Earlier today, South Point Casino in Las Vegas released their NFL win total over/unders for the upcoming season. They are the first book to do so this year so it will be interesting to see how bettors react.
Other Vegas books and offshore books are sure to release their own totals in the following weeks which will allow us to see the early trends and changes around the market. Be sure to check back over the summer for updates.
|Team||Westgate (5/14)||South Point (4/30)|
|Arizona Cardinals||8 (o-130)||7.5|
|Atalanta Falcons||9.5||10 (u-120)|
|Baltimore Ravens||9 (u-130)||9.5 (u-125)|
|Buffalo Bills||6.5 (o-150)||6|
|Carolina Panthers||9 (o-120)||9 (o-120)|
|Chicago Bears||5.5 (u-120)||5|
|Cincinnati Bengals||8.5||8.5 (o-120)|
|Dallas Cowboys||9.5 (o-130)||9.5 (o-120)|
|Denver Broncos||8||8.5 (o-120)|
|Green Bay Packers||10.5 (u-130)||10 (u-120)|
|Houston Texans||8 (o-120)||8.5 (o-120)|
|Indianapolis Colts||8.5 (u-140)||9 (u-115)|
|Jacksonville Jaguars||6.5 (o-150)||5.5 (o-120)|
|Kansas City Chiefs||9||9 (o-120)|
|Los Angeles Chargers||7.5||7.5|
|Los Angeles Rams||6 (u-130)||5.5 (o-120)|
|Miami Dolphins||7 (o-120)||7.5|
|Minnesota Vikings||8.5 (u-140)||8.5|
|New England Patriots||12.5 (u-120)||11 (o-120)|
|New Orleans Saints||8||8.5 (u-120)|
|New York Giants||8.5||9 (o-115)|
|New York Jets||5||5.5 (o-120)|
|Oakland Raiders||9.5||9.5 (o-120)|
|Philadelphia Eagles||8 (o-120)||8.5|
|Pittsburgh Steelers||10.5 (o-130)||10.5 (o-120)|
|San Francisco 49ers||5 (u-120)||4.5|
|Seattle Seahawks||10.5 (o-130)||10.5|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||8 (u-140)||8|
|Tennessee Titans||8.5 (o-130)||9.5 (u-120)|
|Washington Redskins||7.5||7.5 (o-120)|
May 14th Update
Westgate just released win totals of their own and there are a handful of differences from the South Point numbers of two weeks ago. As expected, the Patriots’ number has gone up….by a lot, though. Their total has risen from 11 to 12.5. That will surely start to convince some bettors to take the under. The Jaguars and Titans are the only other teams to have their total change by at least a full win: the Jaguars trending up, with the Titans trending down. Numerous other teams have moved by one half.
The following was written on April 30th
It should come as no surprise that the reigning Super Bowl champs have the highest win total at 11. The Patriots have added a handful of impact players this offseason and will bring back the large majority of their key players from last year’s roster. They’re favored in every game this season and are the Super Bowl front-runner at the Westgate by a large margin. Expect a ton of bettors to take the over on this total.
Joining the Patriots with a double digit total are the Steelers, Seahawks, Falcons, and Packers. With the exception of the Falcons, these teams are generally very publicly bet teams so I would expect to see most bets on the over. However, with the Falcons reaching the Super Bowl this past season, bettors may be inclined to take their over as well.
On the opposite end of the spectrum we have the Cleveland Browns with a total of 4. Not exactly a franchise you’d want to bring home to mom and dad. Last season, their opening win total at CG Technology was 4.5 with the juice on the over. Not only did they finish with one victory, they covered the spread just four times. Perhaps this year they can settle on a QB that starts all 16 games for them and win a handful of games in the process.
Week one odds and percentages are already posted so be sure to check out our free odds page to see how the lines change before the season starts.
If you have any thoughts or questions, feel free to reach out to the Sports Insights staff by utilizing our live chat feature, commenting below, or emailing us at firstname.lastname@example.org.