Euro 2016 is down to the final 4 teams with Portugal taking on Wales on Wednesday, and France taking on Germany on Thursday. Wales were the only underdog to advance from the quarterfinals and were once at 500:1 to win it all when odds were posted in 2014. France and Germany have been the favorites to win throughout, while Portugal have been lurking right on the outside as a dark horse.
Odds to Advance to Finals:
Portugal are favored by nearly the same line they saw against Poland, a match which proved difficult to advance in. Wales have a ton of confidence and momentum, but the suspension of Aaron Ramsey is massive for them. I would have liked Wales to possibly advance if he were playing, but without him I think Portugal will move on. Their real value may be on the 3-way moneyline though, which I’ll highlight below.
Germany are a slight, slight favorite to advance even though betting has moved the 3-way moneyline towards France. This means oddsmakers would favor Germany if the game went to extra time and/or penalties, but Germany are without several key players. France are at home with no suspensions and finally seem to be hitting their stride. Even with a future on France to win it all at +300, I’ve decided not to hedge in this game and also like France to advance at -109 odds.
Here’s a look at the betting market for the 3-way moneyline, which has seen some reverse-line movement in both matches:
At this point it’s not really surprising to see bettors flock towards Wales and Germany. Wales have upset teams all tourney long and at around +300 odds look very enticing. However, the loss of midfielder Aaron Ramsey will prove to be too costly in my opinion, and I think Portugal will get too many good scoring chances. Portugal have drawn all 5 matches they’ve played in this tournament but have found a way to get to the semifinals. I wasn’t high on them prior to the tournament but at this point they just have a lot more talent than Wales. At around +120 odds, I like Portugal to win in regulation and move on to the finals.
In the other semifinal, nearly 60% of moneyline bets are on Germany but their odds have gotten worse. There’s some reverse-line movement on France at Pinnacle, and it will be interesting to monitor this line up until game time. In the quarterfinals against Iceland, public bettors pushed the line down until about an hour before kickoff until a flood of France money came in. The game was never really in doubt and proved that patience paid off, literally. I’m not sure if I’d risk betting them to win in regulation, but -109 to advance is good value considering home-field and no injuries/suspensions.
Updated odds to win the title:
|Country||Jul 5, 2016
|Jun 29, 2016
|Jun 23, 2016
|Jun 6, 2016
|May 9, 2016
|Dec 14, 2015
|Oct 15, 2015
|Jul 18, 2014
Below was written prior to the Quarterfinals:
The Euro 2016 quarterfinals are set to begin on Thursday, June 30th with Poland taking on Portugal. One half of the bracket consists of Germany, Italy, France and Iceland while the other is made up of Poland, Portugal, Belgium, and Wales.
Odds to Advance to Semifinals:
France and Belgium clearly have the best odds to advance to the semifinals, while Germany and Portugal have tougher matchups. My group picks went 7-2 for +24.5 units but last round saw all losses, going 0-3 for -3 units. Picking against Italy has proven to be foolish and will be staying away from that matchup altogether. I like all the favorites to advance but think the best value is on Portugal at -170. Poland looked defeated after the first half against Switzerland and even though Portugal weren’t great against Croatia, they should be able to create chances against Poland.
At Pinnacle, 70% of tickets are taking underdogs Poland to advance, so I'll definitely fade the trendy underdog here.
Here’s a look at the betting market for those 3-way moneylines:
In the opening quarterfinal game, Portugal are a considerable favorite against Poland as they’re -170 to advance and +120 to win in regulation time. Neither team looked particularly great in the last round but both found a way to advance. Public bettors have also flocked to Poland on the 3-way moneyline at +300 odds, just another reason I like Portugal to move on.
On Friday, Belgium squares off against Wales and are big -310 favorites to advance to the semifinals. Belgium throttled Hungary in the knockout phase and appear to finally be living up to the hype from the last few years. Oddsmakers knew they’d attract bets on Belgium yet the line has barely moved around the market. Over 70% of tickets are on Belgium, but there’s a healthy number of tickets on Wales as well. The draw isn’t getting much love in this matchup which may be the smart bet at this point at +259 odds.
Saturday’s contest pits Germany against Italy, probably the best clash of the tournament so far. Italy have never lost to Germany at a major tournament, going 4-0-4, but none of the players will care about those numbers. While Germany are still -182 to advance, the 3-way moneyline is tight which suggests oddsmakers really respect Italy now, and extra time is very possible. The betting percentages make sense based on the odds, which sportsbooks always love since there’s less risk involved on any particular outcome.
The last quarterfinal takes place on Sunday with hosts France playing the surprise of the tournament Iceland. Their favorable matchup this round has propelled them back into tournament favorites but will still have to face the winner of Germany/Italy if they advance to the semifinals. Iceland are a very popular underdog pick once again but I wouldn’t count on another upset.
France was my pick to win it all at +300 odds prior to the tournament and will not be hedging in this round. In the quarterfinals I like Portugal to advance at -170 odds, as well as the Belgium/Wales draw at +259 odds.
Feel free to leave any thoughts on the matchups in the space below.
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