College Football Week 6 Marketwatch

College Football Week 6 Marketwatch

We’re nearly halfway through the 2017-18 College Football season and below we’ve highlighted some of the major news and notes for Week 6:

  • Road teams have dominated ATS this season, going 192-132 as we head into the games on Friday and Saturday.
  • We’ve seen ridiculous reverse-line movement on LSU this weekend at Florida, but some of that line movement has been to injuries. LSU RB Derrius Guice is expected to play while Florida QB Luke Del Rio is definitely out for the season. The Tigers just lost to Troy at home last week but Florida hasn’t exactly been dominating, so this may be a good bounce back spot on LSU.
  • Another game being played in the state of Florida is FSU vs. Miami, and it’s one of the most bet games of the weekend. It’s also one of the most lopsided, with the public loving Miami on the road to cover. FSU is getting just 19% of tickets, the lowest support ever for a Seminoles squad, but the line moved from +3 to +2.5 on Friday afternoon at some sharp books. I love Miami this year and still think they can win the ACC, but FSU is really intriguing as a buy-low option.
  • Tennessee fans get a break this weekend with the Vols on a bye week– Butch Jones is now -500 to be first SEC head coach fired this season. BetOnline also has posted odds on the next head coach of Tennessee for the 2018-19 season.
Bonus analysis

Michigan State at Michigan

 

Most Bet Games:
Miami FL at Florida State
Washington St at Oregon
LSU at Florida

Most Lopsided Ticket Splits:
90% on Marshall
87% on Auburn
86% on Northern Illinois

It’s been a solid start for public bettors this season– teams closing with at least 70% of tickets have gone 67-50 ATS. We wouldn’t count on these trendy bets to continue covering though.

Biggest Underdogs:
Oregon State +33.5 at USC
Maryland +31 at Ohio State
Iowa St +29.5 at Oklahoma
Cal +28.5 at Washington

Big underdogs are off to a great start this season with teams closing +28 or higher compiling a 56-29 ATS record.

Highest Totals:
Texas Tech at Kansas 79
Memphis at UConn 74.5 (Friday night)

Lowest Totals:
Michigan St at Michigan 40.5
Georgia at Vanderbilt 41

Totals moving 5+ points since opening at CRIS:
Tulsa/Tulane
FIU/MTSU
Miami/FSU
Air Force/Navy
Arkansas/So Carolina
Wash St/Oregon
Cal/Washington
SDSU/UNLV

Premium and Pro members can track all the latest line moves, sharp money, best bets, breaking news and more.

Heisman Trophy race appears to be a 2-man battle now between Saquon Barkley (+125) and Baker Mayfield (+225).

National Championship Odds suggest another rematch between Alabama and Clemson.

Dan McGuire

Dan McGuire is the Operations Manager and soccer specialist at Sports Insights. You can find him on Twitter (@ArsenalDMC) and he can be reached directly at dan.mcguire@actionnetwork.com.

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