Which NFL Win Totals Are Offering Value at South Point?

Which NFL Win Totals Are Offering Value at South Point?

On Sunday morning, the South Point Race and Sportsbook released their 2017 NFL Win Totals for all 32 teams. This came just days after CG Technology released point spreads for every game between Weeks 1 and 16, which Bet Labs Sports, our sister website that analyzes historical data to create winning betting systems, leveraged to develop their own win total valuations.

With two sets of numbers to compare, I wanted to determine which win totals are offering value for the upcoming season. By simply subtracting the South Point win total from our valuations, I was able to find four win totals that are offering substantial value this season.

The table below compares the South Point win totals with our own projections. Positive numbers reflect a lean towards the over, while negative numbers reflect a lean towards the under.

Team2016 Win Total2016 WinsO/U2017 Projected Wins2017 Win TotalDifferenceLean
Arizona Cardinals9.57Under8.47.50.9Over
Atlanta Falcons7.511Over9.610 (u-120)-0.4Under
Baltimore Ravens8.58Under8.49.5 (u-125)-1.1Under
Buffalo Bills87Under761Over
Carolina Panthers10.56Under8.19 (o-120)-0.9Under
Chicago Bears7.53Under5.850.8Over
Cincinnati Bengals9.56Under88.5 (o-120)-0.5Under
Cleveland Browns4.51Under4.740.7Over
Dallas Cowboys9.513Over10.19.5 (o-120)0.6Over
Denver Broncos99Under8.38.5 (o-120)-0.2Under
Detroit Lions79Over7.88-0.2Under
Green Bay Packers10.510Under10.110 (u-120)0.1Over
Houston Texans8.59Over8.38.5 (o-120)-0.2Under
Indianapolis Colts9.58Under8.59 (u-115)-0.5Under
Jacksonville Jaguars7.53Under75.5 (o-120)1.5Over
Kansas City Chiefs9.512Over8.59 (o-120)-0.5Under
Los Angeles Chargers75Under6.87.5-0.7Under
Los Angeles Rams7.54Under5.75.5 (o-120)0.2Over
Miami Dolphins710Over7.87.50.3Over
Minnesota Vikings9.58Under8.48.5-0.1Under
New England Patriots10.514Over11.311 (o-120)0.3Over
New Orleans Saints77Under7.78.5 (u-120)-0.8Under
New York Giants811Over8.49 (o-115)-0.6Under
New York Jets85Under5.45.5 (o-120)-0.1Under
Oakland Raiders8.512Over8.99.5 (o-120)-0.6Under
Philadelphia Eagles77Under7.78.5-0.8Under
Pittsburgh Steelers10.511Over10.110.5 (o-120)-0.4Under
San Francisco 49ers5.52Under5.14.50.6Over
Seattle Seahawks10.510Under10.410.5-0.1Under
Tampa Bay Buccaneers7.59Over7.98-0.1Under
Tennessee Titans5.59Over8.49.5 (u-120)-1.1Under
Washington Redskins7.58Over7.57.5 (o-120)0Push

Based on our early analysis, there are four teams offering value at South Point. These numbers may change as free agency continues and public money begins to enter the marketplace, so make sure to visit our blog throughout the offseason for the latest analysis.

  • Jacksonville Jaguars: Over 5.5
  • Tennessee Titans: Under 9.5
  • Baltimore Ravens: Under 9.5
  • Buffalo Bills: Over 6

After entering the off-season with optimistic expectations for the Tennessee Titans, I was immediately deterred when I saw their win total posted at 9.5, which our numbers indicate is a full win too high. The spreads at CG Technology have the Titans favored in eight of fifteen games, although they’ll likely be favored in their Week 17 matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Our numbers project the Titans for 8.4 wins, which makes them an excellent value at Under 9.5.

The Jacksonville Jaguars, who have the second easiest strength of schedule, look like they’re being highly undervalued by oddsmakers. This was a trendy “over” team before last season, but they underachieved with just three wins. It’s an annual tradition for public bettors to hammer the Jags under, but there’s plenty of talent on this roster. Our numbers project the Jags for seven wins, which makes Over 5.5 our top overall value. It’s also worth noting that Jacksonville finished with the league’s highest Pythagorean plus/minus, which indicates they were substantially better than last season’s record may indicate.

Another intriguing team is the Buffalo Bills, who are actually favored in seven of fifteen games at CG Technology. Their Pythagorean wins indicate they were also better than their final record indicates, which makes them an intriguing buy-low team. Their win total at South Point opened at six, but our projections have them at seven wins. Buffalo has no shortage of explosive offensive firepower and, although their defense lost several key players, it will be interesting to see how they look under new head coach Sean McDermott.

The 2017 NFL season doesn’t start for more than four months, but several offshore sportsbooks have already posted odds for every Week 1 matchup. Make sure to view these odds along with the latest public betting trends by visiting our free NFL odds page.

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David Solar

David was the Content Manager at Sports Insights. He has since moved on to greener pastures.

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