We frequently examine and analyze various proposition bets from offshore sportsbooks, but it’s not every day that we see something truly unique. However, earlier this week BetOnline posted a prop regarding the total points scored for all 32 NFL teams for the upcoming season. For each team there are three options, all with plus money. The actual point totals vary for each team, but the moneylines are the same for the over (+175), a fifty point middle range (+160), and the under (+175).
According to oddsmakers, the top scoring teams are expected to be (in order): Denver, New England and New Orleans followed by a three-team tie between Philadelphia, Seattle and San Francisco. At the other end of the spectrum Oakland, Jacksonville and Cleveland are expected to be the three worst offenses in football followed by a tie between Tampa Bay and the New York Jets.
The table below displays the 2014-15 point totals for each team along with their scoring output from the past season. It will be interesting to see if any additional sportsbooks post this prop bet, but if they do rest assured that we will be quick to add them.
|Team||Over (+175)||Range (+160)||Under (+175)||2013-14 Points|
|Denver Broncos||495.5||446 to 495||445.5||606|
|New England Patriots||484.5||435 to 484||434.5||444|
|New Orleans Saints||464.5||415 to 464||414.5||414|
|Philadelphia Eagles||449.5||400 to 449||399.5||442|
|Seattle Seahawks||449.5||400 to 449||399.5||417|
|San Francisco 49ers||449.5||400 to 449||399.5||406|
|Green Bay Packers||445.5||396 to 445||395.5||417|
|Indianapolis Colts||430.5||381 to 430||380.5||391|
|Dallas Cowboys||424.5||375 to 424||374.5||439|
|Chicago Bears||424.5||375 to 424||374.5||445|
|Detroit Lions||414.5||365 to 414||364.5||395|
|Cincinnati Bengals||409.5||360 to 409||359.5||430|
|Atlanta Falcons||409.5||360 to 409||359.5||353|
|Kansas City Chiefs||404.5||355 to 404||354.5||430|
|Baltimore Ravens||395.5||346 to 395||345.5||320|
|Pittsburgh Steelers||389.5||340 to 389||339.5||379|
|Minnesota Vikings||389.5||340 to 389||339.5||391|
|San Diego Chargers||389.5||340 to 389||339.5||396|
|Arizona Cardinals||384.5||335 to 384||334.5||379|
|Washington Redskins||384.5||335 to 384||334.5||334|
|Carolina Panthers||384.5||335 to 384||334.5||366|
|New York Giants||379.5||330 to 379||329.5||294|
|Miami Dolphins||374.5||325 to 374||324.5||317|
|Tennessee Titans||369.5||320 to 369||319.5||362|
|St. Louis Rams||369.5||320 to 369||319.5||348|
|Houston Texans||364.5||315 to 364||314.5||276|
|Buffalo Bills||364.5||315 to 364||314.5||339|
|New York Jets||354.5||305 to 354||304.5||290|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||354.5||305 to 304.5||304.5||288|
|Cleveland Browns||335.5||286 to 335||285.5||308|
|Jacksonville Jaguars||324.5||275 to 324||274.5||247|
|Oakland Raiders||314.5||265 to 314||264.5||322|
It’s interesting to see that bettors can get +175 on over 495.5 points for the Denver Broncos considering the team scored 606 points last season — a 110.5 point difference. Although they lost WR Eric Decker and RB Knowshon Moreno over the off-season, they added former Steelers receiver Emmanuel Sanders and will hand the reigns over to 2013 2nd-round pick Montee Ball in the backfield. It will be interesting to see if the Broncos offense regresses to the extent that oddsmakers are projecting.
Bettors should also be familiar with the implied betting odds as a +175 moneyline correlates to an implied probability of 36.36% and +160 equates to an implied probability of 38.46%. If you add those three percentages together (38.46 + 36.36 + 36.36) you get 111.18. That works out to a fairly reasonable 11-cent juice which is definitely less than many prop bets.
Do you agree that Denver will once again have the league’s top offense? Are there any bets here that you think are offering value? Please leave any opinions in the comment section below.