NFL Betting and Shopping for the Best Line
With the 2013-14 NFL and NCAA Football seasons right around the corner, it’s important to revisit the concept of shopping for the best line as a way to maximize value and increase your bankroll.
The table below shows odds and betting trends data for a previous Week 1 NFL matchup between the New England Patriots and Miami Dolphins.
|Team||# Bets||Spread %||SIA
|New England Patriots||4412||89%||-6||-5.5||-5|
In this game, the market-setting sportsbooks, like CRIS, Pinnacle and 5Dimes, have New England as a 5.5-point favorite. This line is right in the middle of what the rest of the sports marketplace is offering.
Sports Interaction (SIA), which is known as a “public book,” or a sportsbook that shades its lines towards favorites, has moved with the public betting percentages to a full 6 points.
Conversely, Carib is holding strong at -5, which is the best line on the board for those interested in taking the Patriots.
As you can see from this example, whether you like New England or Miami, shopping for the best line is worth one-point of value, as long as you’re willing to take a few minutes to scan the marketplace.
More importantly, that extra point moves into the key number of “6”, which is not only critical to grab if you want to make a contrarian play on the Dolphins, but it is just as significant to get off of “6” if you’re instead considering the Patriots.
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