NFL Week 9 Betting Recap

– Tom Brady and Peyton Manning are the most profitable ‘Over’ QBs since ’03, and their game easily went over the closing total of 52.5.

– On the flip side, Michael Vick and Alex Smith are the worst ‘Over’ QBs in our database. The Jets/Chiefs game went under 41.5 despite 72% of bettors taking the over.

– Each week former Caesars oddsmaker Todd Fuhrman tweets out the teams being pounded by sharp money and the teams being hammered by the less-informed public. This week he tweeted an early morning report and then updated the betting public with details of late action. Early Record: Pros 3-1 ATS, Joes 1-2 ATS

– Favorites went 6-6 ATS in Week 9 and are now 66-64 overall. Visitors went 7-5 ATS in Week 9 and are now 65-63 overall. The over went 7-5 in Week 9 and is now 71-62 overall.

– Best ATS Win % among Quarterbacks (min 32 starts) since 2003

    1. Russell Wilson 65.9%
    2. Andrew Luck 65.1%
    3. Colin Kaepernick 61.8%
    4. Aaron Rodgers 60.4%
    5. Tom Brady 58.1% (only QB to cover this week)
    6. Peyton Manning 57.5%
    7. Andy Dalton 56.6%

– Best ATS Quarterbacks this season:

  1. Andrew Luck 7-2
  2. Alex Smith 6-2
  3. Carson Palmer/Teddy Bridgewater 4-1

– Worst ATS Quarterbacks this season:

  1. Geno Smith 1-6
  2. Kirk Cousins 1-4
  3. Josh McCown/Chad Henne 0-3

– Dallas hadn’t received less than 25% of spread bets since November of 2006, however, the Cowboys closed with just 24% of spread bets.

– The Cowboys opened as 4-point favorites when Tony Romo (Back) was expected to start, however, when it was announced Romo was our and Brandon Weeden would start the game moved to a pick ‘em. Romo currently listed as question for Sunday’s (11/9) game against Jacksonville.

– Other key injuries to monitor include

  1. Eagles QB Nick Foles, Collarbone, Will miss 6-8 weeks
  2. Packers QB Aaron Rodgers, Hamstring, Probable
  3. Jets QB Michael Vick, Foot, Questionable
  4. Browns TE Jordan Cameron, Concussion, Doubtful
  5. Broncos WR Wes Welker, Back, Doubtful
  6. Bills RB Fred Jackson, Groin, Doubtful
  7. Lions WR Calvin Johnson, Ankle, Probable
  8. Lions RB Reggie Bush, Ankle, Probable
  9. Bengals RB Giovani Bernard, Hip, Doubtful
  10. Eagles LB DeMeco Ryans, Achilles, Out For Year

– For the latest news and injury updates, make sure to visit our free NFL injury page.

– NFL West Coast teams playing day games on the East Coast are now just 57-73 ATS since 2003 after San Diego got crushed in Miami. Find out more here.

– MVP odds movement since last week at Sportsbook.com:

  1. Peyton Manning +130 to +220
  2. Tom Brady +1200 to +400
  3. Aaron Rodgers +500 (unchanged)
  4. Andrew Luck +1000 to +700
  5. Ben Roethlisberger +5000 to +800
  6. DeMarco Murray +600 to +1000
  7. Russell Wilson +2500 (unchanged)
  8. Drew Brees +5000 to +2500
  9. Philip Rivers +1500 to +5000
  10. Antonio Brown N/A to +5000

– Early Week 10 Lines of Interest (via Pinnacle)

  1. Mark Sanchez and the Philadelphia Eagles opened as 6.5-point favorites for their MNF matchup against the Carolina Panthers.
  2. The Denver Broncos opened as 11-point road dogs against the Oakland Raiders.
  3. The Cowboys/Jaguars and Giants/Seahawks games are both currently off the board.

– You can view the latest odds and public betting trends on our free NFL odds page,

– This season our NFL Best Bets have gone 24-19 ATS (+3.06 units) while our College Football Best Bets have gone 52-37 ATS (+10.21 units). Receive these plays along with real-time odds from 40+ sportsbooks, public betting trends from 7 contributing sportsbooks and much more by signing up for a 4-day trial of Sportsbook Insider Pro.

– Have any questions for the staff at Sports Insights? Utilize our live chat to speak with a customer service representative or e-mail us at help@sportsinsights.com.

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David Solar

David Solar has been the Content Manager at Sports Insights for over four years. He specializes in sports betting analytics and has created several popular data-driven betting systems. He can be reached directly at david@sportsinsights.com or on twitter at @TheDavidSolar.

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