NFL Week 8 Betting Recap

– Apparently bettors are late risers. This weekend’s Lions/Falcons game — which kicked off at 9:30 AM eastern in London, England — received roughly 27,000 bets. For comparison, only Tennessee/Washington and Minnesota/Buffalo received fewer bets last Sunday.

– While many bettors may have missed the beginning of the Lions/Falcons game, it was tough to miss the ending. After falling behind 21-0 in the first half, the Lions scored 10 straight points to make it 21-10 entering the fourth quarter.

– Matt Prater, the Lions third new place kicker this season, booted a 48-yard game winner as time expired to give the Lions to a 22-21 win. Ironically, Prater missed a 43-yard attempt just before the kick, but was saved by a delay of game penalty.

– Favorites went just 8-7 ATS this week and are now 60-58 ATS on the season. Home teams went 9-5 ATS this week bringing their season record to 58-58 ATS. Teams receiving less than 50% of spread bets went 10-5 ATS bringing their record to 58-58 ATS — teams receiving no more than 40% of spread bets are 42-37 ATS on the year. Teams coming off a loss went 7-7 bringing their season record to 58-58.

– Although that Packers/Saints game was only third in bets at the time of that post, it closed the day as the most heavily bet game. In fact, the most popular games for bettors have been dominated by prime time matchups.

– Each week former Caesars oddsmaker Todd Fuhrman tweets out the teams being pounded by sharp money and the teams being hammered by the less-informed public. This week the Pros were 3-4 ATS while the Joes were 2-2 ATS.

– To say Geno Smith struggled last week would be the understatement of the century, much like saying Charlie Sheen has “some erratic tendencies.” The second year quarterback completed just 2 of 8 passes for 5 yards and 3 interceptions before being replaced by Michael Vick. The former Falcons and Eagles quarterback is expected to start next week when the Jets (+10) travel to Kansas City to face the Chiefs — but buyer beware.

– Most popular Week 8 teams:

  1. Houston Texans (-3.5 at Tennessee) – 80% of spread bets
  2. Indianapolis Colts (-5 at Pittsburgh) – 77% of spread bets
  3. Miami Dolphins (-7 at Jacksonville) – 73% of spread bets
  4. Detroit Lions (-3.5 vs. Atlanta) – 68% of spread bets
  5. Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5 vs. St. Louis) – 68% of spread bets

– The under went 8-7 in Week 8 and but is just 54-64 on the season. Although bettors typically consider the under to be undervalued, the over has actually had a winning record every season since 2009.

– You can view the latest odds and public betting trends on our free NFL odds page, but some opening of lines of interest include: (via CRIS)

  1. Denver Broncos (-3) at New England Patriots
  2. Baltimore Ravens (pick ’em) at Pittsburgh Steelers
  3. New Orleans Saints (-1.5) at Carolina Panthers
  4. Indianapolis Colts (-3) at New York Giants

– Although Colt McCoy led the Redskins (+10 on the spread, +369 on the moneyline) to an unlikely 20-17 overtime victory over the Dallas Cowboys, it may be his loan start this season. Robert Griffin III, who had not played since dislocating his left ankle in Week 2, is listed as questionable for this week’s matchup in Minnesota. Note: The Redskins game is currently off the board as we await news regarding Washington’s starting QB.

– Other key injuries to monitor include:

  1. Rams OT Jake Long, Knee, Out For Year
  2. Colts WR Reggie Wayne, Elbow, Doubtful
  3. Bengals WR A.J. Green, Toe, Questionable
  4. Lions WR Calvin Johnson, Ankle, Questionable
  5. Lions RB Reggie Bush, Ankle, Questionable
  6. Eagles RB Darren Sproles, Knee, Questionable
  7. Cardinals CB Patrick Peterson, Concussion, Questionable
  8. Chargers RB Ryan Mathews, Knee, Questionable
  9. Browns TE Jordan Cameron, Concussion, Questionable
  10. Packers QB Aaron Rodgers, Hamstring, Probable
  11. Cowboys QB Tony Romo, Back, Probable
  12. Chiefs QB Alex Smith, Shoulder, Probable

– For the latest news and injury updates, make sure to visit our free NFL injury page.

– MVP odds movement since last week at Sportsbook.com:

    1. Peyton Manning +220 to +130
    2. Aaron Rodgers +280 to +500
    3. DeMarco Murray +800 to +600
    4. Andrew Luck +650 to +1000
    5. Tom Brady +2000 to +1200
    6. Philip Rivers +1200 to +1500
    7. Russell Wilson +2500 to +2500
    8. JJ Watt +2500  to +5000
    9. Demaryius Thomas +3000 to +5000
    10. Dez Bryant +4000 to +5000

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David Solar

David Solar has been the Content Manager at Sports Insights for over four years. He specializes in sports betting analytics and has created several popular data-driven betting systems. He can be reached directly at david@sportsinsights.com or on twitter at @TheDavidSolar.

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