Euro 2016 Odds

We’ve now reached the semifinals of Euro 2016 where France and Germany remain the favorites to win. Portugal are favored to advance to the final against Wales, who were once 500:1 at Westgate when odds opened there in July of 2014.

The table below shows the odds to win Euro 2016 at two different offshore sportsbooks since opening:

Country Jul 5, 2016
(5Dimes)
Jun 29, 2016
(5Dimes)
Jun 23, 2016
(5Dimes)
Jun 6, 2016
(5Dimes)
May 9, 2016
(5Dimes)
Dec 14, 2015
(5Dimes)
Oct 15, 2015
(5Dimes)
Jul 18, 2014
(Sportsbk)
France +180 +285 +405 +310 +355 +340 +350 +500
Germany +180 +300 +455 +460 +365 +330 +325 +350
Portugal +350 +700 +1100 +1850 +2050 +2050 +2350 +1600
Wales +655 +2850 +2400 +8800 +7500 +8200 +6000 +25000
Spain N/A N/A +515 +550 +555 +530 +610 +400
Poland N/A +1500 +2000 +4800 +5000 +7200 +5250 +10000
Belgium N/A +420 +575 +1050 +1100 +1050 +1050 +1000
Iceland N/A +4500 +12500 +16000 +12000 +10000 +8500 N/A
England N/A N/A +890 +850 +855 +1050 +975 +1200
Croatia N/A N/A +950 +2750 +3850 +3250 +3500 +5000
Switzerland N/A N/A +4500 +6300 +8000 +7800 +8500 +5000
Hungary N/A N/A +7550 +51000 +43000 +35000 +50000 +25000
Italy N/A +600 +1400 +1800 +1700 +1600 +1650 +1000
Albania N/A N/A N/A +51000 +55000 +50000 +37500 N/A
Slovakia N/A N/A +18000 +16000 +25000 +17500 +15000 +25000
Northern Ireland N/A N/A +25000 +40000 +38000 +50000 +30000 N/A
Czech Republic N/A N/A N/A +15000 +16000 +12000 +8000 +10000
Austria N/A N/A N/A +4600 +4050 +4050 +4750 +20000
Russia N/A N/A N/A +7800 +8250 +8800 +7500 +2000
Turkey N/A N/A N/A +8800 +9000 +10500 +9000 +8000
Romania N/A N/A N/A +28000 +25000 +25000 +15000 +20000
Ukraine N/A N/A N/A +9000 +15000 +15000 +15000 +15000
Sweden N/A N/A N/A +11000 +11000 +11500 +10000 +8000
Ireland N/A N/A +11500 +17000 +14500 +16000 +25000 +15000

We’ve been tracking the odds from before the tournament and it was no surprise that 2014 World Cup champs Germany opened as the favorites to win Euro 2016, as they have an in-tact squad set to make a deep run. However, hosts France overtook them as the new favorites heading into the group stages as well as the quarterfinals. France were my pick at +300 odds prior to the tournament but will have a tough matchup in the semifinal with either Germany or Italy.

France gets a slightly favorable matchup with Iceland at least in the quarterfinal, a team who upset England last round after going down 1-0 very early in the game. Germany face Italy, which may actually be a tougher matchup than Spain would have been. Germany has never beaten Italy on a competitive stage, going 0-4-4 in those meetings. On the other side of the bracket, Belgium and Portugal are on a collision course to reach the semifinals, but Poland and Wales have both proven they can play with anyone.

At William Hill, Germany, Italy, and Belgium are receiving the most tickets to win it all, as well as the most money to win it all. At CRIS it’s the same, so at least at those two sportsbooks they wouldn’t mind a France title on home soil.

The preview below was published prior to the start of the tournament. Our 9 group futures earned bettors +24.45 units:

The 2016 European Championship is hosted by France and made up of the top 24 teams around the continent of Europe. All countries have now qualified for the tournament and will begin group play on June 10, 2016.

In the most recent Euros in 2012, Spain defeated Italy for the title hosted by Poland/Ukraine. Spain won in both 2008 as well, but it was longshots Greece to win in 2004 (albeit in a tournament with 16 teams, compared to 24 now), so this tournament has seen its share of upsets. Via SBRForum, here were the odds for each European winner since 1960:

Previous European Championship Winners 
2012—Spain (7/2)
2008—Spain (5/1)
2004—Greece (100/1)
2000—France (5/1)
1996—Germany (4/1)
1992—Denmark (25/1)
1988—Netherlands (8/1)
1984—France (5/1)
1980—West Germany (3/1)
1976—Czechoslovakia (5/1)
1972—West Germany (3/2)
1968—Italy (3/2)
1964—Spain (6/5)
1960—Soviet Union (3/1)

As for the 2016 European Championship, here’s how the groups look:
Euro 2016 groupppies

Below shows the odds to win each group at 5Dimes from December and current. Reminder that the top 2 teams from each group will advance to the knockout round along with the 4 best third-place teams:

Group A - Odds to Win May 16, 2016 Dec 19, 2015
France -300 -270
Switzerland +400 +350
Romania +900 +800
Albania +2500 +1650

Group A - Odds to Advance May 16, 2016 Dec 19, 2015
France -5000 N/A
Switzerland -400 N/A
Romania -150 N/A
Albania +175 N/A

France is clearly the best team in Group A and should advance/win without an issue. France is also my value pick to win Euro 2016 at +300 odds. Romania at +110 not to advance is a good bet in my opinion as Switzerland and France should progress.

Group B - Odds to Win May 16, 2016 Dec 19, 2015
England -125 -125
Russia +330 +300
Wales +400 +475
Slovakia +800 +900

Group B - Odds to Advance May 16, 2016 Dec 19, 2015
England -1100 N/A
Russia -300 N/A
Wales -175 N/A
Slovakia +115 N/A

Betting on England is always a risky proposition even if they have the strongest team in the group. I like Wales to advance, especially if you can grab better odds than -175. Russia to finish bottom at +350 odds is also intriguing, as well as Russia not to advance at +200.

Group C - Odds to Win May 16, 2016 Dec 19, 2015
Germany -300 -255
Poland +450 +405
Ukraine +700 +800
Northern Ireland +2200 +2200

Group C - Odds to Advance May 16, 2016 Dec 19, 2015
Germany -5000 N/A
Poland -350 N/A
Ukraine -225 N/A
Northern Ireland +200 N/A

The Germany-Poland rivalry makes this group interesting and public bettors will likely take Ukraine -225 to advance. Will be passing on this group entirely.

Group D - Odds to Win May 16, 2016 Dec 19, 2015
Spain -175 -190
Croatia +300 +250
Turkey +800 +1000
Czech Republic +850 +800

Group D - Odds to Advance May 16, 2016 Dec 19, 2015
Spain -2500 N/A
Croatia -300 N/A
Turkey -125 N/A
Czech Republic -110 N/A

This is the most intriguing and most competitive group in my opinion, even though Spain is the strongest. Turkey and Czech Republic appear to have some value to advance at this point but I’m not sure which goes through. In that case, I like Croatia not to advance at +220.

Group E - Odds to Win May 16, 2016 Dec 19, 2015
Belgium +110 -120
Italy +160 +165
Sweden +600 +650
Republic of Ireland +1000 +1150

Group E - Odds to Advance May 16, 2016 Dec 19, 2015
Belgium -1000 N/A
Italy -600 N/A
Sweden -150 N/A
Republic of Ireland +135 N/A

Of course Belgium and Italy are the strongest teams in Group E, but Sweden and Ireland could pull an early upset and really shake this group up. Italy at +400 not to advance has some value.

Group F - Odds to Win May 16, 2016 Dec 19, 2015
Portugal -120 -120
Austria +225 +220
Iceland +500 +450
Hungary +1100 +1200

Group F - Odds to Advance May 16, 2016 Dec 19, 2015
Portugal -1000 N/A
Austria -450 N/A
Iceland -160 N/A
Hungary +135 N/A

This is where a big underdog may cash, as Hungary +1100 to win the group is believable. Portugal tend to underperform, and neither Austria or Iceland will be too big of favorites against Hungary. For those who remember World Cup 2014, Hungary may be the Costa Rica of this year’s Euro 2016. Austria to finish at the bottom at +500 and not to advance at +325 also have some value.

And finally here are the odds for top goalscorer during the tournament:

Player Odds on May 8
Thomas Muller +750
Cristiano Ronaldo +750
Antoine Griezmann +850
Harry Kane +1400
Robert Lewandowski +1500
Romelu Lukaku +1600
Olivier Giroud +2000
Diego Costa +2500
Alvaro Morata +2500
Anthony Martial +2500
Marco Reus +3000
Paco Alcacer +3300
Zlatan Ibrahimovic +3300
Mario Gotze +3500
Andre Pierre Gignac +3500
Christian Benteke +4000
Eden Hazard +4000
Kevin de Bruyne +4000
Mario Gomez +4000
Mario Mandzukic +4000
Wayne Rooney +4000
Gareth Bale +4000
Jamie Vardy +4500
Daniel Sturridge +5000
Graziano Pelle +5000
David Silva +6000
Andre Schurrle +6500
Max Kruse +6500
Citadin Eder +6600
Pedro +8000
Marc Janko +8000
Aleksandr Kokorin +8000
Andriy Yarmolenko +8000
Artem Dzyuba +8000
Sebastian Giovinco +9000
Juan Mata +10000
Josip Drmic +10000
Martin Harnik +10000
Xherdan Shaqiri +10000
Mesut Ozil +10000
Raheem Sterling +10000
Burak Yilmaz +10000
Marko Arnautovic +10000
Paul Pogba +10000
Matej Vydra +12500
Santi Cazorla +15000
Arda Turan +15000
Arkadiusz Milik +15000
Ivan Rakitic +15000
Marouane Fellaini +15000
Shane Long +15000
Aaron Ramsey +17500
Robert Vittek +17500
Theo Walcot +20000
Marek Hamsik +20000
Gylfi Sigurdsson +20000
Luka Modric +20000
Jonathan Walters +25000
Kyle Lafferty +25000
Robbie Keane +25000
Andres Iniesta +25000

Since I took France to win it all, I do like starting forward Olivier Giroud to be top goalscorer in the tournament at 20:1 odds.

Who are you backing to win Euro 2016? Are there any group odds with value? Feel free to leave your thoughts and comments below.

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Dan McGuire

Dan McGuire is the Operations Manager and soccer specialist at Sports Insights. He can be reached at dan.mcguire@sportsinsights.com.

4 Comments Permalink
4 comments on “Euro 2016 Odds
  1. I believe France is rightfully the clear favourite to win, however it seems, that Euro championships always have tons of upsets.

    Italy to win at +1800 is to me a great value bet. Yes they are in a tough group, and yes they have not performed well lately, however they always perform best when they are counted out (world champions in 2006 when nobody believed in them).

    It is also worth remembering, that the best 3’s will advance. That means that only 8 teams will be eliminated after group stage. I easily see Italy advance from their group, play a 0-0 draw in the 1/8s and win on penalties. Then suddenly +1800 looks very very good, and you can easily trade out.

    England always disappoints (as you mention), but I have a feeling they will go far this year when (finally?) nobody believes in them. You can easily find them at +1000 to win the championship, and as with Italy that price will look very very attractive if they “suddenly” are in a 1/4 final.

    Finally I believe there will be a lot of value in playing “over the total” in group stage matches. Often these early games will be very tactically driven, but with 16 teams advancing (out of 24), there will be more room for risk taking.

    • Good call on Italy, they were definitely a miss for me. There have been a lot of unders so far but I think in these final group games that we’ll start seeing more overs like you said.

      • Thanks. Yes Italy was spot on while England has been more lukewarm.

        I actually think they have played very well, but they have not been able to score enough goals. If they can win their group (they are currently at 1st place) they will meet a 3rd place team in the 1/8s and have a supposedly easy road to the quarter finals.

        And yes the over play has been way off so far. However, I do also believe we will see more overs in the last group games as you say.

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