On Saturday CG Technologies, formerly known as Cantor, released lines for every single NFL game for weeks 1 through 16. Then on Sunday, the LVH posted their NFL win totals for the upcoming 2014 season. With access to all of these point spreads we are easily able to project our own NFL season win totals for the entire league right now.
To do this, we first convert the point spread into a winning percentage for every game on the schedule. For example, a 3-point favorite has an expected winning percentage of 59.37%. Therefore, every time a team is favored by 3 points, we can credit them with .5937 wins. Conversely, a 3-point underdog would receive .4063 wins (1-.5937). For week 17 games, we projected the spread by using the previous game between the two teams and adjusting for home field advantage.
By extrapolating these decimals over the course of an entire season, we have developed the following Over/Under projections:
|Team||LVH Win Total||Over||Under||Games Favored||Projected Wins|
|New England Patriots||10.5||-135||+115||12||9.828|
|San Francisco 49ers||10.5||-120||+100||11||10.128|
|Green Bay Packers||10||-145||+125||12||9.746|
|New Orleans Saints||9.5||-150||+130||9||8.984|
|Kansas City Chiefs||8||-120||+100||7||8.366|
|San Diego Chargers||8||-120||+100||6||7.798|
|New York Giants||7.5||-135||+115||8||7.873|
|St. Louis Rams||7.5||-110||-110||3||6.521|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||7||-120||+100||3||6.84|
|New York Jets||7||-125||+105||3||6.717|
Comparing the projected wins to the given total and factoring in the juice on both sides, here are the five bets offering the most value:
Rams – Under 7.5 wins (-110)
Saints – Under 9.5 wins (+130)
Patriots – Under 10.5 wins (+115)
Bengals – Under 9 wins (+115)
Packers – Under 10 wins (+125)
Which teams do you think are offering value? Who are your sleepers for next season? Make sure to leave your thoughts and comments in the section below.