NFL Week 4 Betting Recap
– Favorites went 7-6 ATS in Week 4 but are still just 27-32 ATS for the season. Home teams went 8-4 ATS in Week 4 but are also below .500 this season with a 28-30 ATS record. Teams coming off a loss in the Week 3 were just 6-7 ATS this week but have gone 24-20 ATS on the season.
– Underdogs went 6-7 straight up this week, and betting every dog on the moneyline would have resulted in a gain of +3.22 units won. On the year, betting every underdog in the moneyline has resulted in a net gain of 5.35 units won.
– In Week 4 the Over went 10-3 (+6.46 units) bringing the record to 33-28 (+3.6 units) on the season.
– For early Super Bowl betting, the NFC is currently a 3-point favorite against the AFC with a total of 51.5. On the moneyline the NFC is listed at -145 | AFC +130.
– The Oakland Raiders have fired head coach Dennis Allen after the team’s 0-4 start. Before the season Allen has the third best odds (+600) of being the first coach to be fired.
– Heading into the week, these were the likeliest Super Bowl matchups at Sportsbook.com:
- SEA-DEN +550
- SEA-NE +800
- SEA-CIN +1300
- NO-DEN +1900
- GB-DEN +2000
- SEA-SD +2000
- SF-DEN +2300
– The most bet NFL games this weekend all consisted of NFC teams:
– Key injuries to monitor for Week 5:
- Bears WR Brandon Marshall, Ankle, Probable
- 49ers TE Vernon Davis, Back, Questionable
- Titans QB Jake Locker, Wrist, Questionable
- Vikings QB Teddy Bridgewater, Ankle, Probable
- Texans WR Andre Johnson, Ankle, Probable
- Cardinals QB Carson Palmer, Shoulder, Probable
- Packers LB Clay Matthews, Hamstring, Questionable
- Colts S LaRon Landry, Suspension, Out
- Panthers RB DeAngelo Williams, Ankle, Doubtful
- Bucs WR Mike Evans, Groin, Out
- Raiders QB Derek Carr, Knee, Out
– It was an up-and-down week for back-up quarterbacks with Minnesota and Teddy Bridgewater (+3.5 vs. Atlanta) winning 41-28 and Tampa Bay and Mike Glennon (+7.5, at Pittsburgh) winning 27-24. However, Jacksonville and Blake Bortles (+13 at San Diego) lost 33-14 and Charlie Whitehurst and Tennessee (+7.5 at Indy) lost 41-17.
– Speaking of back-ups, there’s a new quarterback in Buffalo with Kyle Orton replacing E.J. Manuel behind center this week. The Bills are currently receiving 25% of spread bets as 7-point underdogs in Detroit.
– Looking ahead to Week 5, the Browns/Titans game is currently off the board as it is unknown weather Jake Locker (Wrist) or his back-up Charlie Whitehurst will get the start.
– Before the season CG Technologies released lines for every single NFL game between Week 1 and 16. The list below compares these pre-season predictions followed by the current consensus line:
- Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-10/-9)
- Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions (-7.5/-7)
- Houston Texans at Dallas Cowboys (-4.5/-4)
- Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers (-3.5/-3)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5/-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars
- Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts (-3/-3.5)
- Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans (-2.5/Off Board)
- St. Louis Rams at Philadelphia Eagles (-6/-7)
- Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants (-2.5/-4)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-7.5/-10.5)
- Arizona Cardinals at Denver Broncos (-9/-7)
- Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco (-7/-6)
- New York Jets at San Diego Chargers (-4/-6.5)
- Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots (-4/pick ’em)
- Seattle Seahawks (-4.5/-7) at Washington Redskins
– As you can see, the biggest moves include CIN/NE (4 points), TB/NO (3 points), SEA/WAS (2.5 points) and NYJ/SD (2.5 points).
– Week 5 Byes: Miami Dolphins and Oakland Raiders
– There was only one O/U in the NFL this week where the public majority was on the Under (NE-KC), but that total has increased from 45 to 46.5. The bettors following that reverse line movement covered easily as the teams combined for 55 points (41-14 Chiefs).
– Via Todd Fuhrman: PROS: Packers, Bills, Titans, Jets, Bucs, Jaguars JOES: Colts, Lions, Steelers, Chargers, Falcons.
– The Buccaneers scored a touchdown with 7 seconds left to take a 27-24 lead over the Steelers. Tampa Bay was listed at +554 to come back and win for live, in-game betting prior before the drive.
Patriots fall from 8/1 to 14/1 to win the Super Bowl @LVSuperBook. Seahawks 7/2 Broncos 9/2 Bengals 8/1 Packers 12/1 Chiefs 50/1
— David Payne Purdum (@DavidPurdum) September 30, 2014
– NFL teams whose Super Bowl futures dropped the most since last week:
- New Orleans +1600 to +2200
- Chicago +2500 to +4000
- Pittsburgh +4000 to +5500
– Looking ahead to Week 5, in early action the most lopsided bet games are:
- Houston (+4 at Dallas) receiving 20% of spread bets
- Jacksonville (+7 vs. Pittsburgh) receiving 20% of spread bets
- New England (pick ’em vs. Cincinnati) receiving 25% of spread bets
- Buffalo (+7 at Detroit) receiving 25% of spread bets
- St. Louis (+7 at Philadelphia) receiving 27% of spread bets
– Before the year we published an article detailing how sharp bettors could effectively buy low on teams that made the playoffs in the previous season. This system has gone 1-0 in 2014 and is 62-31 (+27.72 units) overall and has one game match for Week 5.
NFL Teams whose Super Bowl futures improved the most since last week: GB +2200 to +1500 DAL +5000 to +3500 SD +1600 to +1400
— SportsInsights.com (@SportsInsights) September 29, 2014
There was not a single NFL dog that lost and covered today. Either the favorite covered or the dog won straight up. — SportsInsights.com (@SportsInsights) September 29, 2014
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