2017 Passing Touchdown Totals

2017 Passing Touchdown Totals

BetOnline has released more prop bets for the upcoming season, now providing passing touchdown totals for 26 of the starting quarterbacks in the NFL. Last season only five quarterbacks threw for 30+ touchdowns, but the oddsmakers are predicting that number to go up, with nine QBs’ totals at 30 or higher. Let’s take a look at the full list.

Player7/14 (BetOnline)
Tom Brady 35.5 (o-130)
Aaron Rodgers35.5 (o-120)
Drew Brees33.5
Andrew Luck32.5
Matt Ryan32.5 (o-140)
Philip Rivers31.5
Derek Carr30.5 (o-140)
Ben Roethlisberger30.5 (u-125)
Eli Manning30
Jameis Winston29.5 (o-120)
Marcus Mariota27.5 (u-120)
Kirk Cousins 26.5 (u-120)
Russell Wilson26.5 (u-130)
Carson Palmer25.5
Dak Prescott24.5
Andy Dalton24.5
Blake Bortles24.5
Matt Stafford 24.5
Ryan Tannehill24.5
Cam Newton23.5
Carson Wentz22.5 (o-130)
Sam Bradford 22 (o-130)
Joe Flacco21.5
Tyrod Taylor20
Deshaun Watson17.5
Jared Goff 17.5

 

One signal caller expected to see an increase in passing touchdowns is Eli Manning, who threw for 26 last season but is listed above at 30. Eli threw 35 TDs in 2015, and 30 in 2014, and I expect he’ll reach and surpass the 30 mark again in 2017. He’ll be throwing to a receiver combo of Odell Beckham Jr. and Brandon Marshall, a duo that should give him plenty to work with in the red zone. His total also shouldn’t be hindered by a running back stealing his touchdowns. The Giants backfield this season will be led by Paul Perkins and Shane Vereen, neither of whom is listed in the top 20 rushing touchdown totals for 2017.

I also like both Marcus Mariota and Dak Prescott to hit their respective overs. Both young QBs are coming off seasons in which they proved themselves to be reliable passers despite not having many attempts. Because of their breakthrough years, they should see their attempts go up in 2017. Last year Mariota threw for 26 touchdowns on 451 pass attempts, a rate that would require 477 attempts to reach 27.5 TDs. Similary, Dak threw for 23 touchdowns on 459 attempts, meaning he’d need 489 attempts at that rate to reach his total of 24.5. To give some perspective on those totals, Blake Bortles, Carson Wentz, and Kirk Cousins all had over 600 attempts last season.

What do you think? Which QBs will succeed in meeting their expectations? Feel free to leave your picks and predictions in the comments.


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