Welcome to the 2012 edition of MLB Marketwatch, where the team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the MLB betting market.
Every week we analyze the sports betting marketplace to pinpoint which games the public is chasing and which the sharps are pounding.
Overall Record: 6-4 (+4.07 units)
The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true line value. Often, if a line looks too good to be true, there is a reason. You’ll occasionally need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.
Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies
This evening, the struggling Colorado Rockies (25-42, 10-21 Away) will head east to Philadelphia where they will face the last-place Phillies (33-37, 14-19 Home) in the final game of a three-game set. The Rockies will hand the ball to Jeff Francis, who has been roughed up in his only two starts this season (0-1, 12.46 ERA). Taking the mound for the Phillies will be 24-year old right-hander Vance Worley. With Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels headlining Philadelphia’s rotation, the former Long Beach State product is often overlooked. However, Worley continues to impress and currently sports a 3-3 record with an impressive 2.80 ERA in 61 innings.
Coming into this season, expectations were sky high for the Phillies. Even with two All-Stars beginning the season on the disabled list (2B Chase Utley and 1B Ryan Howard), the Phillies were the heavy favorite to win the World Series with 11/2 odds at Bovada. Unfortunately injuries to Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay have left the team heavily undermanned, while the rest of the teams in their division have outperformed pre-season postulations. Although many of their stars are nearing a return to the lineup, it is still unknown whether Philly will be a buyer or seller at the trade deadline and their future odds have dropped significantly — now sitting at 18/1.
As for the Rockies, their home and away splits have once again defined their season. Colorado’s offense has been tremendous in the thin Rocky Mountain air with a league-leading .289 batting average and 56 home runs, however those numbers drop noticeably outside of Coors Field where they have a piddling team batting average of .232 and just 29 dingers. However, Colorado pitchers definitely benefit from road starts as their team ERA is more than a full run lower on the road than it is at home (4.75 vs. 5.91).
Philadelphia opened as a -172 favorite at Pinnacle and, according to Sports Insights’ MLB Betting Trends, has received 82% of moneyline bets, 77% of parlay wagers, and 81% of runline wagers. Despite this heavily one-sided betting, the line remains unchanged and currently sits at -172.
The public betting chart below is available on our Live Odds 3.0 page to all Live Odds and All-Pro Combo members and shows a breakdown of moneyline Betting Percentages from our six contributing sportsbooks.
According to BetLabs, since 2005 teams receiving less than 20% of moneyline wagers have gone 843-1218 for +80.58 units and a 3.9% return on investment (ROI) during the regular season. When we filter that down even farther and look specifically at road teams, the units earned drops but the ROI nearly doubles. In just under 1,000 games, that system has gone 377-606 with 62.20 units won and a 6.3% ROI, indicating that their is excellent value on this game.
The line history graph below, which is available to all Live Odds and All-Pro Combo members, shows how the public Betting Percentages have affected line movement for this game at Pinnacle.
At the time of publication, Sports Interaction (SIA) is offering the best price on the Rockies at +170, but as always, be sure to shop for the best line before getting down on this game.
Game to Watch (6-4, +4.07 units)
Colorado Rockies +170 (SIA)
Enjoy the games!