NFL Week 6 Betting Recap
– Following the Colts 33-28 victory over the Texans, the average margin of victory in the Thursday night game this year has dropped from 28.8 to 24.8.
– Our past research indicates that home teams and favorites have performed particularly well in primetime games which includes Thursday Night, Sunday Night and Monday Night Football.
– Early in the week we published an article dictating whether bettors should take underdogs of +2.5 on the spread, moneyline, or buy to the line up to +3.
– Carson Palmer was named the Cardinals starting quarterback very late in the week which moved the line from -3 to -6 on Sunday morning.
– Bad Beat Alert: Jets +10 — Trailing by seven points with time running down, Geno Smith threw an interception that was returned for a touchdown with just 15 seconds remaining. On the previous play Smith was nearly sacked for a safety but was ruled down at the 1-inch line.
– Bad Beat Alert Part II: The Redskins, who were available anywhere between +3.5 to +6 during the week, lost to the Cardinals on Sunday by a final score of 30-20. With only 18 seconds remaining on the clock and the ‘Skins down by three, Kirk Cousins threw a pick-six to Arizona’s Rashad Johnson to give the Cardinals the late backdoor cover.
– Those two last-minute pick-sixes for the Broncos and Cardinals cost the MGM sportsbook $500K, per VP Jay Rood. According to our public betting trends Denver received 72% of spread bets while Arizona received 66% of public action.
– The 37-37 tie in the Carolina/Cincinnati game was highest score tie in NFL history.
— David Payne Purdum (@DavidPurdum) October 13, 2014
PROS: NYJ +10.5, MIA +3.5/+3, MIN better than -3, BUF +3, WAS +6.5, AZ -2.5 or -3, NYG +3. JOES: Denver, New England, Baltimore, San Diego — Todd Fuhrman (@ToddFuhrman) October 12, 2014
– This week’s Pro bets went 2-5 (assuming you took Mia +3.5) while the Joe bets went 3-1 — in other words it was a nice week for square bettors.
Average number of bets for NFL games (in thousands) Early Sunday: 34.1 Late Sunday: 42.4 Thursdays: 54.1 Mondays: 70.7 Sunday Night: 73.7 — SportsInsights.com (@SportsInsights) October 13, 2014
Most improved Super Bowl odds since the preseason: 1. Chargers +1000 2. Cowboys +1400 3. Broncos +350 4. Bengals +1600 5. Eagles +1800
— SportsInsights.com (@SportsInsights) October 13, 2014
Most bet NFL games: 1. Packers-Dolphins 2. Broncos-Jets 3. Chargers-Raiders
— SportsInsights.com (@SportsInsights) October 12, 2014
– Most popular public teams at our seven contributing sportsbooks:
- San Diego Chargers: 80% at Oakland
- San Francisco 49ers: 79% at St. Louis
- Denver Broncos: 79% at New York Jets
- New England Patriots: 73% at Buffalo
– In Week 6 favorites went 8-7 and are now 45-43 on the season. In Week 6 visitors went 11-4 and are now 46-41 on season. For the year, road favorites are now 13-10.
– In Week 6 the over went 10-5 which moved the season record to 50-41. When the total closes at 48 or less, the over has gone 42-29 this season for +11.06 units.
– The early Super Bowl line has changed with the NFC moving from a 3.5-point favorite just two weeks ago to a 1.5-point favorite today. The total remains unchanged at 51.5. (via Sportsbook.com)
– You can track the latest player updates on our free NFL injury page, but here are some key players to monitor this week:
- Lions WR Calvin Johnson, Ankle, Doubtful
- Eagles RB Darren Sproles, Knee, Doubtful
- Giants WR Victor Cruz, Knee, Out For Year
- Bengals WR A.J. Green, Toe, Doubtful
- Titans QB Jake Locker, Hand, Questionable
- Lions RB Reggie Bush, Ankle, Questionable
- Saints TE Jimmy Graham, Shoulder, Out
- Patriots LB Jerod Mayo, Knee, Out For Year
- Patriots RB Stevan Ridley, Knee, Out For Year
- 49ers LB Patrick Willis, Toe, Questionable
– Notable Week 7 opening lines from Pinnacle
- Cincinnati at Indianapolis (-3)
- Carolina at Green Bay (-7)
- Atlanta at Baltimore (-6.5)
- New Orleans at Detroit (-2.5)
- Houston at Pittsburgh (-4)
Updated NFL MVP Odds: Manning +400 Luck +500 Rivers +500 Rodgers +600 Murray +800 Watt +1500 Wilson +1500 Brady +1500 Brees +2000
— SportsInsights.com (@SportsInsights) October 14, 2014