NFL Week 3 Futures Changes

In this weekly post, we take a look at how a team’s Super Bowl futures have changed since before the NFL season started. As always, I’ve converted the futures odds into implied percentages and sorted by how much the percentage has increased or decreased for each team.

  Prior to Season Current Odds Prior to Season % Current % % Change
Bengals 3300 1200 2.94% 7.69% 4.75%
Seahawks 550 400 15.38% 20.00% 4.62%
Chargers 3300 1600 2.94% 5.88% 2.94%
Eagles 2500 1600 3.85% 5.88% 2.04%
Lions 4500 2500 2.17% 3.85% 1.67%
Cardinals 3300 2500 2.94% 3.85% 0.90%
Falcons 4000 3500 2.44% 2.78% 0.34%
Cowboys 6000 5000 1.64% 1.96% 0.32%
Bills 10000 8000 0.99% 1.23% 0.24%
Bears 2500 2500 3.85% 3.85% 0.00%
Steelers 4000 4000 2.44% 2.44% 0.00%
Jaguars 25000 100000 0.40% 0.10% -0.30%
Titans 15000 50000 0.66% 0.20% -0.46%
Panthers 4000 5000 2.44% 1.96% -0.48%
Ravens 3300 4000 2.94% 2.44% -0.50%
Dolphins 7500 12500 1.32% 0.79% -0.52%
Raiders 15000 100000 0.66% 0.10% -0.56%
Jets 8000 15000 1.23% 0.66% -0.57%
Vikings 10000 25000 0.99% 0.40% -0.59%
Texans 5000 8000 1.96% 1.23% -0.73%
Browns 8000 20000 1.23% 0.50% -0.74%
Chiefs 6600 15000 1.49% 0.66% -0.83%
Rams 8000 25000 1.23% 0.40% -0.84%
Redskins 5000 12500 1.96% 0.79% -1.17%
Buccaneers 7500 100000 1.32% 0.10% -1.22%
Colts 2000 2800 4.76% 3.45% -1.31%
Giants 4000 10000 2.44% 0.99% -1.45%
Broncos 450 500 18.18% 16.67% -1.52%
49ers 1000 1400 9.09% 6.67% -2.42%
Patriots 750 1000 11.76% 9.09% -2.67%
Saints 900 1600 10.00% 5.88% -4.12%
Packers 800 2200 11.11% 4.35% -6.76%

*Odds are from BetOnline and are current as of 9/22/14

Moving Up

After destroying the Titans, the Bengals top the list. Cincinnati has gotten off to a 3-0 start and hasn’t lost a home game since December 9th, 2012. As much as they would like to keep their momentum (if it exists) going, the Bengals have a bye week coming up before they go on the road to face the Patriots in Week 5.  Currently, only the Seahawks, Broncos, and Patriots have better futures odds than the Bengals.

The Seahawks were able to withstand a Peyton Manning comeback and drive for a touchdown in overtime in the Super Bowl rematch.  While odds shifting from +550 to +400 doesn’t look like a huge change, it’s a 4.62% change in implied percentages and +400 is the shortest odds any NFL team has had up to this point.

The Chargers are 2-1 but their only loss was at a now 3-0 Arizona Cardinals team.  Injuries to Ryan Mathews and Danny Woodhead have depleted their depth at the running back position but books respect San Diego with +1600 odds to win it all in February.

Falling Down

Aaron Rodgers may have Olivia Munn, but he doesn’t have much support from his offense.  The Packers are 1-2 and have averaged 18 points per game.  Eddie Lacy, who was projected as a top RB in fantasy has a total of 113 rushing yards in the first 3 games.  Their inability to score has been a factor in the Packers odds dropping from +800 to +2200.

Speaking of inept offenses, the Patriots were only able to muster up 16 points against the Raiders on Sunday.  The Patriots are 2-1 but wins over Minnesota and Oakland aren’t exactly impressive and books have adjusted them from +750 to +1000 after 3 games.  While their odds have dropped, they still have the second best odds in the AFC behind Denver but the Bengals could catch them soon.  New England (-4) heads to Kansas City on Monday night to take on the Chiefs.

The 49ers are having trouble closing out games as their opponents have outscored them in the second half by a total of 52-3.  They have also failed to score in the 4th quarter in any of their first three games.  Their one win was against the Cowboys who gave the ball away four times.  San Francisco takes on Philly (combined 74 points in second halves this season) at home next week, meaning Jim Harbaugh and Colin Kaepernick are going to need to figure out how to score in the second half if they want to avoid a 1-3 record.

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Travis

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