If you’re familiar with sports betting, you understand that there are typically three different bet types available to most bettors: moneylines, spreads and totals (also known as the over/under). Ultimately the goal of a sportsbook isn’t necessarily to predict the final margin of victory but rather to have 50% of the money on each side so they can simply sit back and collect the vig (the commission charged by the bookmaker). That way the sportsbook has no exposure and can limit their risk .
Most sportsbooks have standard 20-cent lines, which is represented by the (-110) you’ll frequently see next to the spread. Simply put, this means that for every $100 won, you would have to risk $110. You may be asking yourself, what does that mean for bettors? Ultimately it means that most bettors have to win 52.38% of their spread bets in order to break even. For bettors with access to dime lines/reduced juice (-105) sportsbooks, the breakeven point would be at 51.22%.
A large majority of sportsbooks will still charge the standard 20-cent juice on moneyline wagers, which means if you wanted to bet the favorite at -150, the price on the underdog would typically be +130. But how can moneyline bettors determine their necessary winning percentage to break even? After all you could end up taking one team at +100, one at +150, and one at +200. This betting odds converter can be used to quickly convert a moneyline into an implied probability.
In sports betting markets implied probability is simply the conversion of traditional odds into a percentage, however, it does not account for the juice. That means that if you placed a bet on Team A +300, it doesn’t necessarily mean they should win 25% of the time. Instead, it means that in order to break even they would need to win 25% of the time.
For new sports bettors, we would highly encourage you to visit our Sports Betting Academy where you will find a number of valuable articles where you can learn how to bet on sports. You can also test drive our software with a 4-day trial of our Sportsbook Insider Pro subscription.
Kenny01/29/2017 at 1:37 pm
How would one find the implied probability of a point spread?
Ross02/07/2017 at 1:12 pm
This is a list from an online source that lists approximate pointspreads in football with the moneyline. Once you know the money line. you can calculate the implied probability.
This chart was mentioned in the context of a football discussion.
Point Spread Money Line