2017 NFL Touchdown Leader Odds

2017 NFL Touchdown Leader Odds

BetOnline recently came out with odds for regular season leaders in passing, receiving, and rushing touchdowns for the upcoming season. Each category offers a few potential value options, so let’s dive in and break them down.

Most Passing Touchdowns

PlayerOdds
Tom Brady+400
Aaron Rodgers+450
Drew Brees+600
Matt Ryan+800
Andrew Luck+900
Philip Rivers+1200
Eli Manning+2000
Ben Roethlisberger+1200
Jameis Winston+2000
Derek Carr+2000
Marcus Mariota+3300
Russell Wilson+3300
Ryan Tannehill+4000
Kirk Cousins+4000
Carson Palmer+3300
Matthew Stafford+4000
Andy Dalton+5000
Dak Prescott+5000
Field (any other quarterback)+1600

Last year’s touchdown leader Aaron Rodgers (40 TDs last season) comes in second at +450 behind Super Bowl MVP Tom Brady, whose 28 TDs put him on a pace to throw for 37 touchdowns given a full season. If we assume Brady would’ve hit that total, that puts the top four quarterbacks from last season (Rodgers, Ryan, Brady, Brees) all within three touchdowns of one another. I tend to shy away from the favorites when it comes to betting statistical leaders, but given the parity at the top of this list, there is value in going with a guy like Brees or Ryan. I’ll put my stake in Ryan for the better payout and perhaps a bit of a chip-on-his-shoulder mentality following the loss in the Super Bowl. Having Julio Jones doesn’t hurt either.

Most Receiving Touchdowns

PlayerOdds
Antonio Brown+450
Jordy Nelson+500
Odell Beckham Jr.+650
Mike Evans+650
Dez Bryant+1000
Rob Gronkowski+1200
Julio Jones+1600
Michael Thomas+1400
Doug Baldwin+2000
Allen Robinson+1600
A.J. Green+2500
Michael Crabtree+2500
Demaryius Thomas+3300
Amari Cooper+3300
Brandin Cooks+3300
Tyler Eifert+2500
Kelvin Benjamin+3300
T.Y. Hilton+3300
DeAndre Hopkins+3300
Alshon Jeffrey+3300
Field (any other player)+600

The names at the top of the receiving touchdown list come as no surprise, but this is a case where I’m tempted to look a bit further down the list. A different player has led the league in receiving touchdowns every year since 2008, so there’s potential for a dark horse to take this one. After an off year that was shortened due to injury, A.J. Green (4 TDs in 10 games last season) comes in at +2500. He’s had double digit touchdown totals in three of his six seasons, and given his home run threat, I like the value there. Similarly, Rob Gronkowski (3 TDs in 8 games last year) strikes me as a solid option at +1200. With Martellus Bennett off to Green Bay, Gronk may get more red zone looks this year.

Most Rushing Touchdowns

Player8/16 (Bookmaker)7/14 (BetOnline)
David Johnson+320+300
Le'Veon Bell+600+1200
LeSean McCoy+800+800
Melvin Gordon+1100+1400
Jay Ajayi+1300+1400
DeMarco Murray+1400+1600
Jordan Howard+1400+2500
Devonta Freeman+1700+1400
Todd Gurley+2000+2000
Adrian Peterson+2000+2500
Leonard Fournette+2400+2000
Eddie Lacy+3000+2500
Lamar Miller+3000+3300
Marshawn Lynch+3000+1200
Field (any other player)+1200+500
Tevin ColemanN/A+3300
Isaiah CrowellN/A+2000
Mike GillisleeN/A+1200
Ezekiel ElliotN/A+300

Looking to take a repeat winner in the rushing touchdown category? Well you’re going to have to bet on the field, as last year’s leader Legarrette Blount (now with Philadelphia) is not listed for this season. The co-favorites come as little surprise though, with both David Johnson and Ezekiel Elliot poised to have potentially terrific seasons. However, their +300 odds seem a bit inflated to me, and lead me to look for a potential dark horse. Fresh out of retirement, Marshawn Lynch is sitting at an enticing +1200. Latavius Murray had 12 rushing TDs in Oakland’s system last season, and after his signing with Minnesota, the door is wide open for Marshawn (13 TDs in his last full season) to step in and thrive. I’m also a bit surprised by Devonta Freeman’s price of +1400. Freeman led the NFL in rushing TDs in 2015 and is the only player to have 10+ rushing TDs in each of the past two seasons.

Who do you think will take the respective touchdown crowns? Will Matt Ryan regress after his MVP season? Can Marshawn Lynch still perform at a high level after a year off? Let us know your picks in the comments and feel free to contact us with any questions at help@sportsinsights.com.

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1 Comment
  • Andrew Pessotti
    July 14, 2017 at 2:54 pm

    Why is gillislee so high on list? That’s a surprise

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