Predicting Eagles’ Playoff Spreads Without Carson Wentz
The Eagles officially received news that stud QB Carson Wentz suffered a torn ACL in Sunday’s win against the Rams and will miss the rest of the season. Oddsmakers were quick to update their futures odds to reflect the loss of Wentz and Bookmaker.eu suggested that the drop-off to backup Nick Foles is 3-4 points.
With this in mind, we reached out to Scott Cooley, an odds consultant for Bookmaker.eu, for potential playoff spreads pitting Philadelphia against each of the top NFC and AFC contenders.
Assuming the Eagles play their first playoff game at home, here are Cooley’s projected point spreads against potential NFC opponents:
vs. Vikings (pk)
vs. Falcons (+1)
vs. Rams (+2)
vs. Saints (+2)
vs. Panthers (+2.5)
vs. Seahawks (+3)
Yes, you’re reading that correctly: The Wentz-less Eagles would not be a home underdog against any of the NFC playoff hopefuls.
What about the AFC? Should Philadelphia advance to Super Bowl 52, here’s how bookmakers would set the neutral-field line against the main contenders:
vs. Jaguars (+1)
vs. Chiefs (+1)
vs. Steelers (-3)
vs. Patriots (-6.5)
Even without Wentz, Philadelphia could find a way to be favored in every playoff game, including the Super Bowl, if somehow New England and Pittsburgh both stumble in the AFC. And even if they do end up facing the Pats or Steelers, those are far from daunting spreads.
Surprised? Don’t be. The Eagles have certainly benefitted from Wentz’s brilliance this season, but they’re far from a one-man show. Philly entered Week 14 with a top-10 run game, a top-5 defense, and a top-10 special-teams unit, according to Football Outsiders’ advanced metrics.
Oh, and they have a back-up QB who has enjoyed NFL success and just helped lead a fourth-quarter comeback against the red-hot Rams.
You never want to lose an MVP candidate, but if you do, this is the ideal supporting cast to have waiting in the wings.