How Has the First Day of Free Agency Affected NFL Win Totals?

How Has the First Day of Free Agency Affected NFL Win Totals?

Several weeks ago, GC Technology became the first major sportsbook to post NFL win totals for the upcoming 2016 season. Their numbers had the Packers, Panthers, Patriots, Steelers and Seahawks leading the way with 10.5 projected wins, while the Browns were viewed as the league’s weakest team with an over/under of 4.5 wins.

Yesterday marked the first day of free agency, and there were several moves that send shock waves around the league. On the defensive side, former Dolphins DE Olivier Vernon signed a five-year, $85 million contract with the Giants, former Broncos DE Malik Jackson signed a six-year, $90 million deal with the Jaguars and former Seahawks LB Bruce Irvin signed a four-year, $40 million deal with the Raiders.

On the offensive side of the football, the biggest surprise came from the Houston Texans who managed to snag a potential franchise quarterback (Brock Osweiler) and running back (Lamar Miller). This development was devastating for the Denver Broncos following Peyton Manning’s retirement announcement earlier this week.

These moves caused major movement to the win totals at CG Technology as you can see from the table below.

TEAMCG Technology (3/10)CG TECHNOLOGY (2/25)
Arizona Cardinals9.5 (o-120)9.5 (o-120)
Atlanta Falcons7 (o-120)7
Baltimore Ravens7.5 (o-155)7.5 (u-125)
Buffalo Bills88
Carolina Panthers10.5 (u-125)10.5 (u-130)
Chicago Bears6.5 (o-125)6.5 (o-120)
Cincinnati Bengals9.59.5
Cleveland Browns4.5 (o-145)4.5 (o-130)
Dallas Cowboys9 (u-135)9 (u-125)
Denver Broncos9.5 (u-150)9.5 (u-120)
Detroit Lions7 (o-130)7
Green Bay Packers10.5 (o-155)10.5
Houston Texans8 (o-125)8 (u-130)
Indianapolis Colts8.5 (o-180)8.5 (o-130)
Jacksonville Jaguars6.5 (o-125)6 (o-130)
Kansas City Chiefs9 (o-160)9
Los Angeles Rams7 (u-130)7 (o-130)
Miami Dolphins7 (o-120)7 (u-125)`
Minnesota Vikings9 (o-150)9 (o-120)
New England Patriots10.5 (u-125)10.5 (o-120)
New Orleans Saints6.5 (u-120)7 (u-130)
New York Giants7.5 (o-130)7.5 (o-130)
New York Jets8 (o-125)8 (o-125)
Oakland Raiders8 (u-130)7.5 (o-135)
Philadelphia Eagles7.5 (u-135)7.5
Pittsburgh Steelers10.5 (u-135)10.5 (u-125)
San Diego Chargers7 (u-145)7 (u-120)
San Francisco 49ers5 (o-145)5 (o-120)
Seattle Seahawks10.5 (o-125)10.5 (o-125)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers6.5 (o-130)6.5 (u-125)
Tennessee Titans5.5 (o-130)5.5 (o-130)
Washington Redskins7.5 (o-120)7.5 (o-120)

Although the Broncos win total did not move following Wednesday’s activity, there was a significant adjustment to the juice on the under which moved from -120 to -150. Similarly, the Texans win total remained unchanged but the juice on the over moved from +100 to -125.

It was interesting to see that the actual win total only changed for three teams: Jacksonville (6 to 6.5), New Orleans (7 to 6.5) and Oakland (7.5 to 8). The Raiders made two major additions to their defense with the high-profile signings of LB Bruce Irvin and CB Sean Smith while the Jaguars also improved their defense by adding DE Malik Jackson and S Tashaun Gipson. Jacksonville also added some much-needed toughness by adding former Jets running back Chris Ivory.

New Orleans did make a major acquisition by signing former Colts TE Coby Fleener to a five-year, $36 million deal but clearly bettors are skeptical about the Saints prospects next season.

Looking at the movement on the juice, some of the most notable teams include: Baltimore 7.5 (u-125 to o-155), Green Bay 10.5 (o-115 to o-155), Indianapolis 8.5 (o-130 to o-180), Kansas City 9 (o-115 to o-160), New England 10.5 (o-120 to u-125), San Diego 7 (u-120 to u-145), San Francisco 5 (o-120 to o-145) and Tampa Bay 6.5 (u-125 to o-130).

It will be interesting to monitor Tom Brady’s on-going court case since the Patriots’ win total could decrease by roughly 0.73 games if Brady were to be suspended for four games. There are also many unsigned free agents that could impact win totals including S Eric Weddle, T Russell Okung, CB Prince Amukamara and several others.

Which teams do you think are offering value? Will you be taking any of these win totals? Can the Broncos overcome these two key losses? Please leave your thoughts in the comment section below.

Make sure to bookmark our free NFL odds page for the latest lines, public betting trends, injuries, futures and more. Have any questions for the staff at Sports Insights? Utilize our live chat to speak with a customer service representative or e-mail us at help@sportsinsights.com.

David Solar is the Content Manager at Sports Insights and can be reached directly at David@SportsInsights.com


David Solar

David is the Content Manager at Sports Insights. He specializes in sports betting analytics and creating data-driven betting systems.

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