2017-18 College Football Week 4 Betting Recap

2017-18 College Football Week 4 Betting Recap

Heading into Week 4 we had been noting the success of underdogs ATS, especially big underdogs. That trend continued into this weekend and there were a few outright wins mixed in as well.

Week 4 Betting Trends:
Dogs 33-26 ATS
Visitors 36-22 ATS
Unders 33-26

Unders are now 158-122 this season.

Underdogs are now 158-123 ATS this season.

Not a ton of non-conference action this week but the SEC went 0-3 ATS in those games. ACC went 4-2 ATS.

Biggest underdogs:
Kent (+44 spread, covered) at Louisville
UNLV (+40 spread, covered) at Ohio St
Wagner (+38 spread, covered) at WMU

Teams closing +21 or higher went 9-3 ATS and are now 74-40 ATS this season.
Teams closing +35 or higher went 3-0 ATS and are now 35-14 ATS this season.
Teams closing +40 or higher went 2-0 ATS and are now 17-5 ATS this season.
Teams closing +45 or higher have gone 8-2 ATS this year and 71-46 ATS since 2007.

Biggest Moneyline Upsets:
Arizona St +481 v Oregon
UVA +447 at Boise
NC State +386 at FSU

More Betting Nuggets:

Teams that are now 4-0 ATS: Duke, SMU, New Mexico State, Utah
There are now nine teams that are 0-4 ATS: BGSU, Missouri, BYU, Charlotte, Oregon St, Temple, Troy, UTEP, WKU

Butch Jones is in serious trouble at Tennessee– he was already the +150 favorite to be 1st SEC coach fired and the Vols (75% of bets) barely escaped with a 17-13 home win over UMass as 28-point favorites. The Minutemen got their first cover of the season (now 1-4 ATS).

Iowa nearly pulled off the upset over Penn State but couldn’t quite hang on:

Louisville easily beat Kent 42-3 but didn’t cover for most backers. The Cardinals opened -38, moved to -44, and closed -42.

Kentucky nearly snapped their losing streak against Florida but it extended to 31 games after falling 28-27. Wildcats did cover +3, though. Kentucky last beat Florida in 1986.

NC State is now 11-2 ATS against FSU since 2005 including five outright wins. The Wolfpack upset the Seminoles 27-21 on Saturday as +386 moneyline dogs (+10.5 spread).

Purdue kept it close for a while against Michigan but the Boilermakers failed to cover, losing 28-10. The Boilermakers were a trendy underdog during the week until bettors caught on.

Bettors had given up on Baylor after a terrible start (0-3 ATS) this season and poor last season (3-9 ATS). They closed +28 against Oklahoma but hung in there and covered, losing 49-41. Bears closed with just 11% (!) of tickets.

Kansas football has been bad for quite some time now, but luckily they rewarded most bettors this weekend by covering +24 against WVU (lost 56-34). No one wanted to bet the Jayhawks either, as they closed with just 17% of wagers.

The most lopsided teams in games with high ticket counts all lost ATS: Florida (-3), Oklahoma State (-12), Penn St (-13), and WVU (-24).

Check out our Free Live Odds page for the latest injuries, Week 5 openers, line moves, betting %’s and more.

We’ll also be updating Heisman Trophy odds and National Championship odds during the week.

Dan McGuire

Dan McGuire is the Operations Manager and soccer specialist at Sports Insights. You can find him on Twitter (@ArsenalDMC) and he can be reached directly at dan.mcguire@actionnetwork.com.

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