In last week’s analysis, we explained why reverse line movement and additional sharp money indicators pointed to value on the Oakland Raiders. Not only did Oakland cover the spread as a 4-point underdog, they were able to defeat San Diego straight up.
This week, we decided to analyze arguably the season’s most hotly anticipated game — Sunday night’s showdown between Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers. Not only is this game the most heavily bet of the week, it’s actually receiving more than twice the number of bets as the second most heavily bet game (Jets at Raiders).
This shouldn’t come as a surprise considering that the Packers and Broncos are two of five remaining undefeated teams. Right now the odds of any team posting a perfect regular season (16-0) are +300 and the odds of any team posting a true perfect season (16-0) are +800.
While the Patriots have the best odds of posting an undefeated regular season, the Packers actually have the second best of running the table.
Perfect Regular Season (16-0) Odds Patriots +600 Packers +1000 Bengals +2500 Panthers +2800 Broncos +4000
— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) October 29, 2015
Although the Packers odds of going 16-0 are much better than the Broncos odds, Sunday night’s game actually opened as a pick ’em at CRIS. When you consider that home field advantage is typically value between 2.5 to 3-points, this would seem to provide further evidence that oddsmakers believe Green Bay is the superior team.
In early betting, the Packers have received 76% of spread bets and 53% of moneyline bets at our contributing offshore sportsbooks. This one-sided public betting has moved the line from a pick ’em to Green Bay -3. It should be noted that it’s actually a juiced up -3 and most of the sports betting marketplace is offering Green Bay as a 2.5-point favorite. Once again, this highlights the importance of shopping for the best line.
The screenshot below displays how public betting has impacted the line at CRIS.
To compare how our offshore betting trends compared to Las Vegas, we spoke with Michael Grodsky from the William Hill sportsbook. Their betting trends were even more lopsided with 87% of tickets and 89% of total dollars wagered taking the Packers.
These numbers are subject to change before kickoff, so bettors should be sure to visit our free NFL odds page for the latest lines, injuries, public betting trends and more.
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David Solar is the Content Manager for Sports Insights and can be reached directly at David@sportsinsights.com.
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