2016 NFL MVP Odds

Back in late-April, Sportsbook.com became the first major oddsmaker to release their odds for the 2016 NFL MVP Award. In past seasons, sportsbooks have typically waited until mid-July to start posting this prop bet which made this a fairly interesting development.

Since the award was first handed out in 1957, more quarterbacks have won this award (39) than all other positions combined (21). Included in those other winners are 18 running backs, one defensive tackle (Alan Page in 1971), one place kicker (Mark Moseley in 1982) and one linebacker (Lawrence Taylor in 1986).

The big takeaway is that 95% of past winners have been either running backs or quarterbacks, so bettors should avoid being tempted by trendy sleepers like J.J. Watt or Rob Gronkowski.

The table below displays the past MVP winners along with their preseason odds.

Year Player Position Preseason Odds
2015 Cam Newton QB +1500
2014 Aaron Rodgers QB +600
2013 Peyton Manning QB +600
2012 Adrian Peterson RB +4000
2011 Aaron Rodgers QB +400
2010 Tom Brady QB +800
2009 Peyton Manning QB +500

Prior to the start of the season, reigning MVP Cam Newton (+300) was listed as the favorite to repeat and 2014 MVP Aaron Rodgers (+400) was listed with the second-shortest odds. Despite his four-game suspension, Tom Brady (+1500) was also considered a serious threat to win his third career MVP award. That said, it’s important to realize that Sportsbook.com is not very reputable and they take low limits on these type of prop bets.

Although Newton and the Panthers have been one of the league’s biggest disappointments, Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers have been methodically dissecting opposing defenses. Despite missing four games to start the season, Brady threw for 3,554 yards with 28 touchdowns and just 2 interceptions — that’s the best touchdown-to-interception ratio in a single season. Brady (+900) is listed with the third-best odds of winning the NFL MVP Award.

Aaron Rodgers, who was listed as with 100/1 odds at 5Dimes just over one month ago, has been arguably the league’s hottest player. After starting the season with a 4-6 record, it seems like the Packers playoff prospects were grim. However, Rodgers guided Green Bay to six consecutive wins en route to the NFC North title and a home playoff game. During the regular season, Rodgers threw for 4,428 yards with 44 total touchdowns and 7 interceptions. He’s listed with the second-best odds (+500) to win the MVP Award.

Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan, who led the league with an 83.4 total QBR, has emerged as the odds-on favorite (-900) to be named the league’s most valuable player. This season Ryan has thrown for 4,944 yards with 38 touchdowns and 7 interceptions while leading his team to an NFC South crown and a first-round bye. Before the season, Ryan was available at 135/1 to win the MVP Award.

It’s also fascinating to observe the rapid rise of Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott. The rookie opened the season as a 135/1 long shot at 5Dimes, but he’s currently listed with the fourth-best odds (+1800) at BetOnline. Elliott was listed as the favorite just three weeks ago, but his odds took a substantial tumble when he was benched in Week 17. For what it’s worth, Elliott would be the first rookie to win the MVP Award since Jim Brown in 1957.

The table below compares the latest NFL MVP odds at 5Dimes, BetOnline, Bovada, Bookmaker, Paddy Power and Sportsbook.com.

Player Bovada (1/18) BetOnline (1/6) Paddy Power (1/3) Paddy Power (12/27) Bovada (12/20) Paddy Power (12/13) 5Dimes (12/6) BetOnline (11/28) Bovada (11/22) 5Dimes (11/16) Bovada (11/9) Bovada (11/3) Bovada (10/27) Bovada (10/20) Bovada (10/14) Bookmaker (9/7) 5Dimes (8/29) BetOnline (7/15) Sportsbk (7/15) Sportsbk (4/27)
Matt Ryan -900 -275 +180 +250 +450 +750 +1200 +550 +600 +500 +300 +550 +1200 +750 +450 +13500 +9000 +3300 +9000 +7000
Aaron Rodgers +500 +425 +180 +333 +1000 +5000 +10000 +10000 +6600 +5000 +3300 +2500 +1600 +1200 +650 +501 +620 +700 +450 +400
Tom Brady +900 +425 +275 +250 +250 +300 +500 +325 +275 +240 +160 +125 +150 +250 +650 +1604 +1475 +1200 +1200 +1500
Ezekiel Elliott +2500 +1800 +600 +333 +190 +333 +450 +400 +450 +425 +900 +750 +600 +800 +800 +6000 +13500 +3300 +10000 N/A
Derek Carr +5000 +5000 +2500 +3300 +700 +550 +450 +600 +900 +1600 +900 +1200 +3300 +2500 +2800 +4500 +7000 +2500 +6000 +7500
Dak Prescott +5000 +6600 +2500 +2500 N/A +1600 +1200 +800 +1400 +2000 +2000 +1200 +1800 +1600 N/A N/A +10000 N/A N/A N/A
Le'Veon Bell +6600 +6600 N/A +2500 +1600 +6600 +3500 +4000 N/A +10000 +6600 +5000 +3300 +3300 +3300 +5000 +8000 +2500 +4000 +5000
Trevor Siemian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +20000 N/A N/A N/A
Matt Stafford N/A N/A N/A +3300 +1600 +900 +1400 +1600 +1600 +5000 +1600 +5000 +4000 +10000 +10000 N/A +10000 +5000 +10000 +10000
David Johnson N/A N/A N/A +4000 N/A +4000 +3500 +3300 +5000 N/A +2500 +2000 +1000 +1600 +2200 +5000 +7500 +3300 +15000 +15000
Drew Brees N/A N/A N/A +5000 N/A +5000 +6600 +4000 +3300 +5000 +2000 +2500 +3300 +3300 +6600 +2542 +3500 +2500 +3000 +3000
Andrew Luck N/A N/A N/A +6600 N/A +5000 +5500 +10000 +5000 +5000 +2000 +2500 +1200 +4000 +2500 +1253 +1400 +800 +1400 +1400
Tyrann Mathieu N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +25000 N/A N/A N/A
Khalil Mack N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +5000 +2500 +4000 N/A +8000 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +15000 +5000 +15000 +15000
Von Miller N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +6600 +6600 N/A +5000 +5000 +5000 +3300 +2500 +2000 +12500 +20000 +4000 +20000 +15000
Antonio Brown N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +10000 +8000 +5000 N/A +20000 +6600 +5000 +5000 +3300 +3300 N/A +5000 +5000 +10000 +10000
LeSean McCoy N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +10000 +8000 +6600 N/A +10000 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +30000 +10000 +30000 +30000
Marcus Mariota N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +8000 +10000 N/A N/A +10000 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +10000 +5000 +12500 +12500
Demarco Murray N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +8000 +10000 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +25000 N/A +25000 +25000
Ben Roethlisberger N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +10000 +10000 +6600 +3300 +8000 N/A N/A N/A N/A +500 +703 +750 +700 +650 +700
Mark Sanchez N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +50000 +10000 +15000 +20000
Amari Cooper N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +30000 +10000 +20000 +20000
Odell Beckham N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +10000 N/A N/A N/A +10000 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +15000 +6600 +12500 +10000
Thomas Rawls N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +30000 N/A +25000 +50000
Jay Cutler N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +12500 +6600 +12500 +15000
Robert Griffin III N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +28000 N/A +25000 +25000
Colin Kaepernick N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +30000 N/A +25000 +25000
Sam Bradford N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +10000 +3300 +1600 +1200 N/A +22500 N/A +15000 +20000
Tyrod Taylor N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +20000 N/A +12500 +12500
Brandon Marshall N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +22500 N/A N/A N/A
Keenan Allen N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +22500 N/A N/A N/A
Lamar Miller N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +22500 N/A N/A N/A
Teddy Bridgewater N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +6600 +10000 +15000
Andy Dalton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +8000 N/A N/A N/A +10000 N/A N/A +10000 +10000 +15000 +6500 +6000 +3300 +5000 +2000
Jordy Nelson N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +25000 N/A +25000 +25000
Jordan Reed N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +25000 N/A N/A N/A
Adrian Peterson N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +2006 +3500 +1200 +4000 +6000
Jameis Winston N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +15000 +15000 N/A +9000 +5000 +12500 +9000
Cam Newton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +6600 +8000 +3300 +3300 +6600 +10000 +4000 +554 +800 +500 +700 +300
Tony Romo N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +30000 +12500 +2000 +6000 +7500
Jonathan Stewart N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +25000 N/A +25000 +25000
Jamaal Charles N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +13000 +5000 +15000 +15000
JJ Watt N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +5000 +8000 +2500 +6000 +10000
Carson Wentz N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +10000 +6600 +10000 +3300 N/A +40000 N/A +40000 +40000
Alex Smith N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +15000 +10000 +15000 +15000
Brock Osweiler N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +15000 +10000 +10000 +12500
Eddie Lacy N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +15000 +5000 +9000 +9000
Joe Flacco N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +15000 +5000 +12500 +8000
Julio Jones N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +5000 +5000 +5000 +3300 +5000 +5000 +5000 +2800 +2500 +2000 +8500 +11000 +3300 +10000 +10000
Jared Goff N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +40000 N/A +30000 +40000
DeAndre Hopkins N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +20000 +6600 +17500 +15000
Russell Wilson N/A N/A N/A +2500 +3300 +550 +1000 +1400 +350 +1450 +2000 +2500 +2000 +800 +700 +501 +1075 +900 +700 +1600
Kirk Cousins N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +2500 +2500 +3300 +10000 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +10000 +11500 +3300 +15000 +15000
Alshon Jeffery N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +20000 N/A +15000 +15000
Philip Rivers N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +8000 N/A N/A N/A +10000 +2000 +5000 +2500 +6600 +15000 N/A +10000 +3300 +12500 +12500
Eli Manning N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +6600 N/A +10000 +6600 +10000 +6600 +10000 +6600 +3300 +10000 +2439 +3500 +2500 +2500 +6000
TY Hilton N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +32500 N/A +25000 +25000
Golden Tate N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +50000 N/A +50000 +50000
Jeremy Maclin N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +30000 N/A +30000 +30000
Jordan Matthews N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +30000 N/A N/A N/A
Ryan Fitzpatrick N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +27500 N/A +30000 +30000
Laquon Treadwell N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +30000 N/A N/A N/A
Josh Norman N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +25000 N/A N/A N/A
Rob Gronkowski N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +10000 +5000 +5000 +6600 N/A N/A +6000 +7500 +2500 +7500 +7500
Emmanuel Sanders N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +40000 N/A +40000 +40000
Carson Palmer N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +10000 N/A N/A +10000 +3300 +10000 +1303 +1700 +1000 +1400 +1600
Luke Kuechly N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +15000 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +25000 +5000 +40000 +25000
A.J. Green N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +10000 N/A +10000 +10000 +10000 +6600 N/A +25000 +8000 +25000 +25000
Dez Bryant N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +20000 +6600 +20000 +15000
Travis Kelce N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +50000 N/A N/A N/A
Kelvin Benjamin N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +50000 N/A N/A N/A
Brandin Cooks N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +50000 N/A N/A N/A
Blaine Gabbert N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +50000 N/A N/A N/A
Latavius Murray N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +50000 N/A N/A N/A
Derrick Henry N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +175000 N/A N/A N/A
Clay Matthews N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +50000 N/A +50000 +40000
TJ Yeldon N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +50000 N/A +50000 +50000
Melvin Gordon N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +50000 N/A +50000 +50000
Demaryius Thomas N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +50000 N/A +25000 +25000
Mark Ingram N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +50000 N/A +50000 +50000
Dion Lewis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +50000 N/A N/A N/A
Paxton Lynch N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +50000 N/A N/A N/A
Todd Gurley N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +3415 +4800 +3300 +4000 +4000
Jimmy Garoppolo N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +30000 N/A N/A N/A
Allen Robinson N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +40000 +8000 +25000 +15000
Richard Sherman N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +40000 N/A +40000 +25000
Greg Olsen N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +30000 N/A N/A N/A
Johnny Manziel N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +900000 N/A +500000 +500000
Larry Fitzgerald N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +30000 N/A +30000 +25000
Jimmy Graham N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +30000 N/A +30000 +25000
Devonta Freeman N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +30000 +5000 +30000 +30000
Doug Martin N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +30000 +5000 +30000 +30000
Doug Baldwin N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +40000 N/A +40000 +30000
Blake Bortles N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +7500 +7500 +3300 +7500 +7500
Julian Edelman N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +40000 N/A +40000 +40000
Ndamukong Suh N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +40000 N/A +40000 +35000
Ryan Tannehill N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +20000 N/A +15000 +40000

The section below was originally published on April 27th:

Although these odds will likely change dramatically by the time the regular season rolls around, there are several players that appear to be offering value. One of my personal favorites is Russell Wilson, who’s currently available at 16/1.

The fifth-year veteran has improved steadily every year and posted an incredible stat line last season with over 4,000 passing yards and a 34:8 touchdown to interception ratio. Wilson also had the league’s third-highest completion percentage (68.1%) and the third most rushing yards (553) among quarterbacks.

Only twice in the history of the league has the MVP been awarded to a player whose team did not make the playoffs — the 1967 Baltimore Colts (Johnny Unitas) and the 1973 Buffalo Bills (OJ Simpson). The Seahawks (+435) are the favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, which makes Wilson a safe bet to at least be in the conversation.

Some long shots offering potential values include: David Johnson (150/1), Tony Romo (75/1), Derek Carr (75/1) and Adrian Peterson (60/1).

Which players do you think are offering value? Do you think that Cam Newton will be able repeat? Please leave your thoughts in the comment section below.

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David Solar

David Solar has been the Content Manager at Sports Insights for over four years. He specializes in sports betting analytics and has created several popular data-driven betting systems. He can be reached directly at david@sportsinsights.com or on twitter at @TheDavidSolar.

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