NFL Week 3 Line Comparisons

During the past off-season CG Technology (previously known as Cantor Gaming) posted lines for almost every NFL game for the 2014 regular season with the exception of Week 17 (where many starters rest and lines can be difficult to predict). Using these spreads, we were able to uncover which teams were offering the most value for win total bets.

Westgate Hotel (formerly LVH) then released lines for every Week 3 game early on Wednesday (9/10) morning when all Week 1 games were in the books. We thought it would be interesting to compare these early Week 3 lines to the pre-season spreads from CG Technology and how accurate they were to the actual Week 3 opening odds.

Matchup WestGate Actual Opening Line on 9/15 WestGate Look-Ahead Line on 9/10 CG Technology Pre-Season Line on 5/22
TB at ATL ATL -5.5 ATL -5.5 ATL -5.5
BAL at CLE Pick 'Em Pick 'Em Pick 'Em
GB at DET Pick 'Em GB -1 GB -1
TEN at CIN CIN -7 CIN -6.5 CIN -7
SD at BUF SD -1 SD -2.5 BUF -1
DEN at SEA SEA -4.5 SEA -4.5 SEA -3.5
PIT at CAR CAR -3 CAR -3 CAR -3.5
IND at JAX IND -6.5 IND -6.5 IND -6
OAK at NE NE -14 NE -12 NE -13
MIN at NO NO -9.5 NO -8.5 NO -10
HOU at NYG HOU -2.5 NYG -3 NYG -4
WAS at PHI PHI -6.5 PHI -7 PHI -4.5
DAL at STL Pick 'Em DAL -1 Pick 'Em
SF at ARZ SF -3 SF -1.5 SF -2.5
KC at MIA MIA -5.5 MIA -6.5 Pick 'Em
CHI at NYJ Pick 'Em NYJ -1.5 Pick 'Em

On the whole, the lines from 4 months ago turned out to be pretty accurate but there were some games with large discrepancies. The Chiefs/Dolphins game which was originally listed as a pick ’em but after Miami’s impressive win against New England, the Fins saw their stock rise considerably and were -6.5 on the look-ahead line and are now -4.5. The Texans have once again started the year 2-0 after going 2-14 last season and are now favored over the struggling Giants.

It’s also interesting to see the Seahawks listed as a 4.5-point home favorite for their Super Bowl rematch with the Broncos. You may recall that Denver received 68% of spread bets as a 1.5-point favorite but were blown out by a final score of 43-8.

Bettors can view real-time odds, public betting trends, breaking injury news and more at our new free NFL odds page.

Which Week 3 lines do you think are offering value? Are you surprised the Rams only moved 1-point given Sam Bradford’s season ending injury? Who will win the Super Bowl rematch? Feel free to leave any thoughts, comments or questions in the section below.

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David Solar

David Solar has been the Content Manager at Sports Insights for over four years. He specializes in sports betting analytics and has created several popular data-driven betting systems. He can be reached directly at david@sportsinsights.com or on twitter at @TheDavidSolar.

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3 comments on “NFL Week 3 Line Comparisons
    • The biggest difference is that Miami is on the road this week against Buffalo, but they’re playing at home Week 3 against Kansas City. Clearly oddsmakers have also soured on the Chiefs since they’re +13.5 this week against Denver and were only +7 when CG released their lines over the offseason.

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