2014 World Cup Group Stage: Odds to Win

The World Cup is approaching the last group stage games and there have been plenty of surprises including England, Italy, and Spain being eliminated, and Costa Rica dominating a tough Group D.

The United States — who were placed in the so called “Group of Death” — were listed at +900 to win the group behind both Germany (-175) and Portugal (+270). Interestingly, the USA was listed ahead of Ghana despite being an underdog in their June 16th matchup which the US won 2-1.

The tables below compare the odds to win each group from before the World Cup to now at Sportsbook.com:

Updated 6/26/14 at 9:30 am

Group A

Country Sportsbook.com (Current) Sportsbook.com (before World Cup)
Brazil Won group -400
Mexico Finished 2nd +600
Croatia Eliminated +800
Cameroon Eliminated +2500

Group B

Country Sportsbook.com (Current) Sportsbook.com (before World Cup)
Netherlands Won group +225
Chile Finished 2nd +450
Spain Eliminated -140
Australia Eliminated +3000

Group C

Country Sportsbook.com (Current) Sportsbook.com (before World Cup)
Colombia Won group -140
Greece Finished 2nd +800
Ivory Coast Eliminated +350
Japan Eliminated +450

Group D

Country Sportsbook.com (Current) Sportsbook.com (before World Cup)
Costa Rica Won group +3000
Uruguay Finished 2nd +160
Italy Eliminated +160
England Eliminated +200

Group E

Country Sportsbook.com (Current) Sportsbook.com (before World Cup)
France Won group -145
Switzerland Finished 2nd +280
Ecuador Eliminated +400
Honduras Eliminated +2000

Group F

Country Sportsbook.com (Current) Sportsbook.com (before World Cup)
Argentina Won group -550
Nigeria Finished 2nd +900
Iran Eliminated +3000
Bosnia and Herzegovina Eliminated +650

Group G

Country Sportsbook.com (Current) Sportsbook.com (before World Cup)
Germany Won group -175
USA Finished 2nd +900
Portugal Eliminated +270
Ghana Eliminated +1000

Group H

Country Sportsbook.com (Current) Sportsbook.com (before World Cup)
Belgium -5000 -175
Algeria +2000 +3000
Russia Cannot win group +200
Korea Republic Cannot win group +900

FiveThirtyEight.com recently published a great interactive tool calculating the odds of each country’s performance and has been updating their ratings after each game. Using their World Cup forecasting model (which uses ESPN’s Soccer Power Index), we applied the Kelly Criterion to compare their percentages on each team advancing from the group to the actual odds in the betting market. We then found 5 countries presenting >5% line value to win their group prior to the World Cup beginning on June 12:

Brazil -400 (Sportsbook.com)

Chile +600 (CRIS)

Costa Rica +4150 (CRIS)

Ecuador +400 (Sportsbook.com)

Germany -150 (CRIS)

Looking for more information about World Cup betting? We’ve also posted odds on each team to advance from their group2014 World Cup Odds and the United States World Cup Betting Odds. You can also check out our free World Cup odds page featuring betting percentages and real-time lines for every game of the tournament.

Have any questions? Please don’t hesitate to call us at 877-838-2853, e-mail us at help@sportsinsights.com, or utilize our live chat to speak directly with a customer service representative.

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David Solar

David Solar is the Content Manager at Sports Insights. He specializes in sports betting analytics and creating data-driven betting systems. He can be reached directly at david@sportsinsights.com or on twitter at @TheDavidSolar.

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