NFL Week 3 Line Comparisons

NFL Week 3 Line Comparisons

During the past off-season CG Technology (previously known as Cantor Gaming) posted lines for almost every NFL game for the 2014 regular season with the exception of Week 17 (where many starters rest and lines can be difficult to predict). Using these spreads, we were able to uncover which teams were offering the most value for win total bets.

Westgate Hotel (formerly LVH) then released lines for every Week 3 game early on Wednesday (9/10) morning when all Week 1 games were in the books. We thought it would be interesting to compare these early Week 3 lines to the pre-season spreads from CG Technology and how accurate they were to the actual Week 3 opening odds.

MatchupWestGate Actual Opening Line on 9/15WestGate Look-Ahead Line on 9/10CG Technology Pre-Season Line on 5/22
TB at ATLATL -5.5ATL -5.5ATL -5.5
BAL at CLEPick 'EmPick 'EmPick 'Em
GB at DETPick 'EmGB -1GB -1
TEN at CINCIN -7CIN -6.5CIN -7
SD at BUFSD -1SD -2.5BUF -1
DEN at SEASEA -4.5SEA -4.5SEA -3.5
PIT at CARCAR -3CAR -3CAR -3.5
IND at JAXIND -6.5IND -6.5IND -6
OAK at NENE -14NE -12NE -13
MIN at NONO -9.5NO -8.5NO -10
HOU at NYGHOU -2.5NYG -3NYG -4
WAS at PHIPHI -6.5PHI -7PHI -4.5
DAL at STLPick 'EmDAL -1Pick 'Em
SF at ARZSF -3SF -1.5SF -2.5
KC at MIAMIA -5.5MIA -6.5Pick 'Em
CHI at NYJPick 'EmNYJ -1.5Pick 'Em

On the whole, the lines from 4 months ago turned out to be pretty accurate but there were some games with large discrepancies. The Chiefs/Dolphins game which was originally listed as a pick ’em but after Miami’s impressive win against New England, the Fins saw their stock rise considerably and were -6.5 on the look-ahead line and are now -4.5. The Texans have once again started the year 2-0 after going 2-14 last season and are now favored over the struggling Giants.

It’s also interesting to see the Seahawks listed as a 4.5-point home favorite for their Super Bowl rematch with the Broncos. You may recall that Denver received 68% of spread bets as a 1.5-point favorite but were blown out by a final score of 43-8.

Bettors can view real-time odds, public betting trends, breaking injury news and more at our new free NFL odds page.

Which Week 3 lines do you think are offering value? Are you surprised the Rams only moved 1-point given Sam Bradford’s season ending injury? Who will win the Super Bowl rematch? Feel free to leave any thoughts, comments or questions in the section below.

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David Solar

David was the Content Manager at Sports Insights. He has since moved on to greener pastures.

  • Effem
    09/10/2014 at 1:51 pm

    So Miami is favored by 1 this week vs Buffalo but 6.5 next week vs KC? Feels wrong to me.

  • Kerry Nettles
    09/14/2014 at 1:19 pm

    Baltimore over Cleveland. Like really a pick em. IDC if they were playing on the moon. Spread should be at least 7

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