Back in late-April, Sportsbook.com became the first major oddsmaker to release their odds for the 2016 NFL MVP Award. In past seasons, sportsbooks have typically waited until mid-July to start posting this prop bet which made this a fairly interesting development.
Since the award was first handed out in 1957, more quarterbacks have won this award (39) than all other positions combined (21). Included in those other winners are 18 running backs, one defensive tackle (Alan Page in 1971), one place kicker (Mark Moseley in 1982) and one linebacker (Lawrence Taylor in 1986).
The big takeaway is that 95% of past winners have been either running backs or quarterbacks, so bettors should avoid being tempted by trendy sleepers like J.J. Watt or Rob Gronkowski.
The table below displays the past MVP winners along with their preseason odds.
We should note that Sportsbook.com is not very reputable and they’re taking low limits on these MVP odds, but their early release provided an interesting insight into the top MVP candidates for next season. Reigning MVP Cam Newton (+300) was initially listed as the favorite to repeat, while 2014 MVP Aaron Rodgers (+400) was listed with the second-shortest odds.
Despite his four-game suspension, Tom Brady is still considered a serious threat to win his third career MVP award. At the time of publication, Brady had the sixth-shortest odds (+1475) at 5Dimes. It was also surprising to see Ben Roethlisberger (+750) with shorter odds than Cam Newton (+800).
The table below compares the latest NFL MVP odds at 5Dimes, BetOnline and Sportsbook.com.
|Player||5Dimes (8/29)||BetOnline (7/15)||Sportsbk (7/15)||Sportsbk (4/27)|
|Robert Griffin III||+28000||N/A||+25000||+25000|
The section below was originally published on April 27th:
Although these odds will likely change dramatically by the time the regular season rolls around, there are several players that appear to be offering value. One of my personal favorites is Russell Wilson, who’s currently available at 16/1.
The fifth-year veteran has improved steadily every year and posted an incredible stat line last season with over 4,000 passing yards and a 34:8 touchdown to interception ratio. Wilson also had the league’s third-highest completion percentage (68.1%) and the third most rushing yards (553) among quarterbacks.
Only twice in the history of the league has the MVP been awarded to a player whose team did not make the playoffs — the 1967 Baltimore Colts (Johnny Unitas) and the 1973 Buffalo Bills (OJ Simpson). The Seahawks (+435) are the favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, which makes Wilson a safe bet to at least be in the conversation.
Some longshots offering potential values include: David Johnson (150/1), Tony Romo (75/1), Derek Carr (75/1) and Adrian Peterson (60/1).
Which players do you think are offering value? Do you think that Cam Newton will be able repeat? Please leave your thoughts in the comment section below.
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