Euro 2016 Finals Preview: France vs. Portugal

Host country and pre-tournament co-favorites France have earned a spot in the Euro 2016 Finals, where they’ll play Portugal on Sunday, July 10th.

Portugal had drawn 5 straight games before beating Wales in the semifinals. France have now won 5 of 6 games while only drawing against Switzerland. Clearly France has the better overall team and are fairly big favorites to win the title now. Here’s a look at how each team’s odds have fluctuated since opening back in July of 2014. France was as high as +500 while Portugal was as high as +2350:

Country Jul 5, 2016
(5Dimes)
Jun 29, 2016
(5Dimes)
Jun 23, 2016
(5Dimes)
Jun 6, 2016
(5Dimes)
May 9, 2016
(5Dimes)
Dec 14, 2015
(5Dimes)
Oct 15, 2015
(5Dimes)
Jul 18, 2014
(Sportsbk)
France -220 +285 +405 +310 +355 +340 +350 +500
Portugal +180 +700 +1100 +1850 +2050 +2050 +2350 +1600
Ireland N/A N/A +11500 +17000 +14500 +16000 +25000 +15000
Wales N/A +2850 +2400 +8800 +7500 +8200 +6000 +25000
Spain N/A N/A +515 +550 +555 +530 +610 +400
Poland N/A +1500 +2000 +4800 +5000 +7200 +5250 +10000
Belgium N/A +420 +575 +1050 +1100 +1050 +1050 +1000
Iceland N/A +4500 +12500 +16000 +12000 +10000 +8500 N/A
England N/A N/A +890 +850 +855 +1050 +975 +1200
Croatia N/A N/A +950 +2750 +3850 +3250 +3500 +5000
Switzerland N/A N/A +4500 +6300 +8000 +7800 +8500 +5000
Hungary N/A N/A +7550 +51000 +43000 +35000 +50000 +25000
Germany N/A +300 +455 +460 +365 +330 +325 +350
Albania N/A N/A N/A +51000 +55000 +50000 +37500 N/A
Slovakia N/A N/A +18000 +16000 +25000 +17500 +15000 +25000
Northern Ireland N/A N/A +25000 +40000 +38000 +50000 +30000 N/A
Czech Republic N/A N/A N/A +15000 +16000 +12000 +8000 +10000
Austria N/A N/A N/A +4600 +4050 +4050 +4750 +20000
Russia N/A N/A N/A +7800 +8250 +8800 +7500 +2000
Turkey N/A N/A N/A +8800 +9000 +10500 +9000 +8000
Romania N/A N/A N/A +28000 +25000 +25000 +15000 +20000
Ukraine N/A N/A N/A +9000 +15000 +15000 +15000 +15000
Sweden N/A N/A N/A +11000 +11000 +11500 +10000 +8000
Italy N/A +600 +1400 +1800 +1700 +1600 +1650 +1000

Germany was getting more than half the money wagered to win it all at William Hill prior to their semifinal loss to France, so that was a result they welcomed. For the Final, here were the 3-way moneyline opening odds from Pinnacle:

France +103
Portugal +377
Draw +217

Below is a screenshot from our Pro Live Odds page, showing opening and current odds as well as market betting percentages (free members can view odds here: sportsinsights.com/euro):

As a reminder, the 3-way moneyline is based on 90 minutes only, so it does not include extra time or a shootout. As of Sunday morning, France are getting nearly 70% of moneyline tickets around the market but have dropped from -110 to -102 at CRIS, and +103 to +113 at Pinnacle. Portugal are also getting a high % of moneyline bets considering they opened nearly 4:1 to win in regulation, and their odds have moved from +380 to +348 at CRIS and +377 to +337 at Pinnacle. This would indicate that sportsbooks are taking some bigger bets on Portugal to win in regulation to move the line, but the real value may be on the draw. Just 6% of bettors think the final will go into extra time, but the draw line has moved from +217 to +211 at Pinnacle, meaning there’s sharp money on the draw.


At around +215 odds, the draw looks to be the play in the Euro 2016 Final.

Click to Tweet

Portugal may be getting their best defender Pepe back, who missed out last game due to injury. France are healthy and their biggest issue is finding the right lineup to start with. They have plenty of options and depth off the bench, which gives them a huge edge if this game does reach extra time or a shootout. With a future on France at +300 odds, there’s only a small temptation to simply hedge on Portugal at +180 but still feel like the real value here is on the draw, with France to win in either extra time or penalty kicks.

Up until the semifinals, moneyline favorites had not performed well at Euro 2016. However, France and Portugal both took care of business in the semis as moneyline favorites to improve those results. Overall, draws have nearly broken even while moneyline underdogs have cashed in considerably:

Euro Results Moneyline Favorites Moneyline Underdogs Draw
Wins 21 14 15
Units Won -12.82 +12.43 +0.26
Highest Payout France +170 vs. Germany Iceland +895 vs. England Portugal/Iceland +353

Lastly, France’s Antoine Griezmann is now nearly a lock to be top goalscorer at the tournament, and he’s currently listed at -30000 ($30,000 to make $100). Prior to the tourney, he was listed at +850 behind only Thomas Muller and Cristiano Ronaldo.

If you’re holding a ticket on France to win it all, are you letting it ride or locking in a sure profit? If you happened to bet Portugal to win it, are you hedging on France? Feel free to leave your comments below.

The following two tabs change content below.

Dan McGuire

Dan McGuire is the Operations Manager and soccer specialist at Sports Insights. He can be reached at dan.mcguire@sportsinsights.com.

Latest posts by Dan McGuire (see all)

1 Comment Permalink
One comment on “Euro 2016 Finals Preview: France vs. Portugal
  1. Got a futures ticket on France. But I’d like to see Portugal win to watch Ronaldo win his trophy so I will be hedging on Portugal for the sure profit so that I can back them in the game

Say something

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked with a grey bar.

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>