2017 NFL Touchdown Leader Odds

2017 NFL Touchdown Leader Odds

BetOnline recently came out with odds for regular season leaders in passing, receiving, and rushing touchdowns for the upcoming season. Each category offers a few potential value options, so let’s dive in and break them down.

Most Passing Touchdowns

Last year’s touchdown leader Aaron Rodgers (40 TDs last season) comes in second at +450 behind Super Bowl MVP Tom Brady, whose 28 TDs put him on a pace to throw for 37 touchdowns given a full season. If we assume Brady would’ve hit that total, that puts the top four quarterbacks from last season (Rodgers, Ryan, Brady, Brees) all within three touchdowns of one another. I tend to shy away from the favorites when it comes to betting statistical leaders, but given the parity at the top of this list, there is value in going with a guy like Brees or Ryan. I’ll put my stake in Ryan for the better payout and perhaps a bit of a chip-on-his-shoulder mentality following the loss in the Super Bowl. Having Julio Jones doesn’t hurt either.

Most Receiving Touchdowns

The names at the top of the receiving touchdown list come as no surprise, but this is a case where I’m tempted to look a bit further down the list. A different player has led the league in receiving touchdowns every year since 2008, so there’s potential for a dark horse to take this one. After an off year that was shortened due to injury, A.J. Green (4 TDs in 10 games last season) comes in at +2500. He’s had double digit touchdown totals in three of his six seasons, and given his home run threat, I like the value there. Similarly, Rob Gronkowski (3 TDs in 8 games last year) strikes me as a solid option at +1200. With Martellus Bennett off to Green Bay, Gronk may get more red zone looks this year.

Most Rushing Touchdowns

Looking to take a repeat winner in the rushing touchdown category? Well you’re going to have to bet on the field, as last year’s leader Legarrette Blount (now with Philadelphia) is not listed for this season. The co-favorites come as little surprise though, with both David Johnson and Ezekiel Elliot poised to have potentially terrific seasons. However, their +300 odds seem a bit inflated to me, and lead me to look for a potential dark horse. Fresh out of retirement, Marshawn Lynch is sitting at an enticing +1200. Latavius Murray had 12 rushing TDs in Oakland’s system last season, and after his signing with Minnesota, the door is wide open for Marshawn (13 TDs in his last full season) to step in and thrive. I’m also a bit surprised by Devonta Freeman’s price of +1400. Freeman led the NFL in rushing TDs in 2015 and is the only player to have 10+ rushing TDs in each of the past two seasons.

Who do you think will take the respective touchdown crowns? Will Matt Ryan regress after his MVP season? Can Marshawn Lynch still perform at a high level after a year off? Let us know your picks in the comments and feel free to contact us with any questions at help@sportsinsights.com.