2014 NFL Win Totals from LVH

2014 NFL Win Totals from LVH

On Saturday CG Technologies, formerly known as Cantor, released lines for every single NFL game for weeks 1 through 16. Then on Sunday, the LVH posted their NFL win totals for the upcoming 2014 season. With access to all of these point spreads we are easily able to project our own NFL season win totals for the entire league right now.

To do this, we first convert the point spread into a winning percentage for every game on the schedule. For example, a 3-point favorite has an expected winning percentage of 59.37%.  Therefore, every time a team is favored by 3 points, we can credit them with .5937 wins. Conversely, a 3-point underdog would receive .4063 wins (1-.5937).  For week 17 games, we projected the spread by using the previous game between the two teams and adjusting for home field advantage.

By extrapolating these decimals over the course of an entire season, we have developed the following Over/Under projections:

TeamLVH Win TotalOverUnderGames FavoredProjected Wins
Denver Broncos11-140+1201310.788
Seattle Seahawks11-120+1001410.518
New England Patriots10.5-135+115129.828
San Francisco 49ers10.5-120+1001110.128
Green Bay Packers10-145+125129.746
New Orleans Saints9.5-150+13098.984
Indianapolis Colts9.5+130-150109.027
Cincinnati Bengals9-135+11578.568
Philadelphia Eagles9+115-13588.57
Baltimore Ravens8.5-120+10078.507
Pittsburgh Steelers8.5-120even108.707
Detroit Lions8-150+130108.406
Chicago Bears8-140+12088.39
Atlanta Falcons8-130+11078.019
Carolina Panthers8-130+11098.657
Kansas City Chiefs8-120+10078.366
San Diego Chargers8-120+10067.798
Dallas Cowboys8-110-11088.302
Miami Dolphins8+110-13057.672
Houston Texans7.5-145+12578.467
New York Giants7.5-135+11587.873
Arizona Cardinals7.5-120+10077.293
St. Louis Rams7.5-110-11036.521
Washington Redskins7.5+125-14557.346
Tennessee Titans7-130+11046.934
Tampa Bay Buccaneers7-120+10036.84
New York Jets7-125+10536.717
Cleveland Browns6.5-150+13047.035
Buffalo Bills6.5-130+11066.637
Minnesota Vikings6+105-12526.214
Oakland Raiders5+130-15004.826
Jacksonville Jaguars4.5-150+13004.398

Comparing the projected wins to the given total and factoring in the juice on both sides, here are the five bets offering the most value:

Rams – Under 7.5 wins (-110)
Saints – Under 9.5 wins (+130)
Patriots – Under 10.5 wins (+115)
Bengals – Under 9 wins (+115)
Packers – Under 10 wins (+125)

Which teams do you think are offering value? Who are your sleepers for next season? Make sure to leave your thoughts and comments in the section below.

[adrotate group=”4″]


David Solar

David is the Content Manager at Sports Insights. He specializes in sports betting analytics and creating data-driven betting systems.

2 Comments
  • Suchir Saraf
    May 20, 2014 at 4:05 pm

    Question: tell me if I am crazy but couldn’t you take jacksonville under 4.5 at +130 with 16 units and bet 1 unit jacksonville ml every game and lock in profits?

    Thanks,

    Suchir

Post a Comment

Send this to friend