2014 World Cup Group Stage: Odds to Win

2014 World Cup Group Stage: Odds to Win

The World Cup is approaching the last group stage games and there have been plenty of surprises including England, Italy, and Spain being eliminated, and Costa Rica dominating a tough Group D.

The United States — who were placed in the so called “Group of Death” — were listed at +900 to win the group behind both Germany (-175) and Portugal (+270). Interestingly, the USA was listed ahead of Ghana despite being an underdog in their June 16th matchup which the US won 2-1.

The tables below compare the odds to win each group from before the World Cup to now at Sportsbook.com:

Updated 6/26/14 at 9:30 am

Group A

CountrySportsbook.com (Current)Sportsbook.com (before World Cup)
BrazilWon group-400
MexicoFinished 2nd+600

Group B

CountrySportsbook.com (Current)Sportsbook.com (before World Cup)
NetherlandsWon group+225
ChileFinished 2nd+450

Group C

CountrySportsbook.com (Current)Sportsbook.com (before World Cup)
ColombiaWon group-140
GreeceFinished 2nd+800
Ivory CoastEliminated+350

Group D

CountrySportsbook.com (Current)Sportsbook.com (before World Cup)
Costa RicaWon group+3000
UruguayFinished 2nd+160

Group E

CountrySportsbook.com (Current)Sportsbook.com (before World Cup)
FranceWon group-145
SwitzerlandFinished 2nd+280

Group F

CountrySportsbook.com (Current)Sportsbook.com (before World Cup)
ArgentinaWon group-550
NigeriaFinished 2nd+900
Bosnia and HerzegovinaEliminated+650

Group G

CountrySportsbook.com (Current)Sportsbook.com (before World Cup)
GermanyWon group-175
USAFinished 2nd+900

Group H

CountrySportsbook.com (Current)Sportsbook.com (before World Cup)
RussiaCannot win group+200
Korea RepublicCannot win group+900

FiveThirtyEight.com recently published a great interactive tool calculating the odds of each country’s performance and has been updating their ratings after each game. Using their World Cup forecasting model (which uses ESPN’s Soccer Power Index), we applied the Kelly Criterion to compare their percentages on each team advancing from the group to the actual odds in the betting market. We then found 5 countries presenting >5% line value to win their group prior to the World Cup beginning on June 12:

Brazil -400 (Sportsbook.com)

Chile +600 (CRIS)

Costa Rica +4150 (CRIS)

Ecuador +400 (Sportsbook.com)

Germany -150 (CRIS)

Looking for more information about World Cup betting? We’ve also posted odds on each team to advance from their group2014 World Cup Odds and the United States World Cup Betting Odds. You can also check out our free World Cup odds page featuring betting percentages and real-time lines for every game of the tournament.

Have any questions? Please don’t hesitate to call us at 877-838-2853, e-mail us at help@sportsinsights.com, or utilize our live chat to speak directly with a customer service representative.

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David Solar

David was the Content Manager at Sports Insights. He has since moved on to greener pastures.

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