Welcome to the 2012 edition of MLB Marketwatch, where the team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the MLB betting market.
Every week we analyze the sports betting marketplace to pinpoint which games the public is chasing and which the sharps are pounding.
Overall Record: 5-4 (+2.67 units)
The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true line value. Often, if a line looks too good to be true, there is a reason. You’ll occasionally need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.
Colorado Rockies vs. Detroit Tigers
On Friday evening, the Colorado Rockies (24-38, 9-17 Away) will travel to Detroit to face the Tigers (30-33, 13-16 Home) in the first game of a three-game series. The Rox will send Jeff Francis to the mound, who struggled in his lone start this season (June 9th) surrendering eight earned runs over just 3.1 innings against the Angels. He will face off against rookie Casey Crosby who has very limited experience in the big leagues. The 6’5″ southpaw has gone 1-1 with a 9.35 ERA and 1.85 WHIP in his two starts since being called up from the minors.
Both teams feature potent offenses — although it will be interesting to see how the Rockies fair outside the hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field. Colorado leads the National League in runs scored with 316, including a league best 79 round-trippers, despite the prolonged absense of All-Star shortstop Troy Tulowitzki. Fortunately, OF Carlos Gonzalez has stepped up with a career year for the Rockies and leads the team in batting average (.322), home runs (16), runs batted in (48), runs (49) and stolen bases (9).
Detroit’s offensive output has been less impressive despite the off-season acquisition of Prince Fielder. The hefty first baseman has carried his weight this season — metaphorically speaking of course — with a .314 average and 10 home runs. Alas, the Tigers rank just seventh in the American League with 279 runs scored after entering the season with high expectations.
Detroit opened as a -150 favorite at Pinnacle and, according to Sports Insights’ MLB Betting Trends, has received 82% of moneyline bets, 78% of parlay wagers, and 79% of runline wagers. Even with this one-sided betting, Pinnacle has moved their line just five points from -150 to -145.
The public betting chart below is available on our Live Odds 3.0 page to all Live Odds and All-Pro Combo members and shows a breakdown of moneyline Betting Percentages from our six contributing sportsbooks.
A Steam Move was triggered on the Rockies at BetOnline (26-22, +4.61 units) at 9:28 AM eastern time this morning, indicating that sharp money has already come down on the road underdog.
The line history graph below, which is available to all Live Odds and All-Pro Combo members, shows how the public Betting Percentages have affected line movement for this game at Pinnacle.
At the time of publication, BetFair is offering the best price on the Rockies at +140, but as always, be sure to shop for the best line before getting down on this game.
Game to Watch (5-4, +2.67 units)
Colorado Rockies +140 (BetFair)
Enjoy the games!