2017 Oscars Odds

It’s the most wonderful time of the year… Hollywood awards season! In January and February, we can look forward to the Golden Globe Awards, the People’s Choice Awards, Screen Actors Guild Awards (SAG) and, of course, Hollywood’s top prize, the Academy Awards.

The 89th Academy Awards will take place on Sunday, February 26th at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles. The ceremony, hosted by Jimmy Kimmel, honors the best films of 2016 in 24 categories, including Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor and Best Actress.

Although the official nominations have not yet been announced, oddsmakers think La La Land will sweep the major categories.

With just a little over 2 months until the ceremony, Paddy Power has posted odds for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, and Best Supporting Actress.

Best Picture

FILM Odds (2/22) Odds (1/24) Odds (12/15)
La La Land -599 -699 -187
Moonlight +550 +650 +600
Hidden Figures +1000 +4000 N/A
Manchester by the Sea +1200 +1200 +800
Lion +6000 +8000 +2500
Fences +6600 +6600 +1400
Hacksaw Ridge +6600 +6600 +1400
Hell or High Water +1000 +8000 N/A
Arrival +1000 +8000 +3300
Silence N/A N/A +1000
Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk N/A N/A +1800
Jackie N/A N/A +2000
20th Century Women N/A N/A +3300
Sully N/A N/A +3300
American Pastoral N/A N/A +3300
Loving N/A N/A +1200
Birth of A Nation N/A N/A +2500
Hail, Caesar! N/A N/A +20000
Cafe Society N/A N/A +20000
Maggies Plan N/A N/A +10000
The Jungle Book N/A N/A +10000
Snowden N/A N/A +5000
Nocturnal Animals N/A N/A +3300

Best Director

DIRECTOR FILM ODDS (2/22) ODDS (1/24) ODDS (12/15)
Damien Chazelle La La Land -2000 -900 -225
Barry Jenkins Moonlight +1100 +900 +600
Kenneth Lonergan Manchester by the Sea +1400 +1000 +350
Denis Villenueve Arrival +5000 +5000 +5000
Mel Gibson Hacksaw Ridge +5000 +6600 +1400
Denzel Washington Fences N/A N/A +1600
Garth Davis Lion N/A N/A +9000
Ang Lee Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk N/A N/A +2500
Nate Parker Birth of a Nation N/A N/A +5000
Clint Eastwood Sully N/A N/A +5000
Pablo Larrain Jackie N/A N/A +5000
Jeff Nichols Loving N/A N/A +1600
Martin Scorcese Silence N/A N/A +2500

Best Actor

Actor Film Odds (2/22) Odds (1/24) Odds (12/15)
Casey Affleck Manchester by the Sea -175 -500 +100
Denzel Washington Fences +125 +450 +200
Ryan Gosling La La Land +1100 +1000 +600
Andrew Garfield Hacksaw Ridge +3300 +3300 +1000
Viggo Mortensen Captain Fantastic +8000 +8000 +2500
Michael Keaton The Founder N/A N/A +1400
Hugh Grant Florence Foster Jenkins N/A N/A +2000
Tom Hanks Sully N/A N/A +2000
Joe Alwyn Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk N/A N/A +2500
Joel Edgerton Loving N/A N/A +1000
Ryan Reynolds Deadpool N/A N/A +3300
Colin Farrell The Lobster N/A N/A +2000
Jake Gyllenhaal Nocturnal Animals N/A N/A +5000
Nate Parker Birth of A Nation N/A N/A +5000
Shia LeBeouf American Honey N/A N/A +5000
Ewan McGregor American Pastoral N/A N/A +5000
Joseph Gordon-Levitt Snowden N/A N/A +5000
Jonah Hill War Dogs N/A N/A +4000

Best Actress

Actress Film Odds (2/22) Odds (1/24) Odds (12/15)
Emma Stone La La Land -599 -137 +110
Natalie Portman Jackie +400 +175 +188
Isabelle Huppert Elle +900 +550 +1400
Ruth Negga Loving +4000 +4000 +450
Meryl Streep Florence Foster Jenkins +6600 +5000 +3300
Emily Blunt The Girl on the Train N/A N/A +5000
Jessica Chastain Miss Sloane N/A N/A +1800
Rooney Mara Lion N/A N/A +5000
Lily Collins Rules Don't Apply N/A N/A +2200
Amy Adams Arrival N/A N/A +850
Alicia Vikander The Light Between Oceans N/A N/A +5000
Jennifer Lawrence Passengers N/A N/A +5000
Hailee Steinfeld Edge of Seventeen N/A N/A +2200
Annette Bening 20th Century Women N/A N/A +750

Best Supporting Actor

Actress Film Odds (2/22) Odds (1/24) Odds (12/15)
Mahershala Ali Moonlight -1000 -699 -150
Dev Patel Lion +700 +2000 +900
Jeff Bridges Hell or High Water +1200 +1200 +700
Michael Shannon Nocturnal Animals +1200 +1000 +650
Lucas Hedges Manchester by the Sea +1600 +1400 +650
Liam Neeson Silence N/A N/A +900
Hugh Grant Florence Foster Jenkins N/A N/A +1600
Isei Igata Silence N/A N/A +2000
John Goodman 10 Cloverfield Lane N/A N/A +3300
Steve Martin Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk N/A N/A +3300
Stephen Henderson Fences N/A N/A +3300
Ben Foster Hell of High Water N/A N/A +5000
Kevin Costner Hidden Figures N/A N/A +5000

Best Supporting Actress

Actress Film Odds (2/22) Odds (1/24) Odds (12/15)
Viola Davis Fences -1798 -1400 -225
Michelle Williams Manchester by the Sea +1000 +1000 +400
Naomie Harris Moonlight +1400 +1400 +500
Nicole Kidman Lion +2500 +3300 +1000
Octavia Spencer Hidden Figures +8000 +8000 +5000
Margo Martindale The Hollas N/A N/A +5000
Aja Naomi King Birth of A Nation N/A N/A +3300
Felicity Jones A Monster Calls N/A N/A +3300
Janelle Monae Moonlight N/A N/A +2000
Amy Adams Nocturnal Animals N/A N/A +5000
Greta Gerwig 20th Century Women N/A N/A +3300
Dakota Fanning American Pastoral N/A N/A +5000
Elle Fanning 20th Century Women N/A N/A +5000
Kate Winslet Collateral Beauty N/A N/A +5000
Kristen Stewart Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk N/A N/A +5000
Kiera Knightley Collateral Beauty N/A N/A +5000

The much-buzzed-about L.A. set musical La La Land is dominating the odds race as the front-runner for most of the Oscars’ directing, acting, music and visual categories. Starring former Mouseketeer Ryan Gosling and Emma Stone, the musical tells the story of two struggling lovers in modern day L.A. From striking visuals to inspiring musical sets, the film has already won awards at the Capri Hollywood International Film Festival for best ensemble cast and best film score.

Another strong Best Picture contender includes the heartbreaking drama Manchester by the Sea (+800). Casey Affleck’s performance as troubled janitor Lee Chandler, who finds meaning when he’s forced to move to the North Shore to take custody of his late brother’s son, may be the performance that will land this underdog some Hollywood glory. Affleck is the Best Actor (+100) frontrunner for his part in Manchester by the Sea. He was Oscar-nominated for Best Supporting Actor, in 2008, for his breakout role in the Assassination of Jesse James, but he’s yet to emerge from the Oscar race victorious.

Watch out for Moonlight (+600), the story of a young black man growing up in a rough neighborhood in Miami. I think it will be a close race with La La Land for Best Picture.

The Golden Globe nominations were released earlier this week and, in years past, they have provided an interesting road map for how the Oscar race might turn out. But, as we’ve seen in recent years, a Globe win doesn’t guarantee an Oscar lock so it’s probably not the most accurate Oscar barometer.

Nominations for the Screen Actors Guild Awards were announced yesterday. History has shown the best actor, actress, and supporting actor winners tend to forecast which nominees in those categories will also emerge as winners at the Oscars, so make sure you tune in for the late-January ceremony.

1/24/17 Update:

Early this morning, nominations for the Academy Awards were announced via live stream.

La La Land remains the strong favorite overall, dancing away with 14 nominations and matching a record held by Titanic and All About Eve. La La Land landed a record seven wins at the Golden Globes and remains the favorite for Best Picture (-699), Best Director (Damien Chazelle -900), and Best Actress (Emma Stone -137).

Moonlight and Arrival both received nominations in eight categories. Lion, Hacksaw Ridge and Manchester by the Sea received six nominations, while Fences had four noms.

This year’s nominations are vastly different from last year, where the #OscarsSoWhite controversy took center stage. After two years in which the Oscars failed to nominate a black actor in any of the acting categories, nominations this year represent a diverse pool of actors and films.  This year, voters actually chose the largest number of black candidates in Oscar history.

Surprise additions include Mel Gibson’s best director nomination; he’s currently +6600 at Paddy Power.  Gibson is slowly making his way back into the Hollywood inner sanctum, after being an outcast for about a decade due to anti-Semitic remarks and well-publicized personal and legal troubles.  Michael Shannon’s best supporting actor nomination (+1000) for Nocturnal Animals has been a pleasant surprise, as he was one of the high points of the film.

2/22/17 Update:

Let the Oscars countdown commence! You can officially count the days remaining until the ceremony on just one hand. I’ve updated the 6 major categories with today’s odds and I’ll give you a quick breakdown of where I think there’s value.

Best Picture and Best Director

Although it’s not my first choice to take home the Oscar, I think La La Land (-599) will win the Oscar for Best Picture and Best Director. With 14 nominations, the musical has dominated this year’s Oscars in almost an unprecedented way. Although I don’t necessarily agree that it is the best picture of the year (my vote is for Moonlight), I think La La Land will emerge victorious.

As for Best Director, I also believe it will go to La La Land’s Damien Chazelle (-2000). La La Land has been a huge frontrunner for Best Picture and I don’t see how anyone but Chazelle will walk away with the Oscar.

Best Actor

It’s a close race for Best Actor between Denzel Washington (Fences) and Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea), but I think there’s value on Washington (+125) even though Affleck (-175) has consistently remained the favorite. Washington took home “Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role” at the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards and, as I’ve said before, the SAG awards are in my opinion the best Oscars barometer.

Best Actress

Although Natalie Portman’s (+400) performance as Jackie Kennedy, in Jackie, was outstanding, I believe the Oscar in this category will go to the favorite Emma Stone (-599) for La La Land.  It seemed like the role was made for her, which is why I was surprised to hear that Emma Watson was originally set to star in the role. Allegedly, Watson was too demanding and I bet producers are secretly rejoicing.

Best Supporting Actor

I think this one will go to favorite Mahershala Ali (-1000) for Moonlight. Last month, I said to watch out for this movie because I thought it had a good chance of dominating in some of the categories. In my opinion, Ali’s performance will land him the Hollywood gold.

Best Supporting Actress

Viola Davis (-1798) was phenomenal as “Rose Maxson,” the estranged housewife, in Fences.  The Julliard School graduate beautifully brings to life August Wilson’s play. It’s shocking that that she has never won an Oscar (she has been nominated in the past for her roles in Doubt and The Help), but I think this year she’ll be the Leonardo DiCaprio of the ceremony.

What do you think? Any surprises or snubs? Leave your thoughts in the comment section below.

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Nicole Patti

Nicole Patti is the Marketing Coordinator for Sports Insights. She can be reached directly at nicole@sportsinsights.com.

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