2016 College Football: What Should Bettors Know For Week 12?

In this weekly column, we will summarize key events from the past week, provide bettors with information needed to make smarter college football bets, and help readers determine which teams are offering value.

Quick Hits

  • Prior to last night’s loss, Louisville quarterback Lamar Jackson was -3500 to win the Heisman Trophy. This season, Jackson has more than 4,400 total yards and 47 touchdowns (28 passing and 19 rushing). It will be interesting to see how these odds are adjusted next week, especially in light of the three major upsets last weekend.
  • Three major upsets occurred last week, causing significant changes in the National Title odds. Clemson, Washington, and Michigan suffered crushing losses to conference opponents. What do the National Championship odds look like after last week’s upsets?

Key Injuries

  • Ryan Nall (Foot), is upgraded to probable Saturday (11/19) vs. Arizona
  • Justin Thomas (Upper Body), is upgraded to probable Saturday (11/19) vs. Virginia
  • Perry Hillis (Shoulder), is questionable Saturday (11/19) at Nebraska
  • Eric Dungey (Head), is doubtful Saturday (11/19) vs. Florida State
  • Sean White (Shoulder), is downgraded to doubtful Saturday (11/19) vs. Alabama A&M
  • Tommy Armstrong Jr. (Hamstring), is downgraded to doubtful Saturday (11/19) vs. Maryland
  • Wilton Speight (Collarbone), is expected to miss the next two games.
  • Click here for all NCAAF injuries

Key Line Movement

Washington at Colorado, 3:30 PM Eastern: It’s been a rewarding season for both Colorado fans and bettors backing the Buffaloes. Colorado not only entered Week 12 ranked #10 in the College Football Playoff Rankings, but they’re also boasting the best ATS record (9-1, +7.49 u) this season. Thanks to last week’s plethora of upsets, the Buffaloes have a small chance to sneak into the playoffs, but it won’t be easy. For starters, they would need a win against the red-hot Washington State Cougars, who have won eight straight games since dropping their first two games.

Colorado, who opened as a 3.5-point favorite at the market-setting sportsbook Pinnacle, have since moved to 6.5-point favorites despite receiving just 38% of spread bets at the time of publication.

The graph below illustrates Colorado’s line movement and shifts in public betting trends throughout the week.

colorado-week-12-line-movement

Despite receiving less than half of spread bets, the Buffaloes are getting 53% of spread dollars. In addition, our public betting trends illustrate that Colorado has received the majority of spread money throughout the week, which is likely responsible for this 3-point line movement as oddsmakers pivoted based on this action.

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Andrew Fine

Andrew is a Sports Betting Specialist for Sports Insights. He can be reached at andrew@sportsinsights.com.

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