Trump Resignation Odds Rise After Mueller Appointment

Donald Trump is in big league trouble.

Earlier this month, we wrote about how his impeachment odds increased following the dismissal of FBI Director James Comey.

Since then, things have only gotten worse for Trump.

On Monday, it was revealed that he shared classified information with the Russian foreign minister and ambassador during their recent visit to the Oval Office. Less than 24 hours later, news broke that Trump may have obstructed justice by asking Comey to end the investigation into Michael Flynn, Trump’s former national security adviser.

Following the two bombshell reports, the odds of Trump being impeached for “treason” immediately spiked.

Then, on Wednesday, Trump’s worst nightmare came true as the Justice Department appointed former FBI Director Robert Mueller as special counsel for the Russia investigation.

The magnitude of Mueller’s appointment cannot be understated. Simply put, it’s a massive blow to Trump and raises the stakes immensely. It means the investigation into possible collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia will be taken out of the hands of congress and move forward unabated under the critical eye of an independent investigator.

The Mueller appointment has caused massive odds movement at betting markets.

At the Irish sportsbook Paddy Power, the odds of the FBI confirming Trump-Russia collusion have skyrocketed.

At PredictIt, a New Zealand-based online market for political bettors, Trump impeachment odds have risen from 5% to nearly 35% over the past week.

However, at Paddy Power, something very interesting has happened: Trump’s impeachment odds have fallen, but his odds of resigning have risen.

It appears that square bettors are hammering “impeachment” but sharp money is actually on “resign.” This makes sense since Republicans control both houses of congress and the last thing they want to do is impeach a president from their own party.

Meanwhile, at Bovada, Trump is not expected to finish out his full term as president.

What do you think?

Will you be placing a wager on Trump to be impeached? Is betting on Trump to resign a smarter play?

More broadly, do you agree that Trump is doomed? Or are the betting markets overreacting?

Please leave your thoughts in the comments section below.

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Josh Appelbaum

Josh Appelbaum is the Customer Service Manager, Affiliate Manager and Political Expert for Sports Insights. He can be reached directly at joshua@sportsinsights.com or on Twitter at @Josh_Insights

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