Bettors Suck the Value out of Alabama Title Odds

Bettors Suck the Value out of Alabama Title Odds

Up until Saturday’s loss at Auburn, the Alabama Crimson Tide easily had the best odds to both make the 4-Team Playoff and win the National Championship. The Tide were -195 to make the playoff before the season and reached -1000 just a few weeks ago. However, they now have the 4th-best odds to make the playoff behind Clemson, Oklahoma and Auburn:

But bettors have been more focused on Alabama winning the whole thing rather than just busting into the playoff. On Monday afternoon, BetOnline was actually offering Alabama at +1200 odds to win the National Championship, odds that did not last very long. Most savvy bettors jumped on that quickly and drove the odds down to Alabama +600. That still wasn’t enough, and during the week the entire market has had to keep dropping their odds on Bama. The Tide are now down to +360 at BetOnline, +345 at Bookmaker and +325 at 5Dimes, best odds of any team.

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Nov 27
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Oct 24
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Oct 9
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Oct 2
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Sep 25
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Sep 7
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Jan 9
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Alabama CRIMSON TIDE+360+1200-135-120+100+125+140+150+175+200+225+245+265+310+300
Oklahoma SOONERS+400+350+3300+2500+1600+2500+700+700+700+800+1800+1800+1300+1300+800
Clemson TIGERS+400+350+1000+1100+1000+300+350+500+800+1200+2000+3600+3500+3500+2000
Auburn TIGERS+450+300+5000+5000+5000+2000+2500+3300+3300+4000+2800+2000+2300+3200+2500
Ohio St BUCKEYES+700+700+350+600+700+1000+1200+1000+1000+1600+650+800+825+875+800
Georgia BULLDOGS+700+1000+800+1000+1000+1000+1200+1400+2000+2800+4150+3500+5000+5000+3000
Wisconsin BADGERS+1200+1200+2000+1600+2000+2500+3300+3300+3300+3300+4150+4000+4000+5500+4000
Miami FL HURRICANES+1600+1000+4000+2500+3300+3300+5000+5000+5000+5000+6000+8000+8500+8500+3000
TCU HORNED FROGS+5000+12500+3300+1600+2500+3300+3300+3300+6600+5000+8500+11500+11500+11500+6000
USC TROJANS+5000N/A+8000+5000+1200+1600+1600+800+700+700+800+775+825+825+800
Central Florida KNIGHTS+12500+25000+12500+12500N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+175000+999999+500000+500000+100000
Penn St NITTANY LIONSN/AN/A+2000+700+1000+1200+1200+1200+1200+1400+2400+2200+1800+2000+2500
Oklahoma St COWBOYSN/AN/A+2000+1600+1400+1400+1400+2000+1400+2000+3300+4250+4800+5300+2000
Washington HUSKIESN/AN/A+4000+3300+3300+1400+2000+2000+2800+3300+3700+2350+2800+2800+3000
NC State WOLFPACKN/AN/A+5000+5000+5000+5000+10000+8000N/AN/AN/A+22500+20000+20000+10000
Virginia Tech HOKIESN/AN/A+6600+10000+10000+10000+15000+8000+10000+5000+8000+9000+8500+8500+4000
Oregon St BEAVERSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+60000+250000+150000+150000+50000
Iowa St CYCLONESN/AN/A+10000+25000N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+50000+250000+150000+150000+50000
South Florida BULLSN/AN/AN/A+5000+5000+6600+6600+6600+8000+10000+25000+12500+30000+50000+30000
Michigan St SPARTANSN/AN/AN/A+10000+8000+10000+10000+20000+12500+10000+18500+60000+50000+50000+10000
Stanford CARDINALN/AN/AN/A+12500+6600+8000+10000+10000+12500+6600+7500+11000+10000+10000+6000
Michigan WOLVERINESN/AN/AN/A+25000+3300+5000+1600+2000+1400+1200+2000+2700+2500+2500+1200
LSU TIGERSN/AN/AN/A+25000+5000+8000+12500+5000+5000+1600+2400+2000+2200+2200+1200
Washington St COUGARSN/AN/AN/A+25000+25000+5000+2500+6600+8000+8000+11000+16000+12500+12500+6000
Memphis TIGERSN/AN/AN/A+25000N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+85000+250000+200000+200000+100000
Texas LONGHORNSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+10000+8000+10000+15000+10000+10500+5000+4500+4500+2000
San Diego St AZTECSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+12500N/AN/AN/AN/A+250000+180000+150000+200000+100000
Florida GATORSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+12500+5000+6600+5000+8000+7000+4500+4500+5000+4000
UCLA BRUINSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+12500+12500+20000+10000+6600+8500+10300+12500+12500+6000
Tennessee VOLUNTEERSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+12500+12500+12500+12500+8000+8500+10300+10000+10000+4000
Utah UTESN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+25000+12500+12500+15000+15000+27500+35000+30000+30000+10000
Navy MIDSHIPMENN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+50000N/AN/AN/AN/A+100000+250000+200000+200000+100000
Oregon DUCKSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+4000+5000+3300+5000+8500+11500+12500+12500+6000
Texas A&M AGGIESN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+5000+5000+5000+5000+17500+22500+20000+20000+10000
Louisville CARDINALSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+5000+6600+6600+3300+5500+5300+5000+5000+1000
Florida St SEMINOLESN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+10000+12500+3300+3300+3500+975+850+850+800
Kansas St WILDCATSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+12500+15000+15000+6600+9000+12000+7000+7000+3000
West Virginia MOUNTAINEERSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+12500+12500+15000+15000+17500+50000+15000+15000+5000
Minnesota GOLDEN GOPHERSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+20000+8000+8000+12500+25000+60000+50000+50000+10000
Nebraska CORNHUSKERSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+25000+25000+50000+25000+22500+22500+20000+20000+10000
Pittsburgh PANTHERSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+50000+35000+25000+35000+65000+35000+35000+30000
Colorado BUFFALOESN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+25000+12500+10000+20000+35000+25000+25000+6000
Iowa HAWKEYESN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+12500+10000+10000+30000+40000+30000+30000+20000
Boise St BRONCOSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+50000+50000+50000+90000+60000+60000+10000
Ole Miss REBELSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+12500+999999N/AN/A+8000
Arkansas RAZORBACKSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+25000+50000+40000+40000+20000
North Carolina TAR HEELSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+30000+65000+50000+50000+10000
South Carolina GAMECOCKSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+30000+95000+60000+60000+30000
Northwestern WILDCATSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+32500+40000+35000+35000+10000
Mississippi St BULLDOGSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+32500+60000+50000+50000+20000
Georgia Tech YELLOW JACKETSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+40000+70000+60000+60000+10000
California GOLDEN BEARSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+45000+750000+300000+300000+50000
Houston COUGARSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+45000+250000+150000+150000+50000
Missouri TIGERSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+45000+120000+100000+100000+100000
Arizona WILDCATSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+45000+400000+300000+300000+50000
Maryland TERRAPINSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+50000+400000+300000+300000+30000
Vanderbilt COMMODORESN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+50000+150000+150000+150000+50000
BYU COUGARSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+50000+22500+20000+35000+30000
Syracuse ORANGEN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+50000+250000+200000+200000+30000
Arizona St SUN DEVILSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+50000+60000+50000+50000+20000
Wake Forest DEMON DEACONSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+50000+250000+200000+200000+30000
Texas Tech RED RAIDERSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+55000+150000+100000+100000+30000
Duke BLUE DEVILSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+60000+150000+75000+75000+50000
Boston College EAGLESN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+60000+300000+150000+150000+50000
Kentucky WILDCATSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+60000+150000+100000+100000+30000
Notre Dame FIGHTING IRISHN/AN/A+1400+3300+5000+5000+5000+5000+6600+8000+5250+8700+8000+8000+6000
Virginia CAVALIERSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+60000+750000+600000+600000+50000
Baylor BEARSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+65000+60000+35000+35000+30000
Cincinnati BEARCATSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+100000+999999+750000+750000+100000
Purdue BOILERMAKERSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+100000+800000+600000+600000+100000
Southern Miss GOLDEN EAGLESN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+120000+999999+999999+999999N/A
Wyoming COWBOYSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+125000+999999+999999+999999+100000
Troy TROJANSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+125000+999999+999999+999999N/A
UNLV REBELSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+125000+999999+999999+999999+100000
Rutgers SCARLET KNIGHTSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+125000+999999+999999+999999+100000
UTEP MINERSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+150000+999999+999999+999999N/A
Kansas JAYHAWKSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+150000+999999+999999+999999+100000
Illinois FIGHTING ILLININ/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+175000+800000+600000+600000+100000
Western Kentucky HILLTOPPERSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+175000+500000+300000+300000+100000
Tulsa GOLDEN HURRICANEN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+175000+800000+500000+500000+100000
San Jose State SPARTANSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+175000+999999+999999+999999N/A
Western Michigan BRONCOSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+175000+750000+500000+500000N/A
Ohio BOBCATSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+185000+999999+999999+999999N/A
Marshall THUNDERING HERDN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+200000+999999+750000+750000N/A
Utah State AGGIESN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+200000+999999+999999+999999+100000
Rice OWLSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+200000+999999+999999+999999N/A
TOLEDON/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+200000+800000N/AN/AN/A
SMU MUSTANGSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+225000+999999+999999+999999+50000
Army BLACK KNIGHTSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+225000+999999+750000+750000+100000
Indiana HOOSIERSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+250000+150000+100000+100000+30000
Louisiana Tech BULLDOGSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+250000+750000+500000+500000+100000
South Alabama JAGUARSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+300000+999999+999999+999999N/A
Eastern Michigan EAGLESN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+300000+999999+999999+999999N/A
Tulane GREEN WAVEN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+300000+999999+999999+999999+100000
UL Lafayette RAGIN' CAJUNSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+335000+999999+999999+999999N/A
Idaho VANDALSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+999999+999999+999999N/A
East Carolina PIRATESN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+999999+999999+999999+100000
'FIELD'N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+100000
Air Force FALCONSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+999999+999999+999999+100000
Appalachian St MOUNTAINEERSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+999999+750000+750000N/A
Nevada WOLF PACKN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+999999+999999+999999+100000
New Mexico LOBOSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+999999+999999+999999+100000
Texas State BOBCATSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+999999+999999+999999N/A
New Mexico St AGGIESN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+999999+999999+999999N/A
Arkansas St RED WOLVESN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+999999+750000+750000N/A
Middle Tennessee St BLUE RAIDERSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+999999+999999+999999N/A
Florida Atlantic OWLSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+999999+999999+999999N/A
UAB BLAZERSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+999999+999999+999999N/A
North Texas MEAN GREENN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+999999+999999+999999N/A
Hawaii RAINBOWSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+999999+999999+999999N/A
Akron ZIPSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+999999+999999+999999N/A
UL Monroe WARHAWKSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+999999+999999+999999N/A
UMASS MINUTEMENN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+999999+999999+999999N/A
Miami Ohio REDHAWKSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+999999+750000+750000N/A
Northern Illinois HUSKIESN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+999999+999999+999999N/A
Buffalo BULLSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+999999+999999+999999N/A
Kent State GOLDEN FLASHESN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+999999+999999+999999N/A
Temple OWLSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+750000+500000+500000+100000
UTSA ROADRUNNERSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+999999+999999+999999N/A
Central Michigan CHIPPEWASN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+999999+999999+999999N/A
Florida International GOLDEN PANTHERSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+999999+999999+999999N/A
Charlotte 49ERSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+999999+999999+999999N/A
Fresno State BULLDOGSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+999999+999999+999999N/A
Old Dominion MONARCHSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+999999+999999+999999N/A
Bowling Green FALCONSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+999999+999999+999999N/A
Georgia Southern EAGLESN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+999999+999999+999999N/A
Georgia State PANTHERSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+999999+999999+999999N/A
Colorado St RAMSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+300000+250000+250000+100000
Ball St CARDINALSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+999999+999999+999999N/A
UCONN HUSKIESN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+999999+999999+999999N/A

Before the season, sportsbooks around the market took considerable action on Alabama to win the title, including William Hill, CG Technology and BetOnline. A lot of sharp bettors like to bet the Tide, and they should– they’d still be favored against any other team in the nation on a neutral venue. Rather than taking Alabama as an odds-on favorite to make the playoff, bettors are bypassing that option for the better value of winning the title. In response, sportsbooks know that they have a lot of sharp liability on Alabama and have to adjust odds accordingly. While the Tide are surely not a lock to make the playoff, they’d be favorites to win it all once they’re in.

At this point bettors have sucked out nearly all the value available on the Tide. If you still like Alabama to win the title, shop around the market for the best price.

Dan McGuire

Dan McGuire is the Operations Manager and soccer specialist at Sports Insights. You can find him on Twitter (@ArsenalDMC) and he can be reached directly at dan.mcguire@actionnetwork.com.

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