Which NFL Head Coach Will Be Fired First in the 2017-18 Season?

Not all props and futures deal with good news– 5Dimes recently released odds on which NFL head coach would be the first to be fired during the 2017-18 season. Sportsbooks may have different rules on this prop, but 5Dimes specifies that the head coach must coach in Week 1 for action. The rules also specify that “firing” includes dismissal, resignation and retirement. Here are the odds below, where Jets HC Todd Bowles is the favorite:

Coach July 3 Odds
Todd Bowles (NYJ) +500
Hue Jackson (CLE) +525
John Fox (CHI) +825
Jim Caldwell (DET) +1050
Chuck Pagano (IND) +1050
Bill O'Brien (HOU) +1200
Marvin Lewis (CIN) +1200
Sean Payton (NO) +1400
Adam Gase (MIA) +1500
Ben McAdoo (NYG) +1700
Mike McCarthy (GB) +2300
Mike Zimmer (MIN) +2300
Mike Mularkey (TEN) +2300
Dan Quinn (ATL) +2300
Sean McDermott (BUF) +2700
Doug Marrone (JAX) +2800
Doug Pederson (PHI) +2800
Jay Gruden (WAS) +2800
Ron Rivera (CAR) +3300
Sean McVay (LAR) +3300
Jason Garrett (DAL) +3300
Dirk Koetter (TB) +3300
Vance Joseph (DEN) +5500
Anthony Lynn (LAC) +5500
Bruce Arians (ARZ) +5500
Jack Del Rio (OAK) +5500
John Harbaugh (BAL) +5500
Mike Tomlin (PIT) +5500
Kyle Shanahan (SF) +7500
Andy Reid (KC) +8500
Pete Carroll (SEA) +15000
Bill Belichick (NE) +50000

Last season it was Jeff Fisher (LAC) to be the first head coach fired (which occurred on December 12th). Before the 2016-17 season he was listed at +700 to be the first coach gone while Jim Caldwell (DET) was the +370 favorite. Unfortunately for Jim Caldwell, he’s near the top of the list once again heading into the 2017-18 season at +1050 odds. There’s no surprise at the very top with Todd Bowles (NYJ) and Hue Jackson (CLE), as the Jets and Browns are expected to be two of the worst teams this year.

A couple head coaches worth keeping an eye on is Chuck Pagano (IND) and Marvin Lewis (CIN). Pagano is coming off back-to-back disappointing .500 seasons and missing the playoffs in a weak AFC South. The Colts do have a favorable schedule early on for 2017-18, but a slow start could just add fuel to the fire.

As for Lewis, he led the Bengals to five straight playoff appearances but has never won a playoff game, and Cincy went just 6-9-1 last season while missing the playoffs entirely. Cincinnati is expected to turn it around in 2017-18, but those expectations could ultimately mean the end for Lewis. If the Bengals struggle again, especially early in the season, Cincinnati may not wait to make a change.

Are there any head coaches you think are worth making a bet on? Leave your thoughts and comments in the space below.

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Dan McGuire

Dan McGuire is the Operations Manager and soccer specialist at Sports Insights. He can be reached at dan.mcguire@sportsinsights.com.

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