CFB Week 12 Betting Recap: Wisconsin Wins and Wild Winds
Michigan at Wisconsin was the marquee game on Saturday and the Badgers took care of business at home, 24-10. All the early sharp money was on Michigan +10, driving the line to +6.5 by game time, but the Wolverines couldn’t get the backdoor cover. The big upset was Kansas State (+20 spread, +800 moneyline) at Oklahoma State, paving the way for a TCU/Oklahoma Big 12 title game.
The two big themes of the week were Windy Weather and Huge Underdogs, and both did incredibly well. In games with average wind speeds of 10+ MPH, the Under went 17-5. With 15+ MPH winds, the Under went 11-3. These Unders even exceeded our expectations. Big underdogs of more than 30 points continued to roll, going 4-2 ATS on Saturday and now 61-23 ATS on the season. Here’s a look at the rest of the betting trends, nuggets and more from Week 12.
Biggest Moneyline Upsets:
Kansas St +800 at Oklahoma St
Tulane +300 v Houston
Coastal Car +226 at Idaho
Purdue +225 at Iowa
Duke +220 v Georgia Tech
ATS and O/U Trends:
Visitors 35-28 ATS
Dogs 34-30 ATS
Less than 50% of bets 34-29 ATS
Less than 40% of bets 22-15 ATS
Less than 30% of bets 10-6 ATS
Less than 20% of bets 0-4 ATS
Ranked teams went 8-16 ATS and popular ranked teams (70%+ of bets) went just 1-6 ATS
Midweek MACtion Overs had hit at just 44.8% (90-111) coming into the season, but they’ve crushed it so far this season going 15-3-1. Weeknight Overs went 7-1-1 this past week after a hot start for Unders overall this season.
Tom Herman is still ? as an underdog, now 9-1 ATS after the Longhorns’ 28-14 win in Morgantown. Texas was a nice contrarian pick at +3, getting just 30% of tickets.
On Sunday afternoon, UCLA announced that head coach Jim Mora had been fired. The Bruins covered +14 but lost 28-23 vs. USC on Saturday, and Mora went 36-40 ATS in his time at the school. Mora also went 29-11 SU the first half of his tenure and 17-19 SU in the last half. UCLA has lost 3 of their last 4 games and in danger of missing a bowl for the second straight season.
Northwestern has now covered and won 6 straight games after easily beating Minnesota 39-0. All 6 games have had a spread of a touchdown or less: -7 vs. Minnesota, -6.5 vs. Purdue, +1 at Nebraska, +1.5 vs. Michigan St, -2 vs. Iowa, -2.5 at Maryland. There was also sharp movement on NW from -6.5 to -7.5, moving the line through the key number before ultimately closing at -7.
FSU entered the week 0-7-2 ATS on the closing line and was up 56-6 at halftime over Delaware St, looking good to cover -52. However, the teams decided to play 10 minute quarters in the 2nd half as a mercy rule, so game bets and 2H bets were refunded. FSU would have covered both, winning 77-6. FSU remains 0-7-2 ATS on the closing line this year with Florida and UL Monroe still left to play.
Lane Kiffin’s FAU will play North Texas in the Conference USA title game. FAU was 25/1 to win the title before the season, North Texas was 50/1.
Boise State will play Fresno Sate in the Mountain West title game. Boise State was the +150 favorite to win the title before the season, but Fresno State was the biggest longshot in the conference at 100/1.
There were 3 games to feature at least 100 points scored: Penn St 56-44 over Nebraska, Memphis 66-45 over SMU, and North Texas 52-49 over Army. The totals for those games were 58.5, 75.5 and 59.5 respectively.
On the flip side of that, there were 5 shutouts: Indiana 41-0 over Rutgers, Alabama 56-0 over Mercer, Northwestern 39-0 over Minnesota, Georgia Southern 52-0 over South Alabama, and Utah State 38-0 over Hawaii.
Terribly bad beat on the MTSU/WKU Under 56– This game was 10-3 heading into the 4th quarter, going Under by more than 40 points! However, a huge last quarter saw the teams tied 24-24 but still a chance for Under bettors to cash…WKU scored a TD in the 2nd OT to go up 31-24, still a chance for Under bettors to cash…and then MTSU scored a TD to ruin it all. WKU ended up winning 41-38 in 3 OT.
Best ATS in 2017:
Iowa St 9-2
Wake Forest 8-2-1
Worst ATS in 2017:
Miami Ohio 2-9
Bowling Green 2-9
These were the lines for November 25th before the Week 12 games were played Saturday:
Alabama -3.5 at Auburn (now -4.5)
Ohio St -10 at Michigan (now -13)
Louisville -6.5 at Kentucky
UGA -6.5 at GA Tech
FSU -7 at Florida
Clemson -14 at So Carolina
Notre Dame -3.5 at Stanford