Public Bettors Still Fading LSU
LSU hardly got any public support against the Gators last Saturday, consistently attracting <30% of spread bets throughout the week. Despite heavy public action on the Gators, sharper money moved LSU all the way from +6.5 to -2 by game time. With such a low closing total of 42, the game finished right in between the opening and closing numbers with LSU beating Florida 17-16 in ‘The Swamp’. Almost all early tickets cashed on LSU, but very late bettors chasing the steam did not.
Despite the win and cover, public bettors still don’t have faith in LSU this weekend as they’re getting just 13% of spread bets at home against Auburn. The line opened same as last week, LSU +6.5, and the Tigers initially dropped to +6 at some books before public bettors pounded Auburn back up to -7. However, most of the market has not touched +7.5, indicating that sharps would be flowing in on LSU at that number.
It hasn’t been pretty for home teams ATS this season, covering at just a 40.5% rate heading into Week 7. Public bettors also must like the fact that Auburn has looked very impressive since losing to Clemson, earning blowout wins over Ole Miss, Mississippi State, and Missouri in SEC conference play. LSU got pasted by Mississippi State in the opener and then lost a home game to Troy, so it makes some sense why bettors are still scared off from betting LSU.
If you are looking for reasons to bet on LSU, there are certainly a few: home contrarian favorite, low total of 44.5, Auburn RB Kamryn Pettway doubtful, sharp line movement on LSU +7, etc. Over the summer the lookahead line was LSU -7, so early-season results have flipped that spread on its head. Once again, this game is the most-bet game of the entire Saturday slate with over 6,000 betting tickets already, and 87% of the early action has been on Auburn to cover. There’s definitely contrarian value if they do reach +7.5, and our Premium and Pro members have access to LineWatcher Alerts to be notified as soon as that happens.
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