2016 NFL MVP Odds

Back in late-April, Sportsbook.com became the first major oddsmaker to release their odds for the 2016 NFL MVP Award. In past seasons, sportsbooks have typically waited until mid-July to start posting this prop bet which made this a fairly interesting development.

Since the award was first handed out in 1957, more quarterbacks have won this award (39) than all other positions combined (21). Included in those other winners are 18 running backs, one defensive tackle (Alan Page in 1971), one place kicker (Mark Moseley in 1982) and one linebacker (Lawrence Taylor in 1986).

The big takeaway is that 95% of past winners have been either running backs or quarterbacks, so bettors should avoid being tempted by trendy sleepers like J.J. Watt or Rob Gronkowski.

early-bird-blog

The table below displays the past MVP winners along with their preseason odds.

Year Player Position Preseason Odds
2015 Cam Newton QB +1500
2014 Aaron Rodgers QB +600
2013 Peyton Manning QB +600
2012 Adrian Peterson RB +4000
2011 Aaron Rodgers QB +400
2010 Tom Brady QB +800
2009 Peyton Manning QB +500

We should note that Sportsbook.com is not very reputable and they’re taking low limits on these MVP odds, but their early release provided an interesting insight into the top MVP candidates for next season. Reigning MVP Cam Newton (+300) was initially listed as the favorite to repeat, while 2014 MVP Aaron Rodgers (+400) was listed with the second-shortest odds.

Despite his four-game suspension, Tom Brady is still considered a serious threat to win his third career MVP award. At the time of publication, Brady had the sixth-shortest odds (+1475) at 5Dimes. It was also surprising to see Ben Roethlisberger (+750) with shorter odds than Cam Newton (+800).

The table below compares the latest NFL MVP odds at 5Dimes, BetOnline and Sportsbook.com.

Player 5Dimes (8/29) BetOnline (7/15) Sportsbk (7/15) Sportsbk (4/27)
Aaron Rodgers +620 +700 +450 +400
Ben Roethlisberger +750 +700 +650 +700
Cam Newton +800 +500 +700 +300
Russell Wilson +1075 +900 +700 +1600
Andrew Luck +1400 +800 +1400 +1400
Tom Brady +1475 +1200 +1200 +1500
Carson Palmer +1700 +1000 +1400 +1600
Adrian Peterson +3500 +1200 +4000 +6000
Drew Brees +3500 +2500 +3000 +3000
Eli Manning +3500 +2500 +2500 +6000
Todd Gurley +4800 +3300 +4000 +4000
Antonio Brown +5000 +5000 +10000 +10000
Andy Dalton +6000 +3300 +5000 +2000
Derek Carr +7000 +2500 +6000 +7500
Blake Bortles +7500 +3300 +7500 +7500
David Johnson +7500 +3300 +15000 +15000
Rob Gronkowski +7500 +2500 +7500 +7500
JJ Watt +8000 +2500 +6000 +10000
Le'Veon Bell +8000 +2500 +4000 +5000
Jameis Winston +9000 +5000 +12500 +9000
Matt Ryan +9000 +3300 +9000 +7000
Philip Rivers +10000 +3300 +12500 +12500
Marcus Mariota +10000 +5000 +12500 +12500
Dak Prescott +10000 N/A N/A N/A
Matt Stafford +10000 +5000 +10000 +10000
Julio Jones +11000 +3300 +10000 +10000
Kirk Cousins +11500 +3300 +15000 +15000
Jay Cutler +12500 +6600 +12500 +15000
Tony Romo +12500 +2000 +6000 +7500
Jamaal Charles +13000 +5000 +15000 +15000
Ezekiel Elliot +13500 +3300 +10000 N/A
Joe Flacco +15000 +5000 +12500 +8000
Khalil Mack +15000 +5000 +15000 +15000
Odell Beckham +15000 +6600 +12500 +10000
Alex Smith +15000 +10000 +15000 +15000
Brock Osweiler +15000 +10000 +10000 +12500
Eddie Lacy +15000 +5000 +9000 +9000
Tyrod Taylor +20000 N/A +12500 +12500
Ryan Tannehill +20000 N/A +15000 +40000
DeAndre Hopkins +20000 +6600 +17500 +15000
Von Miller +20000 +4000 +20000 +15000
Trevor Siemian +20000 N/A N/A N/A
Alshon Jeffery +20000 N/A +15000 +15000
Dez Bryant +20000 +6600 +20000 +15000
Sam Bradford +22500 N/A +15000 +20000
Lamar Miller +22500 N/A N/A N/A
Brandon Marshall +22500 N/A N/A N/A
Keenan Allen +22500 N/A N/A N/A
Tyrann Mathieu +25000 N/A N/A N/A
Josh Norman +25000 N/A N/A N/A
Jordy Nelson +25000 N/A +25000 +25000
Jordan Reed +25000 N/A N/A N/A
Luke Kuechly +25000 +5000 +40000 +25000
Demarco Murray +25000 N/A +25000 +25000
AJ Green +25000 +8000 +25000 +25000
Jonathan Stewart +25000 N/A +25000 +25000
Ryan Fitzpatrick +27500 N/A +30000 +30000
Robert Griffin III +28000 N/A +25000 +25000
Jimmy Graham +30000 N/A +30000 +25000
Laquon Treadwell +30000 N/A N/A N/A
Devonta Freeman +30000 +5000 +30000 +30000
Greg Olsen +30000 N/A N/A N/A
Jeremy Maclin +30000 N/A +30000 +30000
Larry Fitzgerald +30000 N/A +30000 +25000
Colin Kaepernick +30000 N/A +25000 +25000
Jordan Matthews +30000 N/A N/A N/A
Jimmy Garoppolo +30000 N/A N/A N/A
Doug Martin +30000 +5000 +30000 +30000
Thomas Rawls +30000 N/A +25000 +50000
LeSean McCoy +30000 +10000 +30000 +30000
Amari Cooper +30000 +10000 +20000 +20000
TY Hilton +32500 N/A +25000 +25000
Jared Goff +40000 N/A +30000 +40000
Emmanuel Sanders +40000 N/A +40000 +40000
Ndamukong Suh +40000 N/A +40000 +35000
Julian Edelman +40000 N/A +40000 +40000
Carson Wentz +40000 N/A +40000 +40000
Doug Baldwin +40000 N/A +40000 +30000
Richard Sherman +40000 N/A +40000 +25000
Allen Robinson +40000 +8000 +25000 +15000
Clay Matthews +50000 N/A +50000 +40000
Golden Tate +50000 N/A +50000 +50000
Melvin Gordon +50000 N/A +50000 +50000
Demaryius Thomas +50000 N/A +25000 +25000
Mark Ingram +50000 N/A +50000 +50000
Dion Lewis +50000 N/A N/A N/A
Paxton Lynch +50000 N/A N/A N/A
Mark Sanchez +50000 +10000 +15000 +20000
TJ Yeldon +50000 N/A +50000 +50000
Travis Kelce +50000 N/A N/A N/A
Kelvin Benjamin +50000 N/A N/A N/A
Brandin Cooks +50000 N/A N/A N/A
Blaine Gabbert +50000 N/A N/A N/A
Latavius Murray +50000 N/A N/A N/A
Derrick Henry +175000 N/A N/A N/A
Johnny Manziel +900000 N/A +500000 +500000
Teddy Bridgewater N/A +6600 +10000 +15000

The section below was originally published on April 27th:

Although these odds will likely change dramatically by the time the regular season rolls around, there are several players that appear to be offering value. One of my personal favorites is Russell Wilson, who’s currently available at 16/1.

The fifth-year veteran has improved steadily every year and posted an incredible stat line last season with over 4,000 passing yards and a 34:8 touchdown to interception ratio. Wilson also had the league’s third-highest completion percentage (68.1%) and the third most rushing yards (553) among quarterbacks.

Only twice in the history of the league has the MVP been awarded to a player whose team did not make the playoffs — the 1967 Baltimore Colts (Johnny Unitas) and the 1973 Buffalo Bills (OJ Simpson). The Seahawks (+435) are the favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, which makes Wilson a safe bet to at least be in the conversation.

Some longshots offering potential values include: David Johnson (150/1), Tony Romo (75/1), Derek Carr (75/1) and Adrian Peterson (60/1).

Which players do you think are offering value? Do you think that Cam Newton will be able repeat? Please leave your thoughts in the comment section below.

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David Solar

David Solar has been the Content Manager at Sports Insights for over four years. He specializes in sports betting analytics and has created several popular data-driven betting systems. He can be reached directly at david@sportsinsights.com or on twitter at @TheDavidSolar.

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