2016 Presidential Election Betting: Get Ready For Madam President

Rejoice, America. The most polarizing and contentious presidential race in modern history is finally coming to an end.

Tomorrow – November 8, 2016 – tens of millions of Americans will be heading to the polls to elect the next leader of the free world.

At Sports Insights, we’ve been tracking the presidential odds for nearly three years. From the very beginning, our goal has been to cut through the noise, eliminate subjectivity and examine the 2016 election from a purely betting standpoint, tracking the odds movement over time to see which candidate is the smartest bet to win the presidency.

Back in January of 2013, when we first started monitoring the presidential odds, Hillary Clinton opened as a +225 favorite to win the White House. Meanwhile, Trump opened as a massive 200/1 longshot.

Then, in the summer of 2015, everything changed.

Trump announced his candidacy for president and immediately rose to prominence amid an unprecedented wave of anti-government populism.

In July of 2015, Trump opened at +2500 to win his party’s nomination and stood at +4000 to win the presidency. Six months later, Trump successfully defied the odds, dispatching nearly two-dozen competitors to become the Republican nominee. By May of 2016, Trump had catapulted to +220 to win the White House.

However, during the final stretch, both candidates would experience a series of ups and downs.

In August, thanks to a plethora of unforced errors by Trump, Clinton’s odds moved from -330 to -590.

Then, in early September, Trump struck back. He fired his campaign manager, gave up the back-and-forth feuds that kept dragging him down and smartly shifted his attention to the issues and the voters. His 2016 odds quickly improved from +365 to +270.

Unfortunately for Trump, the honeymoon was short-lived. He did poorly in the October debates and then his campaign nearly imploded when a leaked video showed Trump bragging about assaulting women. As a result, Clinton ballooned to -740, her high-water mark of the campaign. Pundits were writing Trump’s political obituary. He had dropped to +530 and looked down and out.

Then, out of nowhere, FBI Director James Comey dropped an October bombshell. He wrote a letter to Congress saying the investigation into Clinton’s emails had been re-opened. The books immediately dropped Clinton’s odds. Just like that, Trump was back in the game.

Just a few days later, Comey sent another letter to Congress reversing his previous decision. He cleared Clinton of wrongdoing and her odds immediately rose back up to -475, with Trump falling to +365.

As it stands now, less than 24 hours from Election Day, Clinton is a -595 favorite, with Trump +445.

At Sports Insights, we always stress the importance of opening up multiple accounts at different sportsbooks so you can shop for the best line. Here is a breakdown of the odds at several books across the marketplace.

  Bookmaker 5Dimes Bovada BetOnline Heritage
Clinton -592 -580 -550 -500 -590
Trump +441 +425 +375 +350 +435

The latest projections from Nate Silver and the 538 team give Clinton a 69.2% chance of winning tomorrow, thanks to a flurry of late polls showing her ahead in many key battleground states. In order to win the presidency, a candidate must win 270 Electoral College votes. Silver is projecting Clinton to win 297.

The Upshot (run by the New York Times), is giving Trump just a 16% chance to pull off the upset tomorrow.

It’s important to note that betting on the president isn’t the only option available to bettors. You can also bet on Senate races, Governor races, which party wins each state, and other prop bets including which party will win control of the House and the Senate.

The following Senate race odds come from Bookmaker.

senate

Here are some Gubernatorial Race odds (Governor) available at 5Dimes.

5dimesgov

WHAT DO YOU THINK?

Are the oddsmakers correct? Is Clinton a shoo-in tomorrow? Or is Trump primed to pull off the upset?

More closely, have you found our 2016 election coverage to be useful and informative?

Regardless of who you support, we hope you head to the polls tomorrow to exercise your constitutional right.

Please feel free to leave your thoughts in the comments section below.

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Josh Appelbaum

Josh Appelbaum is the Customer Service Manager, Affiliate Manager and Political Expert for Sports Insights. He can be reached at joshua@sportsinsights.com.

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