The NFL season never seems to end. Once a champion is crowned, we immediately start to look at 40-yard dash times and try to keep up with the quarterback carousel. Now that the NFL Draft has concluded, football bettors are itching for the next big day of the schedule: the release of NFL season win totals.
With the release of point spreads for weeks 1-16 by Cantor Gaming over the weekend, we are one step closer. But why wait? With the point spreads and a few calculations, we can project NFL season win totals for each team right now.
To do this, we can easily convert a point spread into a winning percentage for every game this year. For example, a 3-point favorite has an expected winning percentage of 59.37%. Therefore, every time a team is favored by 3 points, we can give them credit for .5937 wins. Conversely, a 3-point dog would then receive .4063 wins (1-.5937).
By extrapolating this over the course of the entire season, you can come up with the following Over/Under projections:
|Team||Games Favored||Calculated Wins||Projected O/U|
|San Francisco 49ers||13||10.73||11|
|New England Patriots||12||10.71||11|
|Green Bay Packers||11||9.27||9.5|
|New Orleans Saints||9||8.90||9|
|New York Giants||6||8.57||8.5|
|San Diego Chargers||6||7.80||8|
|Kansas City Chiefs||5||7.79||8|
|New York Jets||5||7.11||7|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||6||7.07||7|
|St. Louis Rams||4||6.91||7|
Note: Week 17 spreads were approximated by using the previous meeting between the two teams and adjusting for home field advantage. Since all week 17 games are divisional games, we already have a baseline to use.
Teams of Interest
The 49ers and Seahawks are the NFC favorites to reach the Super Bowl and these projections fall right in line with that thinking. With the public gushing over both teams, do not be surprised if these Over/Unders open higher than our suggested totals.
The Ravens may be the defending champions, but they still have a lot of question marks with a litany of key players leaving via free agency or retirement. They also play in the AFC North, which is the only division to feature three teams with totals of 8.5 or more and figures to be very competitive all season.
With Aaron Rodgers now signed for a bajillion dollars, you should be able to pencil in the Packers for 10 wins every year, right? The math says not so fast, and a lot of that has to do with the fact that the other three teams in their division are expected to at least contend with 8 projected wins.
The Dolphins made a bevy of moves in the offseason to improve their team, but are only favored in 5 games by the oddsmakers. But with 12 of Miami’s games featuring a spread of 3 points or fewer, a handful of key turnovers or lucky bounces could put them in the wildcard hunt.
RG3 led the Redskins to a division title last season, but coming off of major knee surgery may have oddsmakers a little unsure about what to expect this season. With most of the team returning, it is a little surprising to only see them projected to go 7-9.
What do you think?
Which teams are being overvalued or undervalued by the oddsmakers as afar as their projected NFL season win totals go? Are the 49ers and Seahawks locks to go 12-4 or 13-3? Would you dare bet on the Raiders Over? Let us know what you think in the comments section.