2017-18 College Football Week 4 Betting Recap
Heading into Week 4 we had been noting the success of underdogs ATS, especially big underdogs. That trend continued into this weekend and there were a few outright wins mixed in as well.
Week 4 Betting Trends:
Dogs 33-26 ATS
Visitors 36-22 ATS
Unders are now 158-122 this season.
Underdogs are now 158-123 ATS this season.
Not a ton of non-conference action this week but the SEC went 0-3 ATS in those games. ACC went 4-2 ATS.
Kent (+44 spread, covered) at Louisville
UNLV (+40 spread, covered) at Ohio St
Wagner (+38 spread, covered) at WMU
Teams closing +21 or higher went 9-3 ATS and are now 74-40 ATS this season.
Teams closing +35 or higher went 3-0 ATS and are now 35-14 ATS this season.
Teams closing +40 or higher went 2-0 ATS and are now 17-5 ATS this season.
Teams closing +45 or higher have gone 8-2 ATS this year and 71-46 ATS since 2007.
Biggest Moneyline Upsets:
Arizona St +481 v Oregon
UVA +447 at Boise
NC State +386 at FSU
More Betting Nuggets:
Teams that are now 4-0 ATS: Duke, SMU, New Mexico State, Utah
There are now nine teams that are 0-4 ATS: BGSU, Missouri, BYU, Charlotte, Oregon St, Temple, Troy, UTEP, WKU
Butch Jones is in serious trouble at Tennessee– he was already the +150 favorite to be 1st SEC coach fired and the Vols (75% of bets) barely escaped with a 17-13 home win over UMass as 28-point favorites. The Minutemen got their first cover of the season (now 1-4 ATS).
Iowa nearly pulled off the upset over Penn State but couldn’t quite hang on:
— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) September 24, 2017
Louisville easily beat Kent 42-3 but didn’t cover for most backers. The Cardinals opened -38, moved to -44, and closed -42.
Kentucky nearly snapped their losing streak against Florida but it extended to 31 games after falling 28-27. Wildcats did cover +3, though. Kentucky last beat Florida in 1986.
NC State is now 11-2 ATS against FSU since 2005 including five outright wins. The Wolfpack upset the Seminoles 27-21 on Saturday as +386 moneyline dogs (+10.5 spread).
Purdue kept it close for a while against Michigan but the Boilermakers failed to cover, losing 28-10. The Boilermakers were a trendy underdog during the week until bettors caught on.
Bettors had given up on Baylor after a terrible start (0-3 ATS) this season and poor last season (3-9 ATS). They closed +28 against Oklahoma but hung in there and covered, losing 49-41. Bears closed with just 11% (!) of tickets.
Kansas football has been bad for quite some time now, but luckily they rewarded most bettors this weekend by covering +24 against WVU (lost 56-34). No one wanted to bet the Jayhawks either, as they closed with just 17% of wagers.
The most lopsided teams in games with high ticket counts all lost ATS: Florida (-3), Oklahoma State (-12), Penn St (-13), and WVU (-24).
Check out our Free Live Odds page for the latest injuries, Week 5 openers, line moves, betting %’s and more.
We’ll also be updating Heisman Trophy odds and National Championship odds during the week.