Which NFL Win Totals Are Offering Value at South Point?
On Sunday morning, the South Point Race and Sportsbook released their 2017 NFL Win Totals for all 32 teams. This came just days after CG Technology released point spreads for every game between Weeks 1 and 16, which Bet Labs Sports, our sister website that analyzes historical data to create winning betting systems, leveraged to develop their own win total valuations.
With two sets of numbers to compare, I wanted to determine which win totals are offering value for the upcoming season. By simply subtracting the South Point win total from our valuations, I was able to find four win totals that are offering substantial value this season.
The table below compares the South Point win totals with our own projections. Positive numbers reflect a lean towards the over, while negative numbers reflect a lean towards the under.
| Team | 2016 Win Total | 2016 Wins | O/U | 2017 Projected Wins | 2017 Win Total | Difference | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | 9.5 | 7 | Under | 8.4 | 7.5 | 0.9 | Over |
| Atlanta Falcons | 7.5 | 11 | Over | 9.6 | 10 (u-120) | -0.4 | Under |
| Baltimore Ravens | 8.5 | 8 | Under | 8.4 | 9.5 (u-125) | -1.1 | Under |
| Buffalo Bills | 8 | 7 | Under | 7 | 6 | 1 | Over |
| Carolina Panthers | 10.5 | 6 | Under | 8.1 | 9 (o-120) | -0.9 | Under |
| Chicago Bears | 7.5 | 3 | Under | 5.8 | 5 | 0.8 | Over |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 9.5 | 6 | Under | 8 | 8.5 (o-120) | -0.5 | Under |
| Cleveland Browns | 4.5 | 1 | Under | 4.7 | 4 | 0.7 | Over |
| Dallas Cowboys | 9.5 | 13 | Over | 10.1 | 9.5 (o-120) | 0.6 | Over |
| Denver Broncos | 9 | 9 | Under | 8.3 | 8.5 (o-120) | -0.2 | Under |
| Detroit Lions | 7 | 9 | Over | 7.8 | 8 | -0.2 | Under |
| Green Bay Packers | 10.5 | 10 | Under | 10.1 | 10 (u-120) | 0.1 | Over |
| Houston Texans | 8.5 | 9 | Over | 8.3 | 8.5 (o-120) | -0.2 | Under |
| Indianapolis Colts | 9.5 | 8 | Under | 8.5 | 9 (u-115) | -0.5 | Under |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 7.5 | 3 | Under | 7 | 5.5 (o-120) | 1.5 | Over |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 9.5 | 12 | Over | 8.5 | 9 (o-120) | -0.5 | Under |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 7 | 5 | Under | 6.8 | 7.5 | -0.7 | Under |
| Los Angeles Rams | 7.5 | 4 | Under | 5.7 | 5.5 (o-120) | 0.2 | Over |
| Miami Dolphins | 7 | 10 | Over | 7.8 | 7.5 | 0.3 | Over |
| Minnesota Vikings | 9.5 | 8 | Under | 8.4 | 8.5 | -0.1 | Under |
| New England Patriots | 10.5 | 14 | Over | 11.3 | 11 (o-120) | 0.3 | Over |
| New Orleans Saints | 7 | 7 | Under | 7.7 | 8.5 (u-120) | -0.8 | Under |
| New York Giants | 8 | 11 | Over | 8.4 | 9 (o-115) | -0.6 | Under |
| New York Jets | 8 | 5 | Under | 5.4 | 5.5 (o-120) | -0.1 | Under |
| Oakland Raiders | 8.5 | 12 | Over | 8.9 | 9.5 (o-120) | -0.6 | Under |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 7 | 7 | Under | 7.7 | 8.5 | -0.8 | Under |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 10.5 | 11 | Over | 10.1 | 10.5 (o-120) | -0.4 | Under |
| San Francisco 49ers | 5.5 | 2 | Under | 5.1 | 4.5 | 0.6 | Over |
| Seattle Seahawks | 10.5 | 10 | Under | 10.4 | 10.5 | -0.1 | Under |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 7.5 | 9 | Over | 7.9 | 8 | -0.1 | Under |
| Tennessee Titans | 5.5 | 9 | Over | 8.4 | 9.5 (u-120) | -1.1 | Under |
| Washington Redskins | 7.5 | 8 | Over | 7.5 | 7.5 (o-120) | 0 | Push |
Based on our early analysis, there are four teams offering value at South Point. These numbers may change as free agency continues and public money begins to enter the marketplace, so make sure to visit our blog throughout the offseason for the latest analysis.
- Jacksonville Jaguars: Over 5.5
- Tennessee Titans: Under 9.5
- Baltimore Ravens: Under 9.5
- Buffalo Bills: Over 6
After entering the off-season with optimistic expectations for the Tennessee Titans, I was immediately deterred when I saw their win total posted at 9.5, which our numbers indicate is a full win too high. The spreads at CG Technology have the Titans favored in eight of fifteen games, although they’ll likely be favored in their Week 17 matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Our numbers project the Titans for 8.4 wins, which makes them an excellent value at Under 9.5.
The Jacksonville Jaguars, who have the second easiest strength of schedule, look like they’re being highly undervalued by oddsmakers. This was a trendy “over” team before last season, but they underachieved with just three wins. It’s an annual tradition for public bettors to hammer the Jags under, but there’s plenty of talent on this roster. Our numbers project the Jags for seven wins, which makes Over 5.5 our top overall value. It’s also worth noting that Jacksonville finished with the league’s highest Pythagorean plus/minus, which indicates they were substantially better than last season’s record may indicate.
Another intriguing team is the Buffalo Bills, who are actually favored in seven of fifteen games at CG Technology. Their Pythagorean wins indicate they were also better than their final record indicates, which makes them an intriguing buy-low team. Their win total at South Point opened at six, but our projections have them at seven wins. Buffalo has no shortage of explosive offensive firepower and, although their defense lost several key players, it will be interesting to see how they look under new head coach Sean McDermott.
The 2017 NFL season doesn’t start for more than four months, but several offshore sportsbooks have already posted odds for every Week 1 matchup. Make sure to view these odds along with the latest public betting trends by visiting our free NFL odds page.
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