2016 March Madness: Which Final Four Teams Are Being Underrated by Oddsmakers?

Last week in this space we utilized our bracket simulator predictions to determine which schools were offering value in the futures market. By converting each school’s championship futures into an implied probability, we were able to find four schools with a positive expected value: Villanova (+1250), Virginia (+575), Gonzaga (+2200) and Iowa State (+2800). Although all four…

2016 March Madness: Final Four Opening Line Report

This year’s Final Four consists of #2-Villanova vs. #2-Oklahoma and #10-Syracuse vs. #1-North Carolina. Syracuse is by far the biggest surprise, as they were 30:1 to win their region prior to the tournament and pulled off the second-largest upset (+374 moneyline) in the Elite 8 that we’ve tracked. They even reached +1600 on the live moneyline against…

2016 March Madness: Elite 8 Preview

With all the talk about parity this season in college basketball, the remaining eight teams consist of four #1 seeds, two #2 seeds, a #6 seed and #10 seed. This can be regarded as somewhat “chalky” since most of the top teams are still alive, and even the #6 and #10 seeds come from the ACC,…

2016 March Madness: Sweet 16 Line Moves That Matter

Throughout the past NFL season, our weekly Line Moves That Matter articles would highlight the most interesting line moves at the market-setting offshore sportsbooks — typically CRIS and Pinnacle which take the highest limits and therefore attract the sharpest bettors. By contrasting the opening and current lines with the public betting trends from our seven contributing…

2016 March Madness: Are Elite Defenses Undervalued by Oddsmakers?

A successful contrarian bettor typically questions conventional wisdom, and challenges widely-held beliefs. Sportsbooks are excellent at predicting where they’re going to get action each week, and they shade their lines accordingly. These shaded lines create additional value for bettors who dare to go against the grain and take an unpopular viewpoint. Squares — or casual…