2016 NFL MVP Odds

2016 NFL MVP Odds

Back in late-April, Sportsbook.com became the first major oddsmaker to release their odds for the 2016 NFL MVP Award. In past seasons, sportsbooks have typically waited until mid-July to start posting this prop bet which made this a fairly interesting development.

Since the award was first handed out in 1957, more quarterbacks have won this award (39) than all other positions combined (21). Included in those other winners are 18 running backs, one defensive tackle (Alan Page in 1971), one place kicker (Mark Moseley in 1982) and one linebacker (Lawrence Taylor in 1986).

The big takeaway is that 95% of past winners have been either running backs or quarterbacks, so bettors should avoid being tempted by trendy sleepers like J.J. Watt or Rob Gronkowski.

The table below displays the past MVP winners along with their preseason odds.

YearPlayerPositionPreseason Odds
2015Cam NewtonQB+1500
2014Aaron RodgersQB+600
2013Peyton ManningQB+600
2012Adrian PetersonRB+4000
2011Aaron RodgersQB+400
2010Tom BradyQB+800
2009Peyton ManningQB+500

Prior to the start of the season, reigning MVP Cam Newton (+300) was listed as the favorite to repeat and 2014 MVP Aaron Rodgers (+400) was listed with the second-shortest odds. Despite his four-game suspension, Tom Brady (+1500) was also considered a serious threat to win his third career MVP award. That said, it’s important to realize that Sportsbook.com is not very reputable and they take low limits on these type of prop bets.

Although Newton and the Panthers have been one of the league’s biggest disappointments, Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers have been methodically dissecting opposing defenses. Despite missing four games to start the season, Brady threw for 3,554 yards with 28 touchdowns and just 2 interceptions — that’s the best touchdown-to-interception ratio in a single season. Brady (+900) is listed with the third-best odds of winning the NFL MVP Award.

Aaron Rodgers, who was listed as with 100/1 odds at 5Dimes just over one month ago, has been arguably the league’s hottest player. After starting the season with a 4-6 record, it seems like the Packers playoff prospects were grim. However, Rodgers guided Green Bay to six consecutive wins en route to the NFC North title and a home playoff game. During the regular season, Rodgers threw for 4,428 yards with 44 total touchdowns and 7 interceptions. He’s listed with the second-best odds (+500) to win the MVP Award.

Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan, who led the league with an 83.4 total QBR, has emerged as the odds-on favorite (-900) to be named the league’s most valuable player. This season Ryan has thrown for 4,944 yards with 38 touchdowns and 7 interceptions while leading his team to an NFC South crown and a first-round bye. Before the season, Ryan was available at 135/1 to win the MVP Award.

It’s also fascinating to observe the rapid rise of Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott. The rookie opened the season as a 135/1 long shot at 5Dimes, but he’s currently listed with the fourth-best odds (+1800) at BetOnline. Elliott was listed as the favorite just three weeks ago, but his odds took a substantial tumble when he was benched in Week 17. For what it’s worth, Elliott would be the first rookie to win the MVP Award since Jim Brown in 1957.

The table below compares the latest NFL MVP odds at 5Dimes, BetOnline, Bovada, Bookmaker, Paddy Power and Sportsbook.com.

PlayerBovada (1/18)BetOnline (1/6)Paddy Power (1/3)Paddy Power (12/27)Bovada (12/20)Paddy Power (12/13)5Dimes (12/6)BetOnline (11/28)Bovada (11/22)5Dimes (11/16)Bovada (11/9)Bovada (11/3)Bovada (10/27)Bovada (10/20)Bovada (10/14)Bookmaker (9/7)5Dimes (8/29)BetOnline (7/15)Sportsbk (7/15)Sportsbk (4/27)
Matt Ryan-900-275+180+250+450+750+1200+550+600+500+300+550+1200+750+450+13500+9000+3300+9000+7000
Aaron Rodgers+500+425+180+333+1000+5000+10000+10000+6600+5000+3300+2500+1600+1200+650+501+620+700+450+400
Tom Brady+900+425+275+250+250+300+500+325+275+240+160+125+150+250+650+1604+1475+1200+1200+1500
Ezekiel Elliott+2500+1800+600+333+190+333+450+400+450+425+900+750+600+800+800+6000+13500+3300+10000N/A
Derek Carr+5000+5000+2500+3300+700+550+450+600+900+1600+900+1200+3300+2500+2800+4500+7000+2500+6000+7500
Dak Prescott+5000+6600+2500+2500N/A+1600+1200+800+1400+2000+2000+1200+1800+1600N/AN/A+10000N/AN/AN/A
Le'Veon Bell+6600+6600N/A+2500+1600+6600+3500+4000N/A+10000+6600+5000+3300+3300+3300+5000+8000+2500+4000+5000
Trevor SiemianN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+20000N/AN/AN/A
Matt StaffordN/AN/AN/A+3300+1600+900+1400+1600+1600+5000+1600+5000+4000+10000+10000N/A+10000+5000+10000+10000
David JohnsonN/AN/AN/A+4000N/A+4000+3500+3300+5000N/A+2500+2000+1000+1600+2200+5000+7500+3300+15000+15000
Drew BreesN/AN/AN/A+5000N/A+5000+6600+4000+3300+5000+2000+2500+3300+3300+6600+2542+3500+2500+3000+3000
Andrew LuckN/AN/AN/A+6600N/A+5000+5500+10000+5000+5000+2000+2500+1200+4000+2500+1253+1400+800+1400+1400
Tyrann MathieuN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+25000N/AN/AN/A
Khalil MackN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+5000+2500+4000N/A+8000N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+15000+5000+15000+15000
Von MillerN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+6600+6600N/A+5000+5000+5000+3300+2500+2000+12500+20000+4000+20000+15000
Antonio BrownN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+10000+8000+5000N/A+20000+6600+5000+5000+3300+3300N/A+5000+5000+10000+10000
LeSean McCoyN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+10000+8000+6600N/A+10000N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+30000+10000+30000+30000
Marcus MariotaN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+8000+10000N/AN/A+10000N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+10000+5000+12500+12500
Demarco MurrayN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+8000+10000N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+25000N/A+25000+25000
Ben RoethlisbergerN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+10000+10000+6600+3300+8000N/AN/AN/AN/A+500+703+750+700+650+700
Mark SanchezN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+50000+10000+15000+20000
Amari CooperN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+30000+10000+20000+20000
Odell BeckhamN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+10000N/AN/AN/A+10000N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+15000+6600+12500+10000
Thomas RawlsN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+30000N/A+25000+50000
Jay CutlerN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+12500+6600+12500+15000
Robert Griffin IIIN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+28000N/A+25000+25000
Colin KaepernickN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+30000N/A+25000+25000
Sam BradfordN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+10000+3300+1600+1200N/A+22500N/A+15000+20000
Tyrod TaylorN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+20000N/A+12500+12500
Brandon MarshallN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+22500N/AN/AN/A
Keenan AllenN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+22500N/AN/AN/A
Lamar MillerN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+22500N/AN/AN/A
Teddy BridgewaterN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+6600+10000+15000
Andy DaltonN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+8000N/AN/AN/A+10000N/AN/A+10000+10000+15000+6500+6000+3300+5000+2000
Jordy NelsonN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+25000N/A+25000+25000
Jordan ReedN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+25000N/AN/AN/A
Adrian PetersonN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+2006+3500+1200+4000+6000
Jameis WinstonN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+15000+15000N/A+9000+5000+12500+9000
Cam NewtonN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+6600+8000+3300+3300+6600+10000+4000+554+800+500+700+300
Tony RomoN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+30000+12500+2000+6000+7500
Jonathan StewartN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+25000N/A+25000+25000
Jamaal CharlesN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+13000+5000+15000+15000
JJ WattN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+5000+8000+2500+6000+10000
Carson WentzN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+10000+6600+10000+3300N/A+40000N/A+40000+40000
Alex SmithN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+15000+10000+15000+15000
Brock OsweilerN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+15000+10000+10000+12500
Eddie LacyN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+15000+5000+9000+9000
Joe FlaccoN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+15000+5000+12500+8000
Julio JonesN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+5000+5000+5000+3300+5000+5000+5000+2800+2500+2000+8500+11000+3300+10000+10000
Jared GoffN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+40000N/A+30000+40000
DeAndre HopkinsN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+20000+6600+17500+15000
Russell WilsonN/AN/AN/A+2500+3300+550+1000+1400+350+1450+2000+2500+2000+800+700+501+1075+900+700+1600
Kirk CousinsN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+2500+2500+3300+10000N/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+10000+11500+3300+15000+15000
Alshon JefferyN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+20000N/A+15000+15000
Philip RiversN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+8000N/AN/AN/A+10000+2000+5000+2500+6600+15000N/A+10000+3300+12500+12500
Eli ManningN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+6600N/A+10000+6600+10000+6600+10000+6600+3300+10000+2439+3500+2500+2500+6000
TY Hilton N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+32500N/A+25000+25000
Golden TateN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+50000N/A+50000+50000
Jeremy MaclinN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+30000N/A+30000+30000
Jordan MatthewsN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+30000N/AN/AN/A
Ryan FitzpatrickN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+27500N/A+30000+30000
Laquon TreadwellN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+30000N/AN/AN/A
Josh NormanN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+25000N/AN/AN/A
Rob GronkowskiN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+10000+5000+5000+6600N/AN/A+6000+7500+2500+7500+7500
Emmanuel SandersN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+40000N/A+40000+40000
Carson PalmerN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+10000N/AN/A+10000+3300+10000+1303+1700+1000+1400+1600
Luke KuechlyN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+15000N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+25000+5000+40000+25000
A.J. GreenN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+10000N/A+10000+10000+10000+6600N/A+25000+8000+25000+25000
Dez BryantN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+20000+6600+20000+15000
Travis KelceN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+50000N/AN/AN/A
Kelvin BenjaminN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+50000N/AN/AN/A
Brandin CooksN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+50000N/AN/AN/A
Blaine GabbertN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+50000N/AN/AN/A
Latavius MurrayN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+50000N/AN/AN/A
Derrick HenryN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+175000N/AN/AN/A
Clay MatthewsN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+50000N/A+50000+40000
TJ YeldonN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+50000N/A+50000+50000
Melvin GordonN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+50000N/A+50000+50000
Demaryius ThomasN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+50000N/A+25000+25000
Mark IngramN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+50000N/A+50000+50000
Dion LewisN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+50000N/AN/AN/A
Paxton LynchN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+50000N/AN/AN/A
Todd GurleyN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+3415+4800+3300+4000+4000
Jimmy GaroppoloN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+30000N/AN/AN/A
Allen RobinsonN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+40000+8000+25000+15000
Richard ShermanN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+40000N/A+40000+25000
Greg OlsenN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+30000N/AN/AN/A
Johnny ManzielN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+900000N/A+500000+500000
Larry FitzgeraldN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+30000N/A+30000+25000
Jimmy GrahamN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+30000N/A+30000+25000
Devonta FreemanN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+30000+5000+30000+30000
Doug MartinN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+30000+5000+30000+30000
Doug BaldwinN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+40000N/A+40000+30000
Blake BortlesN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+7500+7500+3300+7500+7500
Julian EdelmanN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+40000N/A+40000+40000
Ndamukong SuhN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+40000N/A+40000+35000
Ryan TannehillN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+20000N/A+15000+40000

The section below was originally published on April 27th:

Although these odds will likely change dramatically by the time the regular season rolls around, there are several players that appear to be offering value. One of my personal favorites is Russell Wilson, who’s currently available at 16/1.

The fifth-year veteran has improved steadily every year and posted an incredible stat line last season with over 4,000 passing yards and a 34:8 touchdown to interception ratio. Wilson also had the league’s third-highest completion percentage (68.1%) and the third most rushing yards (553) among quarterbacks.

Only twice in the history of the league has the MVP been awarded to a player whose team did not make the playoffs — the 1967 Baltimore Colts (Johnny Unitas) and the 1973 Buffalo Bills (OJ Simpson). The Seahawks (+435) are the favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, which makes Wilson a safe bet to at least be in the conversation.

Some long shots offering potential values include: David Johnson (150/1), Tony Romo (75/1), Derek Carr (75/1) and Adrian Peterson (60/1).

Which players do you think are offering value? Do you think that Cam Newton will be able repeat? Please leave your thoughts in the comment section below.

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David Solar

David is the Content Manager at Sports Insights. He specializes in sports betting analytics and creating data-driven betting systems.

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