The 2014 World Cup in Brazil has already been one to remember and we’re just entering the quarterfinal matches. Just four years ago, an all-European final saw Spain defeat the Netherlands 1-0 after Andres Iniesta scored in the 116th minute in extra time. However, it’s South American powerhouses Brazil (+300) and Argentina (+400) that remain atop the favorites to win it this year, while Spain has already been eliminated from the tournament.
With the semifinals set, the biggest odds movers to win the World Cup has clearly been Netherlands, moving from +4100 to +370. Other countries supremely under-performed and were eliminated early, including Spain, England, and Italy.
The following table shows current 2014 World Cup odds from offshore sportsbook 5Dimes and compares them to the odds back in December and just prior to the tournament.
Updated 7/10/14 at 11:00 am ET
|Country||7/10/14 (Current)||6/11/14 (Pre-World Cup)||12/15/13 (Open)|
|Bosnia & Herzegovina||N/A||+21000||+22500|
Before the tourney started, there were some interesting odds differences for some countries depending on the sportsbook. Colombia was listed at +2000 at Sportsbook but +4000 at 5Dimes. They saw their odds adjusted at Sportsbook back in December when star forward Radamel Falcao was expected to miss the entire tournament. However, 5Dimes left Colombia’s odds fairly high and ended up assessing his injury correctly, as Falcao was left off the 23-man squad. Now that Colombia is rolling and through to the quarterfinals against Brazil, Colombia is down to just +1350 to win it all.
Longshots are rare to make the World Cup Finals, let alone win the whole thing. In 2002, Germany was a pre-tournament +2000 underdog to win it but ultimately lost to Brazil in the final game. Below shows the results and odds for each World Cup winner and runner-up since ’86:
|2010||Spain +400||Netherlands +1000|
|2006||Italy +1000||France +1400|
|2002||Brazil +700||Germany +2000|
|1998||France +700||Brazil +333|
|1994||Brazil +333||Italy +600|
|1990||West Germany +700||Argentina +1400|
|1986||Argentina +400||West Germany +1400|
This year it’s not a huge surprise that two of the perennial favorites, Germany (15% of bets) and Brazil (16% of bets), have attracted the most future bets to win it all but the public has got behind USA as well. Though the Americans are in arguably the toughest group (Germany, Portugal, Ghana), they’re getting nearly 1 in every 8 future bets to win the World Cup, which is more than traditional powerhouses Argentina, Spain, France, and Italy.
Even more appalling is the heavy betting activity on team USA in Las Vegas. Former oddsmaker at Caesers Todd Fuhrman tweeted these Vegas odds on USA on May 7:
All Sportsbook Insider customers can add the 2014 World Cup to your Live Odds page from the available sports found in the Settings. We currently show all the opening and current odds, full line histories, and betting percentages around the market for each game. Check out the Round of 16 odds and which teams to look for to advance.
We always recommend that you shop for the best line and we’ll continue to monitor and update these futures through the entire 2014 World Cup. Feel free to leave your predictions below and check back in to see all the latest odds and betting percentages.
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