Since 2005, Major League Baseball has arguably been the best sport for Betting Against the Public and the first half of the 2012 season was certainly no different, earning bettors +26.55 units.
The table below shows a breakdown of how bettors following a contrarian betting strategy have performed this MLB season.
|Moneyline Percent||# of Games||Units Won||ROI|
|0% – 40%||944||+14.11||+1.5%|
|0% – 30%||585||+26.55||+4.5%|
|0% – 20%||221||+20.44||+9.2%|
* All Betting Percentages represent Sports Insights’ Betting Trends data.
** Pinnacle’s closing lines were used to determine Units Won.
According to our Bet Labs software, bettors wagering on every team receiving 40% or fewer of moneyline wagers won +14.11 units for a Return On Investment (ROI) of 1.5%.
However, as you can see in the table above, fading larger public favorites increases Units Won and ROI even more.
For example, simply betting against every team receiving 70% or more of public betting action has already produced a profit of +26.55 units and a ROI of 4.5%.
Filtering this even further and solely betting against teams receiving 80% or more of public betting action produced a slightly less profit of +20.44 units, but the massive reduction in the number of games bet more than doubles the ROI to 9.2% at this level.