2016 NFL MVP Odds

Back in late-April, Sportsbook.com became the first major oddsmaker to release their odds for the 2016 NFL MVP Award. In past seasons, sportsbooks have typically waited until mid-July to start posting this prop bet which made this a fairly interesting development.

Since the award was first handed out in 1957, more quarterbacks have won this award (39) than all other positions combined (21). Included in those other winners are 18 running backs, one defensive tackle (Alan Page in 1971), one place kicker (Mark Moseley in 1982) and one linebacker (Lawrence Taylor in 1986).

The big takeaway is that 95% of past winners have been either running backs or quarterbacks, so bettors should avoid being tempted by trendy sleepers like J.J. Watt or Rob Gronkowski.

The table below displays the past MVP winners along with their preseason odds.

Year Player Position Preseason Odds
2015 Cam Newton QB +1500
2014 Aaron Rodgers QB +600
2013 Peyton Manning QB +600
2012 Adrian Peterson RB +4000
2011 Aaron Rodgers QB +400
2010 Tom Brady QB +800
2009 Peyton Manning QB +500

Prior to the start of the season, reigning MVP Cam Newton (+300) was listed as the favorite to repeat and 2014 MVP Aaron Rodgers (+400) was listed with the second-shortest odds. Despite his four-game suspension, Tom Brady (+1500) was also considered a serious threat to win his third career MVP award. That said, it’s important to realize that Sportsbook.com is not very reputable and they take low limits on these type of prop bets.

Both Rodgers and Newton have been somewhat disappointing this season, while Tom Brady has been methodically dissecting opposing defenses. In eight games, Brady has passed for nearly 2,500 yards with 19 touchdowns and just one interception. After missing four games to start the season, Brady had been the MVP frontrunner for the past six weeks. That all changed following Week 13.

Derek Carr has been phenomenal this season, passing for nearly 3,400 yards and 24 touchdowns while guiding the Raiders to an NFL-best 10-2 record. Last week he racked up 260 yards and two touchdows in a come-from-behind victory over the Buffalo Bills. I mentioned Carr as an undervalued player during the preseason, when he was listed as a 75/1 longshot, but he’s now the co-favorite at +450.

It’s also fascinating to observe the rapid rise of Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott. The rookie running back opened the season as a 135/1 longshot at 5Dimes, but he’s currently tied with Derek Carr for the best MVP odds at +450. His teammate, Dak Prescott, has moved from 100/1 to 8/1 since the preseason.

The table below compares the latest NFL MVP odds at 5Dimes, BetOnline, Bovada, Bookmaker and Sportsbook.com.

Player 5Dimes (12/6) BetOnline (11/28) Bovada (11/22) 5Dimes (11/16) Bovada (11/9) Bovada (11/3) Bovada (10/27) Bovada (10/20) Bovada (10/14) Bookmaker (9/7) 5Dimes (8/29) BetOnline (7/15) Sportsbk (7/15) Sportsbk (4/27)
Ezekiel Elliott +450 +400 +450 +425 +900 +750 +600 +800 +800 +6000 +13500 +3300 +10000 N/A
Derek Carr +450 +600 +900 +1600 +900 +1200 +3300 +2500 +2800 +4500 +7000 +2500 +6000 +7500
Tom Brady +500 +325 +275 +240 +160 +125 +150 +250 +650 +1604 +1475 +1200 +1200 +1500
Russell Wilson +1000 +1400 +350 +1450 +2000 +2500 +2000 +800 +700 +501 +1075 +900 +700 +1600
Dak Prescott +1200 +800 +1400 +2000 +2000 +1200 +1800 +1600 N/A N/A +10000 N/A N/A N/A
Matt Ryan +1200 +550 +600 +500 +300 +550 +1200 +750 +450 +13500 +9000 +3300 +9000 +7000
Matt Stafford +1400 +1600 +1600 +5000 +1600 +5000 +4000 +10000 +10000 N/A +10000 +5000 +10000 +10000
Khalil Mack +2500 +4000 N/A +8000 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +15000 +5000 +15000 +15000
Kirk Cousins +2500 +2500 +3300 +10000 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +10000 +11500 +3300 +15000 +15000
Le'Veon Bell +3500 +4000 N/A +10000 +6600 +5000 +3300 +3300 +3300 +5000 +8000 +2500 +4000 +5000
David Johnson +3500 +3300 +5000 N/A +2500 +2000 +1000 +1600 +2200 +5000 +7500 +3300 +15000 +15000
Julio Jones +5000 +5000 +3300 +5000 +5000 +5000 +2800 +2500 +2000 +8500 +11000 +3300 +10000 +10000
Andrew Luck +5500 +10000 +5000 +5000 +2000 +2500 +1200 +4000 +2500 +1253 +1400 +800 +1400 +1400
Von Miller +6600 +6600 N/A +5000 +5000 +5000 +3300 +2500 +2000 +12500 +20000 +4000 +20000 +15000
Drew Brees +6600 +4000 +3300 +5000 +2000 +2500 +3300 +3300 +6600 +2542 +3500 +2500 +3000 +3000
Antonio Brown +8000 +5000 N/A +20000 +6600 +5000 +5000 +3300 +3300 N/A +5000 +5000 +10000 +10000
LeSean McCoy +8000 +6600 N/A +10000 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +30000 +10000 +30000 +30000
Marcus Mariota +10000 N/A N/A +10000 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +10000 +5000 +12500 +12500
Demarco Murray +10000 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +25000 N/A +25000 +25000
Aaron Rodgers +10000 +10000 +6600 +5000 +3300 +2500 +1600 +1200 +650 +501 +620 +700 +450 +400
Ben Roethlisberger +10000 +6600 +3300 +8000 N/A N/A N/A N/A +500 +703 +750 +700 +650 +700
Laquon Treadwell N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +30000 N/A N/A N/A
Sam Bradford N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +10000 +3300 +1600 +1200 N/A +22500 N/A +15000 +20000
Rob Gronkowski N/A N/A N/A +10000 +5000 +5000 +6600 N/A N/A +6000 +7500 +2500 +7500 +7500
Emmanuel Sanders N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +40000 N/A +40000 +40000
Philip Rivers N/A N/A N/A +10000 +2000 +5000 +2500 +6600 +15000 N/A +10000 +3300 +12500 +12500
Luke Kuechly N/A N/A N/A +15000 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +25000 +5000 +40000 +25000
A.J. Green N/A N/A N/A +10000 N/A +10000 +10000 +10000 +6600 N/A +25000 +8000 +25000 +25000
Tony Romo N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +30000 +12500 +2000 +6000 +7500
Jamaal Charles N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +13000 +5000 +15000 +15000
JJ Watt N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +5000 +8000 +2500 +6000 +10000
Carson Wentz N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +10000 +6600 +10000 +3300 N/A +40000 N/A +40000 +40000
Alex Smith N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +15000 +10000 +15000 +15000
Brock Osweiler N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +15000 +10000 +10000 +12500
Eddie Lacy N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +15000 +5000 +9000 +9000
Joe Flacco N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +15000 +5000 +12500 +8000
Jared Goff N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +40000 N/A +30000 +40000
DeAndre Hopkins N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +20000 +6600 +17500 +15000
Ryan Tannehill N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +20000 N/A +15000 +40000
Trevor Siemian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +20000 N/A N/A N/A
Alshon Jeffery N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +20000 N/A +15000 +15000
Dez Bryant N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +20000 +6600 +20000 +15000
Todd Gurley N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +3415 +4800 +3300 +4000 +4000
Tyrod Taylor N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +20000 N/A +12500 +12500
Brandon Marshall N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +22500 N/A N/A N/A
Keenan Allen N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +22500 N/A N/A N/A
Lamar Miller N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +22500 N/A N/A N/A
Teddy Bridgewater N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +6600 +10000 +15000
Carson Palmer N/A N/A N/A +10000 N/A N/A +10000 +3300 +10000 +1303 +1700 +1000 +1400 +1600
Josh Norman N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +25000 N/A N/A N/A
Jordy Nelson N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +25000 N/A +25000 +25000
Jordan Reed N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +25000 N/A N/A N/A
Adrian Peterson N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +2006 +3500 +1200 +4000 +6000
Jameis Winston N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +15000 +15000 N/A +9000 +5000 +12500 +9000
Cam Newton N/A N/A +6600 +8000 +3300 +3300 +6600 +10000 +4000 +554 +800 +500 +700 +300
Jonathan Stewart N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +25000 N/A +25000 +25000
Ryan Fitzpatrick N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +27500 N/A +30000 +30000
Robert Griffin III N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +28000 N/A +25000 +25000
Jimmy Garoppolo N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +30000 N/A N/A N/A
Odell Beckham N/A N/A N/A +10000 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +15000 +6600 +12500 +10000
Greg Olsen N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +30000 N/A N/A N/A
Jeremy Maclin N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +30000 N/A +30000 +30000
Larry Fitzgerald N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +30000 N/A +30000 +25000
Colin Kaepernick N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +30000 N/A +25000 +25000
Jimmy Graham N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +30000 N/A +30000 +25000
Devonta Freeman N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +30000 +5000 +30000 +30000
Doug Martin N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +30000 +5000 +30000 +30000
Thomas Rawls N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +30000 N/A +25000 +50000
Jay Cutler N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +12500 +6600 +12500 +15000
Amari Cooper N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +30000 +10000 +20000 +20000
Jordan Matthews N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +30000 N/A N/A N/A
TY Hilton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +32500 N/A +25000 +25000
Eli Manning N/A +10000 +6600 +10000 +6600 +10000 +6600 +3300 +10000 +2439 +3500 +2500 +2500 +6000
Tyrann Mathieu N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +25000 N/A N/A N/A
Johnny Manziel N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +900000 N/A +500000 +500000
Derrick Henry N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +175000 N/A N/A N/A
Latavius Murray N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +50000 N/A N/A N/A
Blaine Gabbert N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +50000 N/A N/A N/A
Brandin Cooks N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +50000 N/A N/A N/A
Kelvin Benjamin N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +50000 N/A N/A N/A
Travis Kelce N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +50000 N/A N/A N/A
Golden Tate N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +50000 N/A +50000 +50000
Mark Sanchez N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +50000 +10000 +15000 +20000
Paxton Lynch N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +50000 N/A N/A N/A
Dion Lewis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +50000 N/A N/A N/A
Mark Ingram N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +50000 N/A +50000 +50000
Demaryius Thomas N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +50000 N/A +25000 +25000
Melvin Gordon N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +50000 N/A +50000 +50000
Clay Matthews N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +50000 N/A +50000 +40000
TJ Yeldon N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +50000 N/A +50000 +50000
Allen Robinson N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +40000 +8000 +25000 +15000
Richard Sherman N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +40000 N/A +40000 +25000
Doug Baldwin N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +40000 N/A +40000 +30000
Blake Bortles N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +7500 +7500 +3300 +7500 +7500
Julian Edelman N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +40000 N/A +40000 +40000
Ndamukong Suh N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +40000 N/A +40000 +35000
Andy Dalton N/A N/A N/A +10000 N/A N/A +10000 +10000 +15000 +6500 +6000 +3300 +5000 +2000

The section below was originally published on April 27th:

Although these odds will likely change dramatically by the time the regular season rolls around, there are several players that appear to be offering value. One of my personal favorites is Russell Wilson, who’s currently available at 16/1.

The fifth-year veteran has improved steadily every year and posted an incredible stat line last season with over 4,000 passing yards and a 34:8 touchdown to interception ratio. Wilson also had the league’s third-highest completion percentage (68.1%) and the third most rushing yards (553) among quarterbacks.

Only twice in the history of the league has the MVP been awarded to a player whose team did not make the playoffs — the 1967 Baltimore Colts (Johnny Unitas) and the 1973 Buffalo Bills (OJ Simpson). The Seahawks (+435) are the favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, which makes Wilson a safe bet to at least be in the conversation.

Some long shots offering potential values include: David Johnson (150/1), Tony Romo (75/1), Derek Carr (75/1) and Adrian Peterson (60/1).

Which players do you think are offering value? Do you think that Cam Newton will be able repeat? Please leave your thoughts in the comment section below.

Have any questions for the staff at Sports Insights? Utilize our live chat to speak with a customer service representative or e-mail us at help@sportsinsights.com.

The following two tabs change content below.

David Solar

David Solar has been the Content Manager at Sports Insights for over four years. He specializes in sports betting analytics and has created several popular data-driven betting systems. He can be reached directly at david@sportsinsights.com or on twitter at @TheDavidSolar.

No Comments Permalink

Say something

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked with a grey bar.

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>