NFL Betting and Shopping for the Best Line

NFL Betting and Shopping for the Best Line

With the 2013-14 NFL and NCAA Football seasons right around the corner, it’s important to revisit the concept of shopping for the best line as a way to maximize value and increase your bankroll.

The table below shows odds and betting trends data for a previous Week 1 NFL matchup between the New England Patriots and Miami Dolphins.

Team # Bets Spread % SIA
CRIS Carib
New England Patriots 4412 89% -6 -5.5 -5
Miami Dolphins 11% +6 +5.5 +5

In this game, the market-setting sportsbooks, like CRIS, Pinnacle and 5Dimes, have New England as a 5.5-point favorite. This line is right in the middle of what the rest of the sports marketplace is offering.

Sports Interaction (SIA), which is known as a “public book,” or a sportsbook that shades its lines towards favorites, has moved with the public betting percentages to a full 6 points.

Conversely, Carib is holding strong at -5, which is the best line on the board for those interested in taking the Patriots.

As you can see from this example, whether you like New England or Miami, shopping for the best line is worth one-point of value, as long as you’re willing to take a few minutes to scan the marketplace.

More importantly, that extra point moves into the key number of “6”, which is not only critical to grab if you want to make a contrarian play on the Dolphins, but it is just as significant to get off of “6” if you’re instead considering the Patriots.

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1 Comment
  • will
    August 13, 2011 at 8:08 pm

    make sure you do not lay juice as well (sell points if you have to as it is not worth paying for points), laying juice you are putting pressure on your money and have to have a higher winning percentage to make money, and don’t let anyone fool you about football, the key number is 4!!! 3 is a silent pick em so money line the game with a dog of 3 pts or less, 85% of teams that cover 3 points as dogs win the game outright so why give the books any more than you have to, make sure you take dogs in first half ONLY, i cant stress this enough, more times than not if a dog will cover the game, (big dogs +7 or higher) they will show up early and you do not want to get screwed in the 2nd half by blowing the cover, these are things the sports books never would tell you but surely will save you a lot of aggravation in the LONG RUN

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