With Baylor After 0-3 ATS Start

Bettors Done With Baylor After 0-3 ATS Start

If you’ve been betting on Baylor the last couple years, it hasn’t gone very well. They went just 3-9 ATS last season and are off to an 0-3 ATS start this season (based on closing lines). Some bettors were able to cover last week if they got +14.5 for a line, but that’s the only thing that’s gone right for Baylor wagerers. The Bears have also lost straight up to Liberty at home as 33.5-point favorites and UTSA at home as 11.5-point favorites. Probably not a lot of moneyline tickets on Baylor in those games but they surely ruined a few parlays and teasers.

In the first two games of the season against Liberty and UTSA, Baylor received more than 60% of spread bets. After they weren’t even close to covering either of those games, only 30% of bettors took them last week at Duke in a 34-20 loss. They opened +13.5, moved to +14.5, and closed +10.5. This weekend at home against Oklahoma, they’re receiving just 11% of spread tickets, opened +25.5, and have moved to +27.5.

Over the summer, Baylor was listed +8 in this matchup, so we’ve seen nearly a 20-point swing in just a matter of months. If the line gets back to +28 anywhere, it may be worth betting though. Teams that go on a 3-game ATS losing streak early in the season are able to cover at a 56% rate in the following game. The record is far better when only looking at underdogs, hitting at a 61% rate. Add in the fact that this will be a highly bet game at night and there could be some great contrarian value on Baylor at home.

Dan McGuire

Dan McGuire is the Operations Manager and soccer specialist at Sports Insights. You can find him on Twitter (@ArsenalDMC) and he can be reached directly at dan.mcguire@actionnetwork.com.

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