Week 4 2017: NFL Lines We’re Watching
If betting against the public was as easy as it was in Week 3, we’d all be rich…or maybe we’d all be poor because everyone would start betting against the public and we would be the public…
Anywho, here are FOUR games we are keeping our eyes on as we move closer to the weekend.
Saints vs. Dolphins (9:30 AM Sunday: In London)
Last weekend, the Ravens looked like the London Silly Nannies against the Jaguars. Let’s hope that this weekend’s London game is a bit better.
The Dolphins are looking to redeem themselves after a disgusting loss to the Jets, while the Saints are looking to build upon a nice division victory over the Panthers. According to Fantasy Labs, the Dolphins are one of just a handful of teams who have yet to hit their implied total in a game. Right now, they have an implied total of 23.75, but I don’t think many people expect them to hit the 24 mark.
Considering their dud against the friggin’ Jets, it’s not surprising that they’re getting only 1/3 of the spread bets. In fact, I’m surprised it’s not lower. The line has moved from -2 to -3 for the Saints, who could potentially put up a huge number. 20 points for the Jets is equivalent to like…60 points for the Saints.
If you like New Orleans, there are still some books that have the line at -2.5. If you expect some more whacky Sunday morning action across the pond and are looking to go contrarian, I’d wait it out and look to get +3.5 or potentially take them on the moneyline.
Rams @ Cowboys (1 PM Sunday)
Rams in Dallas to face the Cowboys…must be a pretty lopsided game, huh? Well indeed it is, but probably not on the team you’d expect.
We’ve tracked close to 3,000 bets on this game—most on the Sunday slate—and almost 70% of them have been on the Rams. These aren’t $5 bets either, as 3/4 of the cash is backing Goff’s Groovy Groupies. As a result, the line has already moved 1.5 points towards LA.
Do I expect there to be buyback? Yes, yes I do. As we approach the weekend, I’d bet my bottom dollar that these percentages begin to even out and the line creeps back towards Dallas. If you like the Cowpokes, now might be the time to pull trig…perhaps buy a half point to get to -5.5 if that’s something you don’t mind doing. You’ve already lost out on a lot of value if you like the Rams, but I expect you to have some chances to get them at +7 later in the week.
Bengals @ Browns (1 PM Sunday)
Raiders @ Broncos (4:25 PM Sunday)
This game is looking like it may be the best game of the week. With the Chiefs off to a perfect start and a seven point favorite this week against Washington, neither the Raiders nor Broncos can afford to lose.
Historically, the Broncos have been outstanding at home early in the season. In weeks 1-4, the Broncos are 23-4 straight up at home and have won 12 straight dating back to 2012. Though I doubt many people know that random statistic off the top of their head, Denver is getting the brunt of the early action.
As you can see, the line is right on the verge of hitting 3 if this betting activity keeps up. If you become a member, this would be a great game to utilize the line watcher tool, which will alert you if/when the line hits 3 at your sportsbooks.
Keep your eyes glued to the NFL free odds page throughout the week and follow us @SportsInsights for any updates…though we are unfortunately NOT one of the lucky people with the new 280 character limit.