CFB Week 13 Opening Line Report: Will Road Favorites Take Care of Business?
The biggest week of the college football season is upon us with a number of massive matchups like Alabama at Auburn, and Ohio State at Michigan. Here’s a look at how the summer lines compare to opening and current odds:
|Golden Nugget Lookahead
|Alabama at Auburn||Bama -4||Bama -4.5||Bama -6.5|
|Ohio St at Michigan||Ohio St -11.5||Ohio St -10||Ohio St -6|
|Florida St at Florida||FSU -4.5||FSU -4.5||FSU -4|
|Clemson at South Carolina||Clem -14||Clem -14||Clem -10|
|Texas A&M at LSU||LSU -11||LSU -10.5||LSU -12|
|Washington State at Washington||Wash -9.5||Wash -11||Wash -16|
|West Virginia at Oklahoma||Off Board||Off Board||Okla -22|
|Notre Dame at Stanford||ND -2.5||ND -1.5||Stan -9.5|
|Georgia at Georgia Tech||UGA -10.5||UGA -10||UGA -2.5|
|Baylor at TCU||TCU -24||TCU -23.5||TCU -6|
|Iowa at Nebraska||Iowa -3||Iowa -2.5||Neb -3.5|
Alabama at Auburn The lookahead line just a couple weeks ago was Alabama -10, but Auburn’s impressive win over UGA made the market adjust. On Sunday night Alabama opened -4.5 at Bookmaker and has dropped down to -4. However, Pinnacle had opened Alabama -3 and moved up to -4.5, so the perception is different depending on the book you’re looking at. Around the market the Tide has been getting 66% of very early spread tickets, but at +4 and +4.5 books should be able to take in plenty of Auburn tickets at home.
Ohio State at Michigan 5Dimes actually listed this line at Ohio State -13 prior to the market opening on Sunday, but the Buckeyes are now -11/-11.5 around the market. Sharp bettors missed on the Wolverines as double-digit dogs in Wisconsin last weekend, so will they stay away this weekend? Michigan as a big home underdog may be too tempting, though.
Other Notables and Nuggets
Clemson is only getting 45% of early spread bets at South Carolina as 14-point favorites. Perhaps bettors are a little wary of the Tigers after struggling against FSU before 2 late TDs.
UGA is a double-digit favorite at Georgia Tech this weekend in what could be a tricky game for the Bulldogs. More than 70% of bettors like UGA to cover the big spread, and public bettors are likely a little sour on Georgia Tech after getting blown out by Duke on Saturday.
The WVU/Oklahoma game is off the board at CRIS due to WVU QB Will Grier (finger) being out. However, other books around the market like 5Dimes lists the Sooners -23. It’s looking like it will be a TCU/Oklahoma Big 12 title game.
Three of the worst NCAAF ATS teams are favorites this weekend (FSU 0-7-2, BYU 3-9, Miami 2-9)
FSU -5.5 at Florida
BYU -3 at Hawaii
Miami OH -17.5 at Ball St
— ArsenalDMC (@ArsenalDMC) November 20, 2017
What a strange year for both FSU and Florida– the Seminoles still haven’t covered a game this season but they’re sizable favorites at The Swamp this weekend. Florida just fired head coach Jim McElwain but coming off a nice 36-7 win over UAB at home. It’s hard to imagine rushing to bet FSU in this one, but they did put a good effort at Clemson on Saturday and more than 70% of early tickets like FSU to cover.
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