The Atlanta Falcons are in the Super Bowl! Who would’ve thunk it? On September 13th, they were 100/1 to win the Super Bowl at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook and they didn’t reach shorter than 10/1 odds until the playoffs. On the other hand, the Patriots have not been higher than 6/1 at any point of the season and haven’t been higher than 2/1 since October 18th. While nobody with a Patriots Super Bowl ticket is really going to break the books, some people who took the Falcons could be looking at some big bucks if they win.
— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) January 23, 2017
Led by MVP-lock Matt Ryan, the Falcons are 12-6 against the spread (ATS), which puts them only behind the Pats (15-3) in this year’s ATS standings. Here is how they have fared each week.
Falcons Week-By-Week ATS Results
Despite being the number two seed in the NFC and one of the best ATS teams in the NFL, the public has failed to buy in on the Falcons down the stretch. If you look at the table below, they were clearly not a public team until midway through the season, but they didn’t remain one for long. They’ve only failed to cover once since Week 13, but their public betting percentage has been consistently trending down over the past several weeks. Over their first 18 games, they have only received an average of 52% of spread bets. For comparison, the Patriots have averaged close to 60% of bets since Tom Brady returned in Week 5.
At the time of publication, the Falcons are only receiving 32% of bets for the Super Bowl, but have remained at +3 since the line opened.
Perhaps the most intriguing bit of information about this Falcons team is their propensity to go over the total. In fact, they are the best ‘over’ team in our database, which goes back to 2003.
BEST OVER TEAMS SINCE 2003
If you look at the chart below, you’ll see that their totals have consistently been in the 50’s down the stretch. Also, the over for Falcons’ games has failed to attract at least 60% of public bets just once this season.
One thing to note is that the Falcons’ over has gone undefeated in domes this season — a whopping 11-0 — compared to 4-2-1 in non-dome games.
The roof in Houston is all-but-a-lock to be closed and the total has already gone up from 57.5 to 58 at Pinnacle. Are they due for an under, or will this trend continue? So far, 77% of bettors feel that this game is going over. The three Super Bowls that we have tracked with totals in the 50’s have all gone under, and totals with 60% or more on the over have gone under two out of three times. Essentially, this Super Bowl total is pretty historic.
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