For Late Season NFL Bettors, There’s No Place Like Home

In 2003, Richard Borghesi published a paper called, “Price Predictability: Insights from the NFL Point Spread Market.” In this paper, Borghesi analyzed Week 15 through the playoffs from 1981-2000 and found that, after Week 14, there is increased value in NFL betting when isolating large, home underdogs. Last season, we updated this analysis to see…

Bet Labs Mailbag: Is there Value Betting on NFL Moneyline Favorites?

Each week, we use our Bet Labs software to analyze betting system questions submitted by our readers via email and Twitter. We’ve selected our favorite questions and posted answers below. If you’re interested in creating your own data-driven betting systems, contact us for a free live demo of our Bet Labs software. Please note that some Tweets have been modified for grammar,…

Give Thanks for NFL Favorites this Thanksgiving Holiday

Starting this season, the NFL schedule included Thursday Night Football games every week for the first time in league history. In reaction, we analyzed the history of games played on Thursday night in order to find profitable trends that we could apply going forward. Our hypothesis was that short weeks of preparation gave home teams…

What is the Point-Spread Value of Elite NFL Quarterbacks?

Whenever an elite NFL quarterback gets injured, we get asked what kind of point-spread value sportsbooks assign to the player in order to make a line adjustment. In most cases, sportsbook don’t open a line on a game when they know a starting quarterback’s status is in doubt. However, most books opened this week’s Ravens/Steelers…