2016 College Football: What Should Bettors Know For Week 9?

In this weekly column, we will summarize key events from the past week, provide bettors with information needed to make smarter college football bets, and help readers determine which teams are offering value.

Quick Hits

In Week 8, underdogs went 31-24 ATS for +5 units in NCAAF Week 8 and are now 97-64 ATS in the last 3 weeks.

Our Week 9 opening line report is a useful resource to see how lines have shifted throughout the week. (Week 9 Opening Line Report)

What are the Week 9 line moves that matter? Here are three games that bettors should know about. (Week 9 Line Moves That Matter)

Last week, Deshaun Watson had the second-best odds to win the Heisman. Despite throwing for almost 400 yards against ACC rival NC State, his odds dropped from +500 to +1000. Meanwhile, Baker Mayfield (60:1) continues his ascent back into the Heisman picture after being dropped from consideration this past month. (2016 Heisman Odds)

LSU (33:1) has made significant movements in the NCAAF Championship picture, after sitting at 200:1 just three weeks ago. The Tigers, however, are not this week’s biggest riser. (2016-17 National Championship Odds)

Find out why there’s value taking TCU (-9.5) as a contrarian favorite. (Game of the Week: TCU vs. Texas Tech)

In Episode 12 of our Smarter Bets Podcast, Dan and David talk about NCAAF contrarian favorites and Heisman odds. (Episode 12 of Smarter Bets)

Key Injuries

Wayne Gallman (Concussion), is upgraded to probable Saturday (10/29) at Florida State

Matt Dayes (Concussion), is upgraded to probable Saturday (10/29) vs. Boston College

Wes Lunt (Back), is questionable Saturday (10/29) vs. Minnesota

Manny Wilkins (Arm), is downgraded to doubtful Saturday (10/29) at Oregon

Josh Rosen (Shoulder), is out indefinitely

Click here for all NCAAF injuries

Key Line Movement

Stanford at Arizona, 11:00 PM Eastern: There are many compelling Week 9 matchups that feature division rivalries. One in particular that bettors should examine is the Cardinal-Wildcats game. Star running back Christian McCaffrey and Stanford head to Arizona Stadium for what should be competitive game between two Pac-12 rivals. Stanford opened as a 7-point favorite at the market-setting sportsbook Pinnacle and currently is receiving 69% of spread bets.

The graph below illustrates Arizona’s line movement and shifts in public betting trends throughout the week.

arizona-wildcats-sharp
That line has fallen a bit since opening and McCaffrey’s team is only a 5.5-point favorite this evening though they are receiving more than half of spread bets. This reverse line movement signals that sharp money likes the Wildcats, who currently are receiving 58% of spread dollars as well as over half of spread money throughout the week. In addition, the line chart reveals that there was a bet signal triggered at Arizona +7, which has caused that line to plummet to where it is now.

Sportsbook Insider Pro subscribers have access to real-time odds, public betting trends, money percentages, bet signals (including steam moves and reverse line movement alerts), injury alerts, value meter, line watcher, line predictor, and many other unique features. We also have six pending NCAAF Best Bets which are only available with an active Pro subscription.

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Andrew Fine

Andrew is a Sports Betting Specialist for Sports Insights. He can be reached at andrew@sportsinsights.com.

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