NFL Week 3 Betting Recap

– Injuries were a major story line this week with Redskins DB DeAngelo Hall (Achilles), Ravens TE Dennis Pitta (Hip), Lions LB Stephen Tullock (Knee) and Chargers RB Danny Woodhead (Ankle) all suffering season ending injuries.

– You can view all of the latest player news by checking out the injury page on our free NFL odds page.

– During Week 3 we saw the changing of the guard for two franchises as the Jaguars and the Vikings handed the reigns over to their rookie quarterbacks. Although Johnny Manziel remains firmly entrenched behind Brian Hoyer on the depth chart, Blake Bortles replaced a struggling Chad Henne in Jacksonville while Teddy Bridgewater replaced an injured Matt Cassel (Foot) in Minnesota.

– With both rookies making their first career starts, the Jaguars opened as 13.5-point underdogs in San Diego while the Vikings opened as 3-point home dogs against Atlanta.

– Most popular parlay teams:

  1. Colts (93%)
  2. Saints (90%)
  3. Cowboys (89%)
  4. Bengals (87%)
  5. Patriots (86%)

– Of those popular parlay teams, only New England (-14 vs. Oakland) failed to cover against the spread and all five teams won outright.

– Entering this week, moneyline underdogs had gone 14-18 for (+1.41 units). In Week 3 underdogs went 5-11 straight up for +0.72 units.

– While betting moneyline underdogs has been profitable, the sweet spot in the early season has been dogs receiving less than 50% of moneyline bets. Entering this week, these dogs had gone 11-8  for +11.71 units, however, this week they struggled going just 2-8 with -4.93 units lost.

– In Week 3 underdogs went just 7-8 ATS although they still boast a 26-20 record on the season.

– In Week 3 visitors went 8-7 ATS bringing their season record to 26-20.

– In Week 3 teams coming off a loss went 9-7 ATS and are now 18-13 on the year.

– In Week 3 the under went just 7-9 but remains in the green on the season with a 25-23 record.

– Top 5 Consensus SuperContest Plays:

  1. Redskins (+6.5)
  2. Colts (-6.5)
  3. Giants (+2)
  4. Bengals (-6.5)
  5. Cowboys (-1.5)

– All five of the most popular SuperContest picks covered with Washington and Dallas representing the only close calls.

– Tampa Bay Buccaneers Josh McCown is out indefinitely with a thumb injury and will be replaced next week by second year signal caller Mike Glennon. At the time of publication, Tampa Bay was receiving 32% of spread bets as a 7.5-point underdog in Pittsburgh.

– Six NFL teams have byes in Week 4 including the: Arizona Cardinals, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Denver Broncos, Seattle Seahawks and St. Louis Rams.

– Yesterday we posted an article detailing the biggest movements in the NFL Futures market led by the Bengals, Seahawks and Chargers.

– On Sunday afternoon we tweeted out the most bet NFL games:

– There aren’t currently any system matches but make sure to read up on our latest NFL betting systems:

  1. Betting Against the Public: Buying Low on Playoff Teams
  2. 2014 NFL Betting Against the Public Report

– Prior to the start of the season we published an article which examines the Divisional Odds for all 32 NFL teams. The biggest changes in each division are:

  1. Philadelphia Eagles: +100 to -250
  2. Detroit Lions: +400 to +175
  3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers +550 to +4000
  4. Arizona Cardinals: +700 to +275
  5. Buffalo Bills: +900 to +600
  6. Cincinnati Bengals: +200 to -135
  7. Houston Texans: +300 to +160
  8. San Diego Chargers: +500 to +325

– Before the season we also posted MVP odds and, although Peyton Manning (+300) is still the favorite, we’ve seen a number of players improve their stock. Some of the biggest risers include:

  1. Philip Rivers: N/A to +1600
  2. Andy Dalton: N/A to +3300
  3. Matt Ryan: +5000 to +1400
  4. Nick Foles: +5000 to +2000
  5. Russell Wilson: +1600 to +1000
  6. Andrew Luck: +2500 to +1600

– Have any questions for the staff at Sports Insights? Make sure to leave your thoughts and opinions in the comment section below.

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David Solar

David Solar has been the Content Manager at Sports Insights for over four years. He specializes in sports betting analytics and has created several popular data-driven betting systems. He can be reached directly at david@sportsinsights.com or on twitter at @TheDavidSolar.

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